CFR dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 95% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.34), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, CFR sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Aug 31, 2026, with an expected dividend of $1.03.
Touch rate (30d)
95%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.34
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.34 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.47% | +0.11pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.86% | -0.45pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 28 | — |
Confirmed by company declaration.
Dividend
$1.03
Per-event yield
0.76%
Annualized yield
2.40%
Previously paid
May 29, 2026 ($1.03)
Last record date
May 29, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 15, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $1.03 | -1.06% | $136.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.71% | +3.62% | |
| Q1 | $1.00 | -2.21% | $144.08 | 28 | no | yes | -9.57% | -5.36% | |
| Q4 | $1.00 | -0.61% | $124.64 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.33% | +2.17% | |
| Q3 | $1.00 | -0.15% | $130.84 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.16% | -0.13% | |
| Q2 | $1.00 | -1.08% | $129.13 | 6 | no | yes | -4.15% | +0.84% | |
| Q1 | $0.95 | -0.18% | $136.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.34% | -4.66% | |
| Q4 | $0.95 | 0.32% | $142.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.40% | -2.23% | |
| Q3 | $0.95 | -0.37% | $112.42 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.84% | -2.56% | |
| Q2 | $0.92 | -0.28% | $101.55 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.68% | +0.07% | |
| Q1 | $0.92 | -1.20% | $109.26 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.66% | +2.19% | |
| Q4 | $0.92 | -0.17% | $98.21 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.91% | +4.06% | |
| Q3 | $0.92 | -1.14% | $96.63 | 11 | no | yes | -6.13% | -4.43% | |
| Q2 | $0.87 | -0.55% | $105.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.84% | +4.38% | |
| Q1 | $0.87 | -0.05% | $131.58 | 1 | yes | yes | -13.36% | -0.26% | |
| Q4 | $0.87 | -0.38% | $146.30 | >30 | no | no | -7.16% | -4.87% | |
| Q3 | $0.87 | 0.03% | $130.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.88% | +5.15% | |
| Q2 | $0.75 | -0.58% | $124.29 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.39% | +2.37% | |
| Q1 | $0.75 | 0.10% | $134.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.81% | +0.82% | |
| Q4 | $0.75 | 0.89% | $130.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.18% | -0.58% | |
| Q3 | $0.75 | -0.76% | $116.13 | 18 | no | yes | -4.53% | -1.86% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with CFR's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical CFR ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-0.23%
Win rate (20 trades)
80%
Cumulative P&L
-4.57%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+32.23%
Best event
+0.94%
Worst event
-5.36%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · CFR (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -1.86% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.67% | |
| -4.87% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.83% | |
| -4.43% | |
| +0.94% | |
| +0.84% | |
| +0.91% | |
| +0.85% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.70% | |
| +0.84% | |
| +0.76% | |
| +0.80% | |
| -5.36% | |
| +0.76% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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