Avery Dennison (AVY) Dividend Capture: 0.52% per event (2.4% annualized)
Avery Dennison (AVY) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.23), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, AVY sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Jun 3, 2026, with an expected dividend of $1.00.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 90%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.23in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 90%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.23in line with sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -0.57%-0.22pp vs sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 30%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -3.43%+0.54pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 21
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
- Dividend
- $1.00
- Per-event yield
- 0.52%
- Annualized yield
- 2.36%
- Previously paid
- Mar 4, 2026 ($0.94)
- Last record date
- Mar 4, 2026
- Last payment date
- Mar 18, 2026
How AVY ranks in Industrials
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (87 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#67of 87
Beats ~23% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#1of 87
Beats ~99% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#28of 87
Beats ~68% of peers on this metric
AVY Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Avery Dennison (AVY). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.94 | -0.63% | $190.64 | >30 | no | no | -11.33% | -7.94% | |
| Q4 | $0.94 | -0.38% | $172.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.69% | +3.38% | |
| Q3 | $0.94 | -0.98% | $169.31 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.20% | -2.15% | |
| Q2 | $0.94 | -0.20% | $179.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.26% | -0.76% | |
| Q1 | $0.88 | -0.23% | $181.33 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.54% | -1.87% | |
| Q4 | $0.88 | -0.90% | $205.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.40% | -3.29% | |
| Q3 | $0.88 | -0.19% | $219.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.31% | -0.33% | |
| Q2 | $0.88 | -0.41% | $227.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.33% | +0.71% | |
| Q1 | $0.81 | -0.46% | $216.13 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.87% | +0.68% | |
| Q4 | $0.81 | -0.98% | $195.52 | 7 | no | yes | -2.80% | -1.93% | |
| Q3 | $0.81 | -0.98% | $189.02 | >30 | no | no | -5.15% | -3.35% | |
| Q2 | $0.81 | -0.80% | $166.02 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.23% | +1.83% | |
| Q1 | $0.75 | -0.81% | $181.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.69% | -1.84% | |
| Q4 | $0.75 | -0.37% | $191.36 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.31% | -2.70% | |
| Q3 | $0.75 | 0.35% | $185.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.23% | -0.03% | |
| Q2 | $0.75 | -1.47% | $173.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.76% | +5.05% | |
| Q1 | $0.68 | -1.11% | $176.20 | 21 | no | yes | -11.17% | -9.42% | |
| Q4 | $0.68 | -1.28% | $215.53 | 6 | no | yes | -6.06% | +0.17% | |
| Q3 | $0.68 | -0.25% | $226.62 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.65% | -0.45% | |
| Q2 | $0.68 | 0.72% | $220.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.22% | -0.72% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.94
- Gap %
- -0.63%
- Pre-ex close
- $190.64
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -11.33%
- P&L 5d %
- -7.94%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.94
- Gap %
- -0.38%
- Pre-ex close
- $172.22
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.69%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.38%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.94
- Gap %
- -0.98%
- Pre-ex close
- $169.31
- High touch (td)
- 3
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.20%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.15%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.94
- Gap %
- -0.20%
- Pre-ex close
- $179.65
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.26%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.76%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.88
- Gap %
- -0.23%
- Pre-ex close
- $181.33
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.54%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.87%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.88
- Gap %
- -0.90%
- Pre-ex close
- $205.19
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -7.40%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.29%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.88
- Gap %
- -0.19%
- Pre-ex close
- $219.91
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.31%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.33%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.88
- Gap %
- -0.41%
- Pre-ex close
- $227.47
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.33%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.71%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.81
- Gap %
- -0.46%
- Pre-ex close
- $216.13
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.87%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.68%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.81
- Gap %
- -0.98%
- Pre-ex close
- $195.52
- High touch (td)
- 7
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.80%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.93%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.81
- Gap %
- -0.98%
- Pre-ex close
- $189.02
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -5.15%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.35%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.81
- Gap %
- -0.80%
- Pre-ex close
- $166.02
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.23%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.83%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.75
- Gap %
- -0.81%
- Pre-ex close
- $181.87
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -7.69%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.84%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.75
- Gap %
- -0.37%
- Pre-ex close
- $191.36
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -8.31%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.70%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.75
- Gap %
- 0.35%
- Pre-ex close
- $185.48
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -8.23%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.03%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.75
- Gap %
- -1.47%
- Pre-ex close
- $173.61
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -7.76%
- P&L 5d %
- +5.05%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.68
- Gap %
- -1.11%
- Pre-ex close
- $176.20
- High touch (td)
- 21
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -11.17%
- P&L 5d %
- -9.42%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.68
- Gap %
- -1.28%
- Pre-ex close
- $215.53
- High touch (td)
- 6
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.06%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.17%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.68
- Gap %
- -0.25%
- Pre-ex close
- $226.62
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.65%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.45%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.68
- Gap %
- 0.72%
- Pre-ex close
- $220.53
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.22%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.72%
AVY Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day1470%
- 2–3 days15%
- 4–5 days00%
- 6–10 days210%
- 11–30 days15%
- 30+210%
70% within 1d · 75% within 5d · 90% within 30d
AVY Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with AVY's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $200.00
- After-tax dividend
- $130.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$38.13
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$91.87
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.24%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~12.1%
AVY Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical AVY ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · AVY (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.31% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.17% | |
| -9.42% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.49% | |
| -3.35% | |
| -1.93% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.52% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.55% | |
| -7.94% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See AVY seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for AVY?
Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for Avery Dennison (AVY), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take AVY to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, AVY touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 21 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on AVY large enough to capture?
AVY has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.23 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for AVY?
The next ex-dividend date for Avery Dennison (AVY) is Jun 3, 2026, confirmed (declared by the company).
How does AVY compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Industrials, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. AVY sits at 90% — at or below the sector benchmark.
Why does AVY dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.