Avery Dennison (AVY) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 89% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.23), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, AVY sits noticeably below the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 2, 2026 (±0 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 89%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.23in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 89% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.23 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.64% | -0.16pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 30% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.43% | +1.25pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 21 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±0 days.
| Dividend | $1.00 |
| Per-event yield | 0.52% |
| Annualized yield | 2.45% |
| Previously paid | Mar 4, 2026 ($0.94) |
| Last record date | Mar 4, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 18, 2026 |
AVY Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Avery Dennison (AVY). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.94 | -0.63% | $190.64 | >30 | no | no | -11.33% | -7.94% | |
| Q4 | $0.94 | -0.38% | $172.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.69% | +3.38% | |
| Q3 | $0.94 | -0.98% | $169.31 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.20% | -2.15% | |
| Q2 | $0.94 | -0.20% | $179.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.26% | -0.76% | |
| Q1 | $0.88 | -0.23% | $181.33 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.54% | -1.87% | |
| Q4 | $0.88 | -0.90% | $205.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.40% | -3.29% | |
| Q3 | $0.88 | -0.19% | $219.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.31% | -0.33% | |
| Q2 | $0.88 | -0.41% | $227.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.33% | +0.71% | |
| Q1 | $0.81 | -0.46% | $216.13 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.87% | +0.68% | |
| Q4 | $0.81 | -0.98% | $195.52 | 7 | no | yes | -2.80% | -1.93% | |
| Q3 | $0.81 | -0.98% | $189.02 | >30 | no | no | -5.15% | -3.35% | |
| Q2 | $0.81 | -0.80% | $166.02 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.23% | +1.83% | |
| Q1 | $0.75 | -0.81% | $181.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.69% | -1.84% | |
| Q4 | $0.75 | -0.37% | $191.36 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.31% | -2.70% | |
| Q3 | $0.75 | 0.35% | $185.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.23% | -0.03% | |
| Q2 | $0.75 | -1.47% | $173.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.76% | +5.05% | |
| Q1 | $0.68 | -1.11% | $176.20 | 21 | no | yes | -11.17% | -9.42% | |
| Q4 | $0.68 | -1.28% | $215.53 | 6 | no | yes | -6.06% | +0.17% | |
| Q3 | $0.68 | -0.25% | $226.62 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.65% | -0.45% | |
| Q2 | $0.68 | 0.72% | $220.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.22% | -0.72% |
- -7.94%
- +3.38%
- -2.15%
- -0.76%
- -1.87%
- -3.29%
- -0.33%
- +0.71%
- +0.68%
- -1.93%
- -3.35%
- +1.83%
- -1.84%
- -2.70%
- -0.03%
- +5.05%
- -9.42%
- +0.17%
- -0.45%
- -0.72%
AVY Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 14 | 70% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
AVY Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with AVY's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $200.00
- After-tax dividend
- $130.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$38.13
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$91.87
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.24%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~12.1%
AVY Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical AVY ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · AVY (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.31% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.17% | |
| -9.42% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.49% | |
| -3.35% | |
| -1.93% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.52% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.55% | |
| -7.94% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.