Ball (BALL) Dividend Capture: 0.30% per event (1.4% annualized)
BALL
Ball (BALL) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.15), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, BALL sits roughly in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Jun 1, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.20.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 90%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.15-0.07 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 90%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.15-0.07 vs sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -0.63%-0.22pp vs sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 45%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -4.53%+0.15pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 4
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
- Dividend
- $0.20
- Per-event yield
- 0.30%
- Annualized yield
- 1.40%
- Previously paid
- Mar 2, 2026 ($0.20)
- Last record date
- Mar 2, 2026
- Last payment date
- Mar 16, 2026
How BALL ranks in Consumer Cyclical
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (44 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#31of 44
Beats ~30% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#1of 44
Beats ~98% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#30of 44
Beats ~32% of peers on this metric
BALL Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Ball (BALL). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.20 | -0.83% | $67.13 | >30 | no | no | -9.50% | -6.76% | |
| Q4 | $0.20 | -0.67% | $49.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.81% | -3.27% | |
| Q3 | $0.20 | -1.79% | $52.64 | >30 | no | no | -6.69% | -3.86% | |
| Q2 | $0.20 | -1.25% | $53.58 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.53% | +1.59% | |
| Q1 | $0.20 | -0.32% | $52.69 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.68% | +2.81% | |
| Q4 | $0.20 | -0.43% | $62.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.22% | -6.90% | |
| Q3 | $0.20 | -1.03% | $63.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.24% | +1.54% | |
| Q2 | $0.20 | -0.58% | $69.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.08% | -1.20% | |
| Q1 | $0.20 | 0.16% | $62.82 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.16% | +4.08% | |
| Q4 | $0.20 | -0.02% | $54.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.62% | +4.72% | |
| Q3 | $0.20 | 0.00% | $54.41 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.75% | -3.90% | |
| Q2 | $0.20 | -0.60% | $52.01 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.29% | +2.06% | |
| Q1 | $0.20 | -0.62% | $56.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.75% | -1.91% | |
| Q4 | $0.20 | -0.73% | $54.74 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.53% | -3.74% | |
| Q3 | $0.20 | 0.40% | $56.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.98% | +3.96% | |
| Q2 | $0.20 | -1.95% | $73.73 | 4 | yes | yes | -10.81% | +0.87% | |
| Q1 | $0.20 | -1.06% | $90.87 | 4 | yes | yes | -7.40% | -1.08% | |
| Q4 | $0.20 | -1.03% | $94.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.52% | -1.22% | |
| Q3 | $0.20 | 0.09% | $95.69 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.58% | +1.24% | |
| Q2 | $0.15 | -0.33% | $82.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.06% | -1.38% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.20
- Gap %
- -0.83%
- Pre-ex close
- $67.13
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -9.50%
- P&L 5d %
- -6.76%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.20
- Gap %
- -0.67%
- Pre-ex close
- $49.53
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.81%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.27%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.20
- Gap %
- -1.79%
- Pre-ex close
- $52.64
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -6.69%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.86%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.20
- Gap %
- -1.25%
- Pre-ex close
- $53.58
- High touch (td)
- 3
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.53%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.59%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.20
- Gap %
- -0.32%
- Pre-ex close
- $52.69
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.68%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.81%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.20
- Gap %
- -0.43%
- Pre-ex close
- $62.16
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -9.22%
- P&L 5d %
- -6.90%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.20
- Gap %
- -1.03%
- Pre-ex close
- $63.81
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.24%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.54%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.20
- Gap %
- -0.58%
- Pre-ex close
- $69.43
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.08%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.20%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.20
- Gap %
- 0.16%
- Pre-ex close
- $62.82
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- 0.16%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.08%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.20
- Gap %
- -0.02%
- Pre-ex close
- $54.82
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.62%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.72%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.20
- Gap %
- 0.00%
- Pre-ex close
- $54.41
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.75%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.90%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.20
- Gap %
- -0.60%
- Pre-ex close
- $52.01
- High touch (td)
- 3
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.29%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.06%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.20
- Gap %
- -0.62%
- Pre-ex close
- $56.10
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -7.75%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.91%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.20
- Gap %
- -0.73%
- Pre-ex close
- $54.74
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.53%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.74%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.20
- Gap %
- 0.40%
- Pre-ex close
- $56.82
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.98%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.96%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.20
- Gap %
- -1.95%
- Pre-ex close
- $73.73
- High touch (td)
- 4
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -10.81%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.87%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.20
- Gap %
- -1.06%
- Pre-ex close
- $90.87
- High touch (td)
- 4
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -7.40%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.08%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.20
- Gap %
- -1.03%
- Pre-ex close
- $94.81
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.52%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.22%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.20
- Gap %
- 0.09%
- Pre-ex close
- $95.69
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.58%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.24%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- -0.33%
- Pre-ex close
- $82.65
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.06%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.38%
BALL Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day1470%
- 2–3 days210%
- 4–5 days210%
- 6–10 days00%
- 11–30 days00%
- 30+210%
70% within 1d · 90% within 5d · 90% within 30d
BALL Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with BALL's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $40.00
- After-tax dividend
- $26.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$13.43
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$12.57
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.09%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~4.7%
BALL Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical BALL ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · BALL (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.18% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.37% | |
| -3.86% | |
| +0.40% | |
| -6.76% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See BALL seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for BALL?
Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for Ball (BALL), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take BALL to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, BALL touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 4 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on BALL large enough to capture?
BALL has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.15 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for BALL?
The next ex-dividend date for Ball (BALL) is Jun 1, 2026, confirmed (declared by the company).
How does BALL compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Consumer Cyclical, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. BALL sits at 90% — at or below the sector benchmark.
Why does BALL dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.