S&P 500 benchmark & data range
Profile: S&P 500 index · Closing prices in our database from .
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Historical figures and the interactive tools on this page are illustrative and for educational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
S&P 500 bear markets (20%+ peak-to-trough)
Every S&P 500 bear market since 1929 eventually recovered to a new high — the question was never whether, but how long. Peak-to-trough losses ranged from -25.4% (2022) to -86.2% (1929). Compare depth, decline and recovery duration, and crash velocity below — click a bar or a label for details.
Bear markets
9
Avg. drawdown
-46.1%
Deepest
-86.2%
Median underwater
5 years and 6 months
Peak-to-trough loss (0% at left, deeper losses toward the right). The dashed line marks the −20% bear-market threshold.
2022 Inflation
Fed tightening cycle; drawdown driven by rates and growth concerns.
- Peak → trough
- →
- Drawdown
- -25.4%
- Trigger
- Rate hikes
Approx. returns after trough
All bear markets — full data
Every S&P 500 bear market of 20%+ since 1929, with drawdown depth, decline and recovery duration, total time underwater, and the trigger. Sortable by column on desktop.
| Bear market | Trigger | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1929 Great Depression | -86.2% | 2 years and 8 months | 20 years and 6 months | 23 years and 3 months | Speculative bubble |
| 1937 Fed Tightening | -54.5% | 1 year and 1 month | 7 years and 11 months | 9 years | Premature tightening |
| 1973 Oil Crisis | -48.2% | 1 year and 9 months | 5 years and 11 months | 7 years and 7 months | OPEC embargo |
| 1980 Volcker Tightening | -27.1% | 1 year and 8 months | 3 months | 1 year and 11 months | Volcker rate hikes |
| 1987 Black Monday | -33.5% | 3 months | 1 year and 9 months | 2 years | Program trading |
| 2000 Dot-com | -49.1% | 2 years and 7 months | 5 years | 7 years and 6 months | Tech bubble |
| 2007 Financial Crisis | -56.8% | 1 year and 5 months | 4 years and 1 month | 5 years and 6 months | Subprime/banking |
| 2020 Crash | -33.9% | 1 month | 5 months | 6 months | Market shutdown |
| 2022 Inflation | -25.4% | 9 months | 1 year and 1 month | 1 year and 10 months | Rate hikes |
- 1929 Great Depression-86.2%
- 1937 Fed Tightening-54.5%
- 1973 Oil Crisis-48.2%
- 1980 Volcker Tightening-27.1%
- 1987 Black Monday-33.5%
- 2000 Dot-com-49.1%
- 2007 Financial Crisis-56.8%
- 2020 Crash-33.9%
- 2022 Inflation-25.4%
Drawdown recovery math
Percent losses and percent gains are not mirror images: after a drawdown, the same dollar gain is a larger percentage of a smaller balance — so you need a bigger rebound % to get back to even. A 20% loss needs a 25% gain to break even; a 50% loss needs 100%; a 90% loss needs 900%. Use the slider or a preset to compare loss vs. required recovery.
Portfolio loss
33%
Gain needed to recover
49.3%
Common drawdowns
Historical bear markets
Gain needed to recover from a loss
The deeper the drawdown, the disproportionately larger the rebound required to get back to even.
| Portfolio loss | Gain needed to recover |
|---|---|
| −10% | +11.1% |
| −20% | +25% |
| −30% | +42.9% |
| −40% | +66.7% |
| −50% | +100% |
| −60% | +150% |
| −70% | +233.3% |
| −80% | +400% |
| −90% | +900% |
Missing the best days
Illustrative S&P 500 total-return scenario (Jan 3, 2003 – Dec 30, 2022): a $10,000 stake grew to $64,844 if you stayed fully invested. Each bar is ending wealth after missing the strongest N single days. Methodology is explained in the section below.
Missing just the 10 best days cut ending wealth to $29,708 — less than half; missing the 60 best left $4,205, below the $10,000 you started with.
Ending wealth by scenario
A $10,000 S&P 500 stake (total return, 2003–2022), by number of best single days missed.
| Scenario | Ending value | Annualized | vs. fully invested |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fully invested | $64,844 | 9.8% | — |
| Missed 10 best | $29,708 | 5.6% | −54.2% |
| Missed 20 best | $17,826 | 3% | −72.5% |
| Missed 30 best | $11,377 | 0.6% | −82.5% |
| Missed 60 best | $4,205 | −4.2% | −93.5% |
Largest single-day moves (context)
Representative extreme single-day moves from each S&P 500 bear market since 1929. Note the 1973 Oil Crisis entries — that bear market was a slow grind with no days in the all-time top 20.
Strongest days
| Date | Return | Context |
|---|---|---|
| +12.53% | Depression rebound | |
| +4.6% | 1974 Oil Crisis bottom | |
| +4.76% | Volcker bear rally | |
| +9.1% | Black Monday rebound | |
| +5.01% | Dot-com rate-cut rally | |
| +5.73% | Dot-com bottom rally | |
| +11.58% | Financial Crisis | |
| +10.79% | Financial Crisis | |
| +6.92% | Financial Crisis | |
| +7.08% | March 2009 bottom | |
| +9.29% | 2020 Crash | |
| +9.38% | 2020 Crash rebound | |
| +5.54% | 2022 CPI relief rally |
- +12.53%
- +4.6%
- +4.76%
- +9.1%
- +5.01%
- +5.73%
- +11.58%
- +10.79%
- +6.92%
- +7.08%
- +9.29%
- +9.38%
- +5.54%
Weakest days
| Date | Return | Context |
|---|---|---|
| -12.34% | Black Monday 1929 | |
| -10.16% | Black Tuesday | |
| -9.27% | 1937 pre-war crash | |
| -3.67% | 1974 Oil Crisis | |
| -20.47% | Black Monday 1987 | |
| -8.28% | Black Monday aftershock | |
| -5.83% | Dot-com crash | |
| -4.92% | Post-9/11 reopening | |
| -8.81% | Lehman aftermath | |
| -9.03% | Financial Crisis | |
| -9.51% | 2020 Crash | |
| -11.98% | 2020 Crash | |
| -4.32% | 2022 CPI shock |
- -12.34%
- -10.16%
- -9.27%
- -3.67%
- -20.47%
- -8.28%
- -5.83%
- -4.92%
- -8.81%
- -9.03%
- -9.51%
- -11.98%
- -4.32%
Cost of panic vs staying invested
Invest at the cycle peak, then compare selling near the trough (approximated with the historical drawdown) to holding through today using real S&P 500 closing prices.
Community sentiment (today)
Anonymous aggregate poll reset daily (UTC). One vote per signed-in user per day.
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Bear market readiness scorecard
For reflection only — not advice. Answer each question; your total maps to a rough readiness band.