AJG dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 95% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Arthur J. Gallagher & (AJG) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.15), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, AJG sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Sep 8, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.70.
Touch rate (30d)
95%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.15
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.15 | -0.15 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.12% | +0.46pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.83% | +0.57pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 14 | — |
Confirmed by company declaration.
Dividend
$0.70
Per-event yield
0.33%
Annualized yield
1.11%
Previously paid
Jun 5, 2026 ($0.70)
Last record date
Jun 5, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 19, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Arthur J. Gallagher & (AJG). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.70 | 0.61% | $211.00 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.14% | +3.98% | |
| Q1 | $0.70 | -0.59% | $229.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.51% | -9.15% | |
| Q4 | $0.65 | -0.29% | $245.41 | 5 | yes | yes | -3.70% | +4.33% | |
| Q3 | $0.65 | -0.33% | $300.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.80% | -0.76% | |
| Q2 | $0.65 | 0.11% | $328.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.83% | -3.29% | |
| Q1 | $0.65 | -0.37% | $339.85 | 14 | no | yes | -6.36% | -4.11% | |
| Q4 | $0.60 | -0.73% | $303.58 | >30 | no | no | -8.79% | -6.06% | |
| Q3 | $0.60 | -0.18% | $295.55 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.65% | +0.83% | |
| Q2 | $0.60 | -0.35% | $251.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.37% | +2.86% | |
| Q1 | $0.60 | -0.15% | $245.47 | 4 | yes | yes | -1.73% | +2.05% | |
| Q4 | $0.55 | -0.12% | $245.02 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.57% | -1.40% | |
| Q3 | $0.55 | -0.10% | $230.83 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.76% | -0.91% | |
| Q2 | $0.55 | 0.03% | $200.33 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.90% | +2.53% | |
| Q1 | $0.55 | -0.62% | $187.78 | 2 | yes | yes | -7.10% | -0.95% | |
| Q4 | $0.51 | 0.45% | $199.11 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.97% | -1.79% | |
| Q3 | $0.51 | -0.69% | $181.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.27% | +4.05% | |
| Q2 | $0.51 | 0.00% | $160.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.86% | -1.89% | |
| Q1 | $0.51 | 0.36% | $158.78 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.46% | -2.03% | |
| Q4 | $0.48 | 0.36% | $162.33 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.29% | +3.59% | |
| Q3 | $0.48 | 0.17% | $144.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.32% | +0.08% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 15 | 75% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with AJG's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical AJG ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-0.27%
Win rate (20 trades)
90%
Cumulative P&L
-5.33%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+57.67%
Best event
+0.33%
Worst event
-6.06%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · AJG (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.33% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.20% | |
| -6.06% | |
| -4.11% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.33% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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