What is the dividend capture success rate for CAH?

Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for Cardinal Health (CAH), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.

How long does it take CAH to recover its dividend gap?

Historically, CAH touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 6 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.

Is the dividend on CAH large enough to capture?

CAH has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.29 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.

How does CAH compare to its sector for dividend capture?

Within Healthcare, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 100%. CAH sits at 95% — at or below the sector benchmark.

Why does CAH dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?

A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".

How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?

Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.

What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?

Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.

Cardinal Health (CAH) Dividend Capture: 0.24% per event (1.0% annualized)

Updated May 6, 202620 eventshigh

Cardinal Health

CAH

Cardinal Health (CAH) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.29), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.

Versus its sector, CAH sits roughly in line with the Healthcare sector benchmark of 100%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.

Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit.

Touch rate (30d): 95%-5pp vs sector
Median days-to-touch: 1din line with sector
Signal-to-noise: 0.29+0.14 vs sector

Recovery engine

TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.

30-day touch rate: 95%
-5pp vs sector
Median days-to-touch: 1d
in line with sector
Signal-to-noise (div / ATR): 0.29
+0.14 vs sector
Avg gap on ex-date: -0.42%
in line with sector
Win rate at MOC exit: 60%
Median drawdown during hold: -2.63%
+1.75pp vs sector
Best / worst touch (days): 1 / 6

Next ex-dividend

The company has not declared a dividend, and we don't have enough recent history to extrapolate a reliable estimate.

How CAH ranks in Healthcare

Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (40 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.

Full sector ranking

30-day touch rate
#22of 40
Beats ~45% of peers on this metric
Median days to touch
#1of 40
Beats ~98% of peers on this metric
Signal-to-noise
#13of 40
Beats ~68% of peers on this metric

CAH Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events

Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Cardinal Health (CAH). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.

						Recovered 5d	Recovered 30d
Apr 1, 2026	Q2	$0.51	0.02%	$211.31	1	yes	yes	-0.58%	+2.37%
Jan 2, 2026	Q1	$0.51	-0.45%	$205.50	1	yes	yes	-2.70%	-1.89%
Oct 1, 2025	Q4	$0.51	-0.73%	$156.96	1	yes	yes	-3.94%	+0.84%
Jul 1, 2025	Q3	$0.51	-0.27%	$168.00	1	yes	yes	-4.70%	-1.92%
Apr 1, 2025	Q2	$0.51	-0.15%	$137.77	1	yes	yes	-12.38%	-8.90%
Jan 2, 2025	Q1	$0.51	0.02%	$118.27	1	yes	yes	-0.63%	+3.22%
Oct 1, 2024	Q4	$0.51	-0.05%	$110.52	1	yes	yes	-0.99%	+2.36%
Jul 1, 2024	Q3	$0.51	-0.15%	$98.32	1	yes	yes	-5.24%	-1.84%
Mar 28, 2024	Q1	$0.50	-0.25%	$112.54	>30	no	no	-5.51%	-1.88%
Dec 29, 2023	Q4	$0.50	0.10%	$100.28	1	yes	yes	-0.12%	+5.38%
Oct 2, 2023	Q4	$0.50	-0.97%	$86.82	1	yes	yes	-1.15%	+5.08%
Jun 30, 2023	Q2	$0.50	-0.13%	$93.92	1	yes	yes	-1.27%	+0.29%
Mar 31, 2023	Q1	$0.50	-0.11%	$75.35	1	yes	yes	-0.62%	+6.32%
Dec 30, 2022	Q4	$0.50	-0.85%	$77.72	5	yes	yes	-3.06%	+0.44%
Sep 30, 2022	Q3	$0.50	-0.27%	$67.79	1	yes	yes	-2.57%	+1.37%
Jun 30, 2022	Q2	$0.50	-1.55%	$53.69	6	no	yes	-4.41%	-0.51%
Mar 31, 2022	Q1	$0.49	-1.09%	$57.63	4	yes	yes	-2.22%	+3.89%
Dec 31, 2021	Q4	$0.49	-0.75%	$52.17	3	yes	yes	-7.19%	+4.91%
Sep 30, 2021	Q3	$0.49	-0.17%	$51.59	1	yes	yes	-8.51%	-4.07%
Jun 30, 2021	Q2	$0.49	-0.70%	$57.40	2	yes	yes	-2.54%	-0.50%

Ex-date Apr 1, 2026Q2
Dividend
$0.51
Gap %
0.02%
Pre-ex close
$211.31
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-0.58%
P&L 5d %
+2.37%
Ex-date Jan 2, 2026Q1
Dividend
$0.51
Gap %
-0.45%
Pre-ex close
$205.50
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-2.70%
P&L 5d %
-1.89%
Ex-date Oct 1, 2025Q4
Dividend
$0.51
Gap %
-0.73%
Pre-ex close
$156.96
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-3.94%
P&L 5d %
+0.84%
Ex-date Jul 1, 2025Q3
Dividend
$0.51
Gap %
-0.27%
Pre-ex close
$168.00
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-4.70%
P&L 5d %
-1.92%
Ex-date Apr 1, 2025Q2
Dividend
$0.51
Gap %
-0.15%
Pre-ex close
$137.77
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-12.38%
P&L 5d %
-8.90%
Ex-date Jan 2, 2025Q1
Dividend
$0.51
Gap %
0.02%
Pre-ex close
$118.27
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-0.63%
P&L 5d %
+3.22%
Ex-date Oct 1, 2024Q4
Dividend
$0.51
Gap %
-0.05%
Pre-ex close
$110.52
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-0.99%
P&L 5d %
+2.36%
Ex-date Jul 1, 2024Q3
Dividend
$0.51
Gap %
-0.15%
Pre-ex close
$98.32
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-5.24%
P&L 5d %
-1.84%
Ex-date Mar 28, 2024Q1
Dividend
$0.50
Gap %
-0.25%
Pre-ex close
$112.54
High touch (td)
>30
Recovered 5d
no
Recovered 30d
no
Drawdown
-5.51%
P&L 5d %
-1.88%
Ex-date Dec 29, 2023Q4
Dividend
$0.50
Gap %
0.10%
Pre-ex close
$100.28
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-0.12%
P&L 5d %
+5.38%
Ex-date Oct 2, 2023Q4
Dividend
$0.50
Gap %
-0.97%
Pre-ex close
$86.82
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-1.15%
P&L 5d %
+5.08%
Ex-date Jun 30, 2023Q2
Dividend
$0.50
Gap %
-0.13%
Pre-ex close
$93.92
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-1.27%
P&L 5d %
+0.29%
Ex-date Mar 31, 2023Q1
Dividend
$0.50
Gap %
-0.11%
Pre-ex close
$75.35
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-0.62%
P&L 5d %
+6.32%
Ex-date Dec 30, 2022Q4
Dividend
$0.50
Gap %
-0.85%
Pre-ex close
$77.72
High touch (td)
5
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-3.06%
P&L 5d %
+0.44%
Ex-date Sep 30, 2022Q3
Dividend
$0.50
Gap %
-0.27%
Pre-ex close
$67.79
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-2.57%
P&L 5d %
+1.37%
Ex-date Jun 30, 2022Q2
Dividend
$0.50
Gap %
-1.55%
Pre-ex close
$53.69
High touch (td)
6
Recovered 5d
no
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-4.41%
P&L 5d %
-0.51%
Ex-date Mar 31, 2022Q1
Dividend
$0.49
Gap %
-1.09%
Pre-ex close
$57.63
High touch (td)
4
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-2.22%
P&L 5d %
+3.89%
Ex-date Dec 31, 2021Q4
Dividend
$0.49
Gap %
-0.75%
Pre-ex close
$52.17
High touch (td)
3
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-7.19%
P&L 5d %
+4.91%
Ex-date Sep 30, 2021Q3
Dividend
$0.49
Gap %
-0.17%
Pre-ex close
$51.59
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-8.51%
P&L 5d %
-4.07%
Ex-date Jun 30, 2021Q2
Dividend
$0.49
Gap %
-0.70%
Pre-ex close
$57.40
High touch (td)
2
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-2.54%
P&L 5d %
-0.50%

CAH Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution

20 events analyzedHigh touched pre-ex within 5 trading days: 90% (18 events)

≤ 1 day
1470%
2–3 days
210%
4–5 days
210%
6–10 days
15%
11–30 days
00%
30+
15%

70% within 1d · 90% within 5d · 95% within 30d

CAH Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield

Pre-filled with CAH's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.

CAH dividend ($)CAH price ($)SharesHold (days)Tax %?Slippage % per leg

Slippage preset

Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.

Display

Gross dividend: $102.00
After-tax dividend: $66.30
Slippage round-trip: -$42.26
Net if price returns to pre-ex: +$24.04
Required recovery to break even: 0.00%
Per-event after-tax yield: +0.06%
Annual if all succeed: ~2.9%

Scenariosbase rate 95%

Best (limit fills)+$24.04

Average (base rate)+$18.94

Worst (no recovery)$77.96

Open in full calculator →

CAH Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator

Replay every historical CAH ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.

Limit window:Quarter:

Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).

Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).

Avg P&L per trade(20 events)+0.39%

Win rate (20 trades)

90%

Cumulative P&L

+7.73%Sum of per-event % (not compounded)

Buy & hold (same sample)

+286.82%Span: Jun 30, 2021 → Apr 1, 2026 · long-horizon total return vs repeating capture cycles

Best event

Sep 30, 2021+0.95%

Worst event

Mar 28, 2024-1.88%

Cumulative P&L (equity curve)

Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.

Jun 30, 2021Apr 1, 2026

Per-event P&L distribution

20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).

<-3%

-3..-1%

-1..0%

0..1%

1..3%

>3%

Scenario P&L by event · CAH (20)

Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.

Ex-date	P&L
Jun 30, 2021	+0.86%
Sep 30, 2021	+0.95%
Dec 31, 2021	+0.94%
Mar 31, 2022	+0.85%
Jun 30, 2022	-0.51%
Sep 30, 2022	+0.73%
Dec 30, 2022	+0.64%
Mar 31, 2023	+0.66%
Jun 30, 2023	+0.53%
Oct 2, 2023	+0.58%
Dec 29, 2023	+0.50%
Mar 28, 2024	-1.88%
Jul 1, 2024	+0.51%
Oct 1, 2024	+0.46%
Jan 2, 2025	+0.43%
Apr 1, 2025	+0.37%
Jul 1, 2025	+0.30%
Oct 1, 2025	+0.33%
Jan 2, 2026	+0.25%
Apr 1, 2026	+0.24%

Looking for full price seasonality? See CAH seasonality →

Frequently asked questions

What is the dividend capture success rate for CAH?: Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for Cardinal Health (CAH), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take CAH to recover its dividend gap?: Historically, CAH touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 6 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on CAH large enough to capture?: CAH has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.29 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
How does CAH compare to its sector for dividend capture?: Within Healthcare, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 100%. CAH sits at 95% — at or below the sector benchmark.
Why does CAH dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?: A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?: Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?: Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.