Cardinal Health (CAH) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.29), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, CAH sits roughly in line with the Healthcare sector benchmark of 100%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Jul 1, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.52.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.29+0.14 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.29 | +0.14 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.42% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 60% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.63% | +1.77pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 6 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
| Dividend | $0.52 |
| Per-event yield | 0.24% |
| Annualized yield | 0.92% |
| Previously paid | Apr 1, 2026 ($0.51) |
| Last record date | Apr 1, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 15, 2026 |
CAH Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Cardinal Health (CAH). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.51 | 0.02% | $211.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.58% | +2.37% | |
| Q1 | $0.51 | -0.45% | $205.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.70% | -1.89% | |
| Q4 | $0.51 | -0.73% | $156.96 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.94% | +0.84% | |
| Q3 | $0.51 | -0.27% | $168.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.70% | -1.92% | |
| Q2 | $0.51 | -0.15% | $137.77 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.38% | -8.90% | |
| Q1 | $0.51 | 0.02% | $118.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.63% | +3.22% | |
| Q4 | $0.51 | -0.05% | $110.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.99% | +2.36% | |
| Q3 | $0.51 | -0.15% | $98.32 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.24% | -1.84% | |
| Q1 | $0.50 | -0.25% | $112.54 | >30 | no | no | -5.51% | -1.88% | |
| Q4 | $0.50 | 0.10% | $100.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.12% | +5.38% | |
| Q4 | $0.50 | -0.97% | $86.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.15% | +5.08% | |
| Q2 | $0.50 | -0.13% | $93.92 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.27% | +0.29% | |
| Q1 | $0.50 | -0.11% | $75.35 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.62% | +6.32% | |
| Q4 | $0.50 | -0.85% | $77.72 | 5 | yes | yes | -3.06% | +0.44% | |
| Q3 | $0.50 | -0.27% | $67.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.57% | +1.37% | |
| Q2 | $0.50 | -1.55% | $53.69 | 6 | no | yes | -4.41% | -0.51% | |
| Q1 | $0.49 | -1.09% | $57.63 | 4 | yes | yes | -2.22% | +3.89% | |
| Q4 | $0.49 | -0.75% | $52.17 | 3 | yes | yes | -7.19% | +4.91% | |
| Q3 | $0.49 | -0.17% | $51.59 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.51% | -4.07% | |
| Q2 | $0.49 | -0.70% | $57.40 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.54% | -0.50% |
- +2.37%
- -1.89%
- +0.84%
- -1.92%
- -8.90%
- +3.22%
- +2.36%
- -1.84%
- -1.88%
- +5.38%
- +5.08%
- +0.29%
- +6.32%
- +0.44%
- +1.37%
- -0.51%
- +3.89%
- +4.91%
- -4.07%
- -0.50%
CAH Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 14 | 70% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
CAH Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with CAH's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $104.00
- After-tax dividend
- $67.60
- Slippage round-trip
- -$42.26
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$25.34
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.06%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~3.0%
CAH Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical CAH ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · CAH (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.86% | |
| +0.95% | |
| +0.94% | |
| +0.85% | |
| -0.51% | |
| +0.73% | |
| +0.64% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.50% | |
| -1.88% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +0.46% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.25% | |
| +0.24% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.