Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR) Dividend Capture: 0.71% per event (2.9% annualized)
Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.33), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, CFR sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is May 29, 2026, with an expected dividend of $1.03.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.33in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.33in line with sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -0.38%+0.19pp vs sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 50%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -4.86%-0.47pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 28
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
- Dividend
- $1.03
- Per-event yield
- 0.71%
- Annualized yield
- 2.87%
- Previously paid
- Feb 27, 2026 ($1.00)
- Last record date
- Feb 27, 2026
- Last payment date
- Mar 13, 2026
How CFR ranks in Financial Services
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (101 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#31of 101
Beats ~69% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#1of 101
Beats ~99% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#40of 101
Beats ~60% of peers on this metric
CFR Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.00 | -2.21% | $144.08 | 28 | no | yes | -9.57% | -5.36% | |
| Q4 | $1.00 | -0.61% | $124.64 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.33% | +2.17% | |
| Q3 | $1.00 | -0.15% | $130.84 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.16% | -0.13% | |
| Q2 | $1.00 | -1.08% | $129.13 | 6 | no | yes | -4.15% | +0.84% | |
| Q1 | $0.95 | -0.18% | $136.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.34% | -4.66% | |
| Q4 | $0.95 | 0.32% | $142.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.40% | -2.23% | |
| Q3 | $0.95 | -0.37% | $112.42 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.84% | -2.56% | |
| Q2 | $0.92 | -0.28% | $101.55 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.68% | +0.07% | |
| Q1 | $0.92 | -1.20% | $109.26 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.66% | +2.19% | |
| Q4 | $0.92 | -0.17% | $98.21 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.91% | +4.06% | |
| Q3 | $0.92 | -1.14% | $96.63 | 11 | no | yes | -6.13% | -4.43% | |
| Q2 | $0.87 | -0.55% | $105.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.84% | +4.38% | |
| Q1 | $0.87 | -0.05% | $131.58 | 1 | yes | yes | -13.36% | -0.26% | |
| Q4 | $0.87 | -0.38% | $146.30 | >30 | no | no | -7.16% | -4.87% | |
| Q3 | $0.87 | 0.03% | $130.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.88% | +5.15% | |
| Q2 | $0.75 | -0.58% | $124.29 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.39% | +2.37% | |
| Q1 | $0.75 | 0.10% | $134.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.81% | +0.82% | |
| Q4 | $0.75 | 0.89% | $130.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.18% | -0.58% | |
| Q3 | $0.75 | -0.76% | $116.13 | 18 | no | yes | -4.53% | -1.86% | |
| Q2 | $0.72 | 0.73% | $119.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.17% | +2.09% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.00
- Gap %
- -2.21%
- Pre-ex close
- $144.08
- High touch (td)
- 28
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -9.57%
- P&L 5d %
- -5.36%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.00
- Gap %
- -0.61%
- Pre-ex close
- $124.64
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.33%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.17%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.00
- Gap %
- -0.15%
- Pre-ex close
- $130.84
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.16%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.13%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.00
- Gap %
- -1.08%
- Pre-ex close
- $129.13
- High touch (td)
- 6
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.15%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.84%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.95
- Gap %
- -0.18%
- Pre-ex close
- $136.44
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -12.34%
- P&L 5d %
- -4.66%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.95
- Gap %
- 0.32%
- Pre-ex close
- $142.38
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.40%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.23%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.95
- Gap %
- -0.37%
- Pre-ex close
- $112.42
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -7.84%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.56%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.92
- Gap %
- -0.28%
- Pre-ex close
- $101.55
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.68%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.07%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.92
- Gap %
- -1.20%
- Pre-ex close
- $109.26
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.66%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.19%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.92
- Gap %
- -0.17%
- Pre-ex close
- $98.21
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.91%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.06%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.92
- Gap %
- -1.14%
- Pre-ex close
- $96.63
- High touch (td)
- 11
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.13%
- P&L 5d %
- -4.43%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.87
- Gap %
- -0.55%
- Pre-ex close
- $105.26
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.84%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.38%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.87
- Gap %
- -0.05%
- Pre-ex close
- $131.58
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -13.36%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.26%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.87
- Gap %
- -0.38%
- Pre-ex close
- $146.30
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -7.16%
- P&L 5d %
- -4.87%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.87
- Gap %
- 0.03%
- Pre-ex close
- $130.81
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.88%
- P&L 5d %
- +5.15%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.75
- Gap %
- -0.58%
- Pre-ex close
- $124.29
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.39%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.37%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.75
- Gap %
- 0.10%
- Pre-ex close
- $134.94
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.81%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.82%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.75
- Gap %
- 0.89%
- Pre-ex close
- $130.28
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.18%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.58%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.75
- Gap %
- -0.76%
- Pre-ex close
- $116.13
- High touch (td)
- 18
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.53%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.86%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.72
- Gap %
- 0.73%
- Pre-ex close
- $119.80
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.17%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.09%
CFR Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day1365%
- 2–3 days210%
- 4–5 days00%
- 6–10 days15%
- 11–30 days315%
- 30+15%
65% within 1d · 75% within 5d · 95% within 30d
CFR Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with CFR's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $206.00
- After-tax dividend
- $133.90
- Slippage round-trip
- -$28.82
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$105.08
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.36%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~18.4%
CFR Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical CFR ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · CFR (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.60% | |
| -1.86% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.67% | |
| -4.87% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.83% | |
| -4.43% | |
| +0.94% | |
| +0.84% | |
| +0.91% | |
| +0.85% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.70% | |
| +0.84% | |
| +0.76% | |
| +0.80% | |
| -5.36% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See CFR seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for CFR?
Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take CFR to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, CFR touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 28 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on CFR large enough to capture?
CFR has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.33 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for CFR?
The next ex-dividend date for Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR) is May 29, 2026, confirmed (declared by the company).
How does CFR compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Financial Services, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. CFR sits at 95% — at or below the sector benchmark.
Why does CFR dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.