Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.33), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, CFR sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 28, 2026 (±0 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.33in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.33 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.44% | +0.14pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.86% | -0.48pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 28 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±0 days.
| Dividend | $1.03 |
| Per-event yield | 0.71% |
| Annualized yield | 2.97% |
| Previously paid | Feb 27, 2026 ($1.00) |
| Last record date | Feb 27, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 13, 2026 |
CFR Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.00 | -2.21% | $144.08 | 28 | no | yes | -9.57% | -5.36% | |
| Q4 | $1.00 | -0.61% | $124.64 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.33% | +2.17% | |
| Q3 | $1.00 | -0.15% | $130.84 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.16% | -0.13% | |
| Q2 | $1.00 | -1.08% | $129.13 | 6 | no | yes | -4.15% | +0.84% | |
| Q1 | $0.95 | -0.18% | $136.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.34% | -4.66% | |
| Q4 | $0.95 | 0.32% | $142.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.40% | -2.23% | |
| Q3 | $0.95 | -0.37% | $112.42 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.84% | -2.56% | |
| Q2 | $0.92 | -0.28% | $101.55 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.68% | +0.07% | |
| Q1 | $0.92 | -1.20% | $109.26 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.66% | +2.19% | |
| Q4 | $0.92 | -0.17% | $98.21 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.91% | +4.06% | |
| Q3 | $0.92 | -1.14% | $96.63 | 11 | no | yes | -6.13% | -4.43% | |
| Q2 | $0.87 | -0.55% | $105.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.84% | +4.38% | |
| Q1 | $0.87 | -0.05% | $131.58 | 1 | yes | yes | -13.36% | -0.26% | |
| Q4 | $0.87 | -0.38% | $146.30 | >30 | no | no | -7.16% | -4.87% | |
| Q3 | $0.87 | 0.03% | $130.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.88% | +5.15% | |
| Q2 | $0.75 | -0.58% | $124.29 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.39% | +2.37% | |
| Q1 | $0.75 | 0.10% | $134.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.81% | +0.82% | |
| Q4 | $0.75 | 0.89% | $130.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.18% | -0.58% | |
| Q3 | $0.75 | -0.76% | $116.13 | 18 | no | yes | -4.53% | -1.86% | |
| Q2 | $0.72 | 0.73% | $119.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.17% | +2.09% |
- -5.36%
- +2.17%
- -0.13%
- +0.84%
- -4.66%
- -2.23%
- -2.56%
- +0.07%
- +2.19%
- +4.06%
- -4.43%
- +4.38%
- -0.26%
- -4.87%
- +5.15%
- +2.37%
- +0.82%
- -0.58%
- -1.86%
- +2.09%
CFR Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
CFR Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with CFR's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $206.00
- After-tax dividend
- $133.90
- Slippage round-trip
- -$28.82
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$105.08
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.36%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~18.4%
CFR Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical CFR ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · CFR (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.60% | |
| -1.86% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.67% | |
| -4.87% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.83% | |
| -4.43% | |
| +0.94% | |
| +0.84% | |
| +0.91% | |
| +0.85% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.70% | |
| +0.84% | |
| +0.76% | |
| +0.80% | |
| -5.36% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.