Badger Meter (BMI) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.08), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, BMI sits roughly in line with the Technology sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 21, 2026 (±5 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.08-0.08 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.08 | -0.08 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.13% | +0.20pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 65% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.09% | +1.53pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 24 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±5 days.
| Dividend | $0.40 |
| Per-event yield | 0.26% |
| Annualized yield | 1.27% |
| Previously paid | Feb 27, 2026 ($0.40) |
| Last record date | Feb 27, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 13, 2026 |
BMI Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Badger Meter (BMI). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.40 | -1.52% | $156.17 | 24 | no | yes | -8.33% | -4.43% | |
| Q4 | $0.40 | 0.36% | $168.16 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.05% | +3.29% | |
| Q3 | $0.40 | 0.80% | $183.45 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.86% | -0.07% | |
| Q2 | $0.34 | -2.06% | $243.67 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.06% | +3.45% | |
| Q1 | $0.34 | -0.46% | $208.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.41% | +2.10% | |
| Q4 | $0.34 | 0.25% | $219.23 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.76% | +0.76% | |
| Q3 | $0.34 | 0.34% | $203.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.50% | +1.96% | |
| Q2 | $0.27 | 0.66% | $199.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.71% | -3.08% | |
| Q1 | $0.27 | 0.24% | $155.69 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.21% | +2.10% | |
| Q4 | $0.27 | 1.31% | $147.34 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.34% | +0.20% | |
| Q3 | $0.27 | -0.17% | $162.84 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.24% | +2.16% | |
| Q2 | $0.23 | 0.48% | $138.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.50% | +4.93% | |
| Q1 | $0.23 | 0.42% | $118.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.24% | +3.04% | |
| Q4 | $0.23 | 0.12% | $117.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.17% | -1.66% | |
| Q3 | $0.23 | 0.11% | $98.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.12% | -3.17% | |
| Q2 | $0.20 | 0.78% | $76.92 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.37% | +5.69% | |
| Q1 | $0.20 | -3.00% | $97.37 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.12% | +2.30% | |
| Q4 | $0.20 | -0.66% | $110.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.13% | -4.52% | |
| Q3 | $0.20 | -0.46% | $105.95 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.54% | +0.31% | |
| Q2 | $0.18 | 0.56% | $94.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.94% | -1.27% |
- -4.43%
- +3.29%
- -0.07%
- +3.45%
- +2.10%
- +0.76%
- +1.96%
- -3.08%
- +2.10%
- +0.20%
- +2.16%
- +4.93%
- +3.04%
- -1.66%
- -3.17%
- +5.69%
- +2.30%
- -4.52%
- +0.31%
- -1.27%
BMI Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 18 | 90% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
BMI Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with BMI's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $80.00
- After-tax dividend
- $52.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$31.23
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$20.77
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.07%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~3.4%
BMI Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical BMI ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · BMI (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.19% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.23% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.14% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.14% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.24% | |
| -4.43% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.