AFL dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 90% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Aflac (AFL) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.27), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, AFL sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 19, 2026 (±0 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
90%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.27
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 90% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.27 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.35% | +0.23pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.31% | +1.09pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 28 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±0 days.
Dividend
$0.61
Per-event yield
0.52%
Annualized yield
2.03%
Previously paid
May 20, 2026 ($0.61)
Last record date
May 20, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 1, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Aflac (AFL). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.61 | -0.39% | $118.41 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.65% | -4.37% | |
| Q1 | $0.61 | -0.55% | $115.42 | >30 | no | no | -4.14% | -2.05% | |
| Q4 | $0.58 | -0.84% | $111.76 | 5 | yes | yes | -3.10% | -0.56% | |
| Q3 | $0.58 | -0.24% | $106.89 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.00% | +1.03% | |
| Q2 | $0.58 | -0.81% | $105.62 | 28 | no | yes | -3.74% | -2.11% | |
| Q1 | $0.58 | -0.50% | $104.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.21% | +2.04% | |
| Q4 | $0.50 | -0.14% | $111.13 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.52% | +3.12% | |
| Q3 | $0.50 | -0.37% | $104.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.37% | +4.32% | |
| Q2 | $0.50 | -0.51% | $87.69 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.29% | -0.01% | |
| Q1 | $0.50 | -1.20% | $79.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.26% | +1.68% | |
| Q4 | $0.42 | 0.09% | $81.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.25% | +1.09% | |
| Q3 | $0.42 | -0.56% | $74.45 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.24% | +0.85% | |
| Q2 | $0.42 | -0.71% | $66.09 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.91% | +0.56% | |
| Q1 | $0.42 | -0.92% | $71.01 | >30 | no | no | -4.91% | -3.14% | |
| Q4 | $0.40 | 0.60% | $68.71 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.60% | +5.36% | |
| Q3 | $0.40 | -0.50% | $62.21 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.90% | -2.70% | |
| Q2 | $0.40 | 1.12% | $56.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.58% | +2.30% | |
| Q1 | $0.40 | 0.44% | $64.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.28% | -3.47% | |
| Q4 | $0.33 | 0.17% | $57.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.20% | -0.76% | |
| Q3 | $0.33 | -1.18% | $57.52 | 7 | no | yes | -3.51% | -0.83% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
Pre-filled with AFL's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical AFL ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.05%
Win rate (20 trades)
80%
Cumulative P&L
+0.97%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+120.27%
Best event
+0.71%
Worst event
-3.14%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · AFL (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -0.83% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.64% | |
| +0.58% | |
| -3.14% | |
| +0.64% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.52% | |
| +0.63% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.56% | |
| -2.11% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +0.52% | |
| -2.05% | |
| +0.52% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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