Baxter International (BAX) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.24), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, BAX sits roughly in line with the Healthcare sector benchmark of 100%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 28, 2026 (±0 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.24+0.09 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.24 | +0.09 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.32% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -5.13% | -0.72pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 6 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±0 days.
| Dividend | $0.01 |
| Per-event yield | 0.05% |
| Annualized yield | 1.06% |
| Previously paid | Feb 27, 2026 ($0.01) |
| Last record date | Feb 27, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 1, 2026 |
BAX Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Baxter International (BAX). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.01 | -0.83% | $20.36 | 1 | yes | yes | -16.50% | -13.06% | |
| Q4 | $0.01 | -1.00% | $18.91 | 2 | yes | yes | -5.24% | -1.90% | |
| Q3 | $0.17 | -0.61% | $24.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.25% | -0.57% | |
| Q2 | $0.17 | -1.11% | $30.70 | 6 | no | yes | -5.02% | -0.88% | |
| Q1 | $0.17 | -0.43% | $35.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.13% | +4.67% | |
| Q4 | $0.17 | -0.60% | $33.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.63% | -4.02% | |
| Q3 | $0.29 | -0.52% | $38.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.70% | +3.56% | |
| Q2 | $0.29 | -0.60% | $33.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.84% | +0.06% | |
| Q1 | $0.29 | -0.39% | $41.56 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.10% | +5.34% | |
| Q4 | $0.29 | -0.63% | $36.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.14% | +1.15% | |
| Q3 | $0.29 | -0.36% | $41.97 | >30 | no | no | -9.48% | -7.17% | |
| Q2 | $0.29 | -0.37% | $40.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.23% | +2.23% | |
| Q1 | $0.29 | -0.90% | $41.01 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.85% | -2.68% | |
| Q4 | $0.29 | -0.05% | $56.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.99% | -6.40% | |
| Q3 | $0.29 | -0.91% | $57.46 | 4 | yes | yes | -5.24% | +4.11% | |
| Q2 | $0.29 | 0.04% | $74.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.15% | -2.89% | |
| Q1 | $0.28 | -0.96% | $85.74 | 2 | yes | yes | -7.56% | -0.31% | |
| Q4 | $0.28 | -0.25% | $75.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.40% | +7.67% | |
| Q3 | $0.28 | 4.38% | $77.60 | 1 | yes | yes | 3.35% | +4.64% | |
| Q2 | $0.28 | -0.58% | $81.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.64% | +3.39% |
- -13.06%
- -1.90%
- -0.57%
- -0.88%
- +4.67%
- -4.02%
- +3.56%
- +0.06%
- +5.34%
- +1.15%
- -7.17%
- +2.23%
- -2.68%
- -6.40%
- +4.11%
- -2.89%
- -0.31%
- +7.67%
- +4.64%
- +3.39%
BAX Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 14 | 70% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
BAX Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with BAX's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $2.00
- After-tax dividend
- $1.30
- Slippage round-trip
- -$4.07
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- $-2.77
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.07%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- -0.07%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~-3.4%
BAX Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical BAX ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · BAX (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.34% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.71% | |
| -7.17% | |
| +0.80% | |
| +0.70% | |
| +0.87% | |
| +0.76% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +0.48% | |
| -0.88% | |
| +0.70% | |
| +0.05% | |
| +0.05% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.