Arthur J. Gallagher & (AJG) Dividend Capture: 0.30% per event (1.3% annualized)
Arthur J. Gallagher & (AJG) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.15), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, AJG sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Jun 5, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.70.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.15-0.15 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.15-0.15 vs sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -0.18%+0.40pp vs sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 40%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -3.83%+0.55pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 14
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
- Dividend
- $0.70
- Per-event yield
- 0.30%
- Annualized yield
- 1.31%
- Previously paid
- Mar 6, 2026 ($0.70)
- Last record date
- Mar 6, 2026
- Last payment date
- Mar 20, 2026
How AJG ranks in Financial Services
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (101 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#31of 101
Beats ~69% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#1of 101
Beats ~99% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#84of 101
Beats ~17% of peers on this metric
AJG Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Arthur J. Gallagher & (AJG). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.70 | -0.59% | $229.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.51% | -9.15% | |
| Q4 | $0.65 | -0.29% | $245.41 | 5 | yes | yes | -3.70% | +4.33% | |
| Q3 | $0.65 | -0.33% | $300.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.80% | -0.76% | |
| Q2 | $0.65 | 0.11% | $328.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.83% | -3.29% | |
| Q1 | $0.65 | -0.37% | $339.85 | 14 | no | yes | -6.36% | -4.11% | |
| Q4 | $0.60 | -0.73% | $303.58 | >30 | no | no | -8.79% | -6.06% | |
| Q3 | $0.60 | -0.18% | $295.55 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.65% | +0.83% | |
| Q2 | $0.60 | -0.35% | $251.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.37% | +2.86% | |
| Q1 | $0.60 | -0.15% | $245.47 | 4 | yes | yes | -1.73% | +2.05% | |
| Q4 | $0.55 | -0.12% | $245.02 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.57% | -1.40% | |
| Q3 | $0.55 | -0.10% | $230.83 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.76% | -0.91% | |
| Q2 | $0.55 | 0.03% | $200.33 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.90% | +2.53% | |
| Q1 | $0.55 | -0.62% | $187.78 | 2 | yes | yes | -7.10% | -0.95% | |
| Q4 | $0.51 | 0.45% | $199.11 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.97% | -1.79% | |
| Q3 | $0.51 | -0.69% | $181.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.27% | +4.05% | |
| Q2 | $0.51 | 0.00% | $160.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.86% | -1.89% | |
| Q1 | $0.51 | 0.36% | $158.78 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.46% | -2.03% | |
| Q4 | $0.48 | 0.36% | $162.33 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.29% | +3.59% | |
| Q3 | $0.48 | 0.17% | $144.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.32% | +0.08% | |
| Q2 | $0.48 | -0.46% | $146.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.42% | -1.25% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.70
- Gap %
- -0.59%
- Pre-ex close
- $229.65
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -11.51%
- P&L 5d %
- -9.15%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.65
- Gap %
- -0.29%
- Pre-ex close
- $245.41
- High touch (td)
- 5
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.70%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.33%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.65
- Gap %
- -0.33%
- Pre-ex close
- $300.22
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.80%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.76%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.65
- Gap %
- 0.11%
- Pre-ex close
- $328.10
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.83%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.29%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.65
- Gap %
- -0.37%
- Pre-ex close
- $339.85
- High touch (td)
- 14
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.36%
- P&L 5d %
- -4.11%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.60
- Gap %
- -0.73%
- Pre-ex close
- $303.58
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -8.79%
- P&L 5d %
- -6.06%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.60
- Gap %
- -0.18%
- Pre-ex close
- $295.55
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.65%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.83%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.60
- Gap %
- -0.35%
- Pre-ex close
- $251.64
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.37%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.86%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.60
- Gap %
- -0.15%
- Pre-ex close
- $245.47
- High touch (td)
- 4
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.73%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.05%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.55
- Gap %
- -0.12%
- Pre-ex close
- $245.02
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.57%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.40%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.55
- Gap %
- -0.10%
- Pre-ex close
- $230.83
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.76%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.91%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.55
- Gap %
- 0.03%
- Pre-ex close
- $200.33
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.90%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.53%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.55
- Gap %
- -0.62%
- Pre-ex close
- $187.78
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -7.10%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.95%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.51
- Gap %
- 0.45%
- Pre-ex close
- $199.11
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.97%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.79%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.51
- Gap %
- -0.69%
- Pre-ex close
- $181.57
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.27%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.05%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.51
- Gap %
- 0.00%
- Pre-ex close
- $160.51
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.86%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.89%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.51
- Gap %
- 0.36%
- Pre-ex close
- $158.78
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.46%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.03%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.48
- Gap %
- 0.36%
- Pre-ex close
- $162.33
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.29%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.59%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.48
- Gap %
- 0.17%
- Pre-ex close
- $144.44
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.32%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.08%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.48
- Gap %
- -0.46%
- Pre-ex close
- $146.65
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.42%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.25%
AJG Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day1575%
- 2–3 days15%
- 4–5 days210%
- 6–10 days00%
- 11–30 days15%
- 30+15%
75% within 1d · 90% within 5d · 95% within 30d
AJG Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with AJG's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $140.00
- After-tax dividend
- $91.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$45.93
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$45.07
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.10%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~4.9%
AJG Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical AJG ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · AJG (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.33% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.20% | |
| -6.06% | |
| -4.11% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.30% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See AJG seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for AJG?
Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for Arthur J. Gallagher & (AJG), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take AJG to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, AJG touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 14 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on AJG large enough to capture?
AJG has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.15 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for AJG?
The next ex-dividend date for Arthur J. Gallagher & (AJG) is Jun 5, 2026, confirmed (declared by the company).
How does AJG compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Financial Services, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. AJG sits at 95% — at or below the sector benchmark.
Why does AJG dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.