Aflac (AFL) Dividend Capture: 0.53% per event (2.1% annualized)
AFL
Aflac (AFL) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.28), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, AFL sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is May 20, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.61.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 90%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.28in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 90%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.28in line with sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -0.38%+0.20pp vs sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 50%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -3.00%+1.38pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 28
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
- Dividend
- $0.61
- Per-event yield
- 0.53%
- Annualized yield
- 2.08%
- Previously paid
- Feb 18, 2026 ($0.61)
- Last record date
- Feb 18, 2026
- Last payment date
- Mar 2, 2026
How AFL ranks in Financial Services
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (101 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#71of 101
Beats ~30% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#1of 101
Beats ~99% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#60of 101
Beats ~41% of peers on this metric
AFL Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Aflac (AFL). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.61 | -0.55% | $115.42 | >30 | no | no | -4.14% | -2.05% | |
| Q4 | $0.58 | -0.84% | $111.76 | 5 | yes | yes | -3.10% | -0.56% | |
| Q3 | $0.58 | -0.24% | $106.89 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.00% | +1.03% | |
| Q2 | $0.58 | -0.81% | $105.62 | 28 | no | yes | -3.74% | -2.11% | |
| Q1 | $0.58 | -0.50% | $104.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.21% | +2.04% | |
| Q4 | $0.50 | -0.14% | $111.13 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.52% | +3.12% | |
| Q3 | $0.50 | -0.37% | $104.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.37% | +4.32% | |
| Q2 | $0.50 | -0.51% | $87.69 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.29% | -0.01% | |
| Q1 | $0.50 | -1.20% | $79.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.26% | +1.68% | |
| Q4 | $0.42 | 0.09% | $81.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.25% | +1.09% | |
| Q3 | $0.42 | -0.56% | $74.45 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.24% | +0.85% | |
| Q2 | $0.42 | -0.71% | $66.09 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.91% | +0.56% | |
| Q1 | $0.42 | -0.92% | $71.01 | >30 | no | no | -4.91% | -3.14% | |
| Q4 | $0.40 | 0.60% | $68.71 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.60% | +5.36% | |
| Q3 | $0.40 | -0.50% | $62.21 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.90% | -2.70% | |
| Q2 | $0.40 | 1.12% | $56.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.58% | +2.30% | |
| Q1 | $0.40 | 0.44% | $64.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.28% | -3.47% | |
| Q4 | $0.33 | 0.17% | $57.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.20% | -0.76% | |
| Q3 | $0.33 | -1.18% | $57.52 | 7 | no | yes | -3.51% | -0.83% | |
| Q2 | $0.33 | -0.89% | $56.42 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.64% | -0.58% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.61
- Gap %
- -0.55%
- Pre-ex close
- $115.42
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -4.14%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.05%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.58
- Gap %
- -0.84%
- Pre-ex close
- $111.76
- High touch (td)
- 5
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.10%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.56%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.58
- Gap %
- -0.24%
- Pre-ex close
- $106.89
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.00%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.03%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.58
- Gap %
- -0.81%
- Pre-ex close
- $105.62
- High touch (td)
- 28
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.74%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.11%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.58
- Gap %
- -0.50%
- Pre-ex close
- $104.26
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.21%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.04%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.50
- Gap %
- -0.14%
- Pre-ex close
- $111.13
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.52%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.12%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.50
- Gap %
- -0.37%
- Pre-ex close
- $104.80
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.37%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.32%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.50
- Gap %
- -0.51%
- Pre-ex close
- $87.69
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.29%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.01%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.50
- Gap %
- -1.20%
- Pre-ex close
- $79.38
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.26%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.68%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.42
- Gap %
- 0.09%
- Pre-ex close
- $81.43
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.25%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.09%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.42
- Gap %
- -0.56%
- Pre-ex close
- $74.45
- High touch (td)
- 3
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.24%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.85%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.42
- Gap %
- -0.71%
- Pre-ex close
- $66.09
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.91%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.56%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.42
- Gap %
- -0.92%
- Pre-ex close
- $71.01
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -4.91%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.14%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.40
- Gap %
- 0.60%
- Pre-ex close
- $68.71
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- 0.60%
- P&L 5d %
- +5.36%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.40
- Gap %
- -0.50%
- Pre-ex close
- $62.21
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.90%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.70%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.40
- Gap %
- 1.12%
- Pre-ex close
- $56.19
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.58%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.30%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.40
- Gap %
- 0.44%
- Pre-ex close
- $64.22
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -9.28%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.47%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.33
- Gap %
- 0.17%
- Pre-ex close
- $57.57
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.20%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.76%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.33
- Gap %
- -1.18%
- Pre-ex close
- $57.52
- High touch (td)
- 7
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.51%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.83%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.33
- Gap %
- -0.89%
- Pre-ex close
- $56.42
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.64%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.58%
AFL Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day1365%
- 2–3 days210%
- 4–5 days15%
- 6–10 days15%
- 11–30 days15%
- 30+210%
65% within 1d · 80% within 5d · 90% within 30d
AFL Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with AFL's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $122.00
- After-tax dividend
- $79.30
- Slippage round-trip
- -$23.08
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$56.22
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.24%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~12.3%
AFL Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical AFL ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · AFL (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.58% | |
| -0.83% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.64% | |
| +0.58% | |
| -3.14% | |
| +0.64% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.52% | |
| +0.63% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.56% | |
| -2.11% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +0.52% | |
| -2.05% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See AFL seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for AFL?
Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for Aflac (AFL), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take AFL to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, AFL touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 28 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on AFL large enough to capture?
AFL has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.28 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for AFL?
The next ex-dividend date for Aflac (AFL) is May 20, 2026, confirmed (declared by the company).
How does AFL compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Financial Services, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. AFL sits at 90% — at or below the sector benchmark.
Why does AFL dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.