AstraZeneca (AZN) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 10 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.20), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, AZN sits roughly in line with the Healthcare sector benchmark of 100%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 21, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 2din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.20in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 10 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 2d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.20 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -1.83% | -1.50pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.07% | +0.33pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 27 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
| Dividend | $2.17 |
| Per-event yield | 1.04% |
| Annualized yield | 1.57% |
| Previously paid | Feb 20, 2026 ($2.17) |
| Last record date | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 23, 2026 |
AZN Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for AstraZeneca (AZN). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $2.17 | -0.97% | $208.62 | 3 | yes | yes | -6.40% | +0.96% | |
| Q3 | $0.52 | -3.72% | $147.24 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.72% | +5.96% | |
| Q1 | $1.05 | -1.02% | $145.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.12% | +5.49% | |
| Q3 | $0.50 | -2.11% | $165.60 | 4 | yes | yes | -2.95% | +2.90% | |
| Q1 | $0.98 | -0.84% | $127.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.43% | +0.48% | |
| Q3 | $0.47 | 0.60% | $142.56 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.71% | -3.24% | |
| Q1 | $0.96 | -2.78% | $140.04 | 27 | no | yes | -9.67% | -5.37% | |
| Q3 | $0.46 | -0.07% | $132.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.81% | -1.36% | |
| Q1 | $0.96 | -7.55% | $121.42 | 2 | yes | yes | -7.92% | -1.73% | |
| Q3 | $0.44 | 0.12% | $112.92 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.12% | +6.59% | |
| Q1 | $0.95 | -0.91% | $98.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.83% | -3.28% | |
| Q3 | $0.44 | -0.84% | $112.54 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.16% | +1.30% | |
| Q1 | $0.95 | -3.93% | $95.14 | 5 | yes | yes | -8.83% | +3.56% | |
| Q3 | $0.45 | 0.07% | $87.84 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.61% | +1.10% | |
| Q1 | $0.95 | -3.37% | $84.78 | 10 | no | yes | -4.34% | -0.60% | |
| Q3 | $0.45 | -1.27% | $78.50 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.57% | -2.71% | |
| Q1 | $0.95 | -4.01% | $68.91 | 21 | no | yes | -8.84% | +0.09% | |
| Q3 | $0.45 | -2.35% | $59.50 | 17 | no | yes | -5.55% | -4.03% | |
| Q1 | $0.95 | 0.03% | $57.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.40% | +5.03% | |
| Q3 | $0.45 | -1.11% | $68.28 | 27 | no | yes | -4.39% | -3.49% |
- +0.96%
- +5.96%
- +5.49%
- +2.90%
- +0.48%
- -3.24%
- -5.37%
- -1.36%
- -1.73%
- +6.59%
- -3.28%
- +1.30%
- +3.56%
- +1.10%
- -0.60%
- -2.71%
- +0.09%
- -4.03%
- +5.03%
- -3.49%
AZN Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 8 | 40% | |
| 2–3 days | 5 | 25% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
AZN Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with AZN's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $434.00
- After-tax dividend
- $282.10
- Slippage round-trip
- -$41.72
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$240.38
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.58%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~29.0%
AZN Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical AZN ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · AZN (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -3.49% | |
| +1.66% | |
| -4.03% | |
| +0.09% | |
| +0.57% | |
| -0.60% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +1.00% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.96% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.79% | |
| +0.34% | |
| -5.37% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.78% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +1.04% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.