What is the dividend capture success rate for CMCSA?

Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for Comcast (CMCSA), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.

How long does it take CMCSA to recover its dividend gap?

Historically, CMCSA touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 11 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.

Is the dividend on CMCSA large enough to capture?

CMCSA has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.38 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.

How does CMCSA compare to its sector for dividend capture?

Within Communication Services, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 90%. CMCSA sits at 90% — at or below the sector benchmark.

Why does CMCSA dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?

A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".

How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?

Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.

What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?

Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.

Comcast (CMCSA) Dividend Capture: 1.15% per event (4.7% annualized)

Updated May 6, 202620 eventshigh

Comcast

CMCSA

Comcast (CMCSA) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.38), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.

Versus its sector, CMCSA sits roughly in line with the Communication Services sector benchmark of 90%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.

Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit.

Touch rate (30d): 90%in line with sector
Median days-to-touch: 1din line with sector
Signal-to-noise: 0.38+0.11 vs sector

Recovery engine

TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.

30-day touch rate: 90%
in line with sector
Median days-to-touch: 1d
in line with sector
Signal-to-noise (div / ATR): 0.38
+0.11 vs sector
Avg gap on ex-date: -0.96%
-0.48pp vs sector
Win rate at MOC exit: 30%
Median drawdown during hold: -3.34%
+1.61pp vs sector
Best / worst touch (days): 1 / 11

Next ex-dividend

The company has not declared a dividend, and we don't have enough recent history to extrapolate a reliable estimate.

How CMCSA ranks in Communication Services

Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (15 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.

Full sector ranking

30-day touch rate
#7of 15
Beats ~53% of peers on this metric
Median days to touch
#1of 15
Beats ~93% of peers on this metric
Signal-to-noise
#5of 15
Beats ~67% of peers on this metric

CMCSA Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events

Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Comcast (CMCSA). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.

						Recovered 5d	Recovered 30d
Apr 1, 2026	Q2	$0.33	-1.57%	$28.71	11	no	yes	-4.28%	-0.24%
Jan 14, 2026	Q1	$0.33	-1.51%	$28.48	1	yes	yes	-3.23%	+3.79%
Oct 1, 2025	Q4	$0.33	-1.21%	$31.42	>30	no	no	-6.46%	-1.02%
Jul 2, 2025	Q3	$0.33	-1.16%	$36.33	2	yes	yes	-5.64%	-1.60%
Apr 2, 2025	Q2	$0.33	-1.12%	$36.72	>30	no	no	-12.31%	-3.30%
Jan 8, 2025	Q1	$0.31	-1.08%	$37.18	1	yes	yes	-2.77%	-1.51%
Oct 2, 2024	Q4	$0.31	-0.74%	$41.70	1	yes	yes	-3.17%	+0.02%
Jul 3, 2024	Q3	$0.31	-1.07%	$38.16	1	yes	yes	-2.67%	-0.26%
Apr 2, 2024	Q2	$0.31	-0.24%	$42.28	1	yes	yes	-7.50%	-4.30%
Jan 2, 2024	Q1	$0.29	-0.66%	$43.85	1	yes	yes	-3.10%	-0.64%
Oct 3, 2023	Q4	$0.29	-1.39%	$44.49	6	no	yes	-4.72%	+0.61%
Jul 3, 2023	Q3	$0.29	-1.37%	$41.55	1	yes	yes	-1.64%	+1.81%
Apr 4, 2023	Q2	$0.29	-0.16%	$38.01	1	yes	yes	-1.55%	-0.21%
Jan 3, 2023	Q1	$0.27	-0.09%	$34.97	1	yes	yes	-0.66%	+9.09%
Oct 4, 2022	Q4	$0.27	-0.46%	$30.63	1	yes	yes	-7.31%	-5.48%
Jul 5, 2022	Q3	$0.27	-2.33%	$40.29	6	no	yes	-3.43%	-0.67%
Apr 5, 2022	Q2	$0.27	-1.43%	$48.11	1	yes	yes	-3.26%	-1.23%
Jan 4, 2022	Q1	$0.25	-0.06%	$50.74	1	yes	yes	-1.71%	+1.28%
Oct 5, 2021	Q4	$0.25	-0.79%	$56.78	1	yes	yes	-9.28%	-7.40%
Jul 6, 2021	Q3	$0.25	-0.74%	$58.42	4	yes	yes	-3.59%	-0.60%

Ex-date Apr 1, 2026Q2
Dividend
$0.33
Gap %
-1.57%
Pre-ex close
$28.71
High touch (td)
11
Recovered 5d
no
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-4.28%
P&L 5d %
-0.24%
Ex-date Jan 14, 2026Q1
Dividend
$0.33
Gap %
-1.51%
Pre-ex close
$28.48
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-3.23%
P&L 5d %
+3.79%
Ex-date Oct 1, 2025Q4
Dividend
$0.33
Gap %
-1.21%
Pre-ex close
$31.42
High touch (td)
>30
Recovered 5d
no
Recovered 30d
no
Drawdown
-6.46%
P&L 5d %
-1.02%
Ex-date Jul 2, 2025Q3
Dividend
$0.33
Gap %
-1.16%
Pre-ex close
$36.33
High touch (td)
2
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-5.64%
P&L 5d %
-1.60%
Ex-date Apr 2, 2025Q2
Dividend
$0.33
Gap %
-1.12%
Pre-ex close
$36.72
High touch (td)
>30
Recovered 5d
no
Recovered 30d
no
Drawdown
-12.31%
P&L 5d %
-3.30%
Ex-date Jan 8, 2025Q1
Dividend
$0.31
Gap %
-1.08%
Pre-ex close
$37.18
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-2.77%
P&L 5d %
-1.51%
Ex-date Oct 2, 2024Q4
Dividend
$0.31
Gap %
-0.74%
Pre-ex close
$41.70
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-3.17%
P&L 5d %
+0.02%
Ex-date Jul 3, 2024Q3
Dividend
$0.31
Gap %
-1.07%
Pre-ex close
$38.16
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-2.67%
P&L 5d %
-0.26%
Ex-date Apr 2, 2024Q2
Dividend
$0.31
Gap %
-0.24%
Pre-ex close
$42.28
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-7.50%
P&L 5d %
-4.30%
Ex-date Jan 2, 2024Q1
Dividend
$0.29
Gap %
-0.66%
Pre-ex close
$43.85
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-3.10%
P&L 5d %
-0.64%
Ex-date Oct 3, 2023Q4
Dividend
$0.29
Gap %
-1.39%
Pre-ex close
$44.49
High touch (td)
6
Recovered 5d
no
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-4.72%
P&L 5d %
+0.61%
Ex-date Jul 3, 2023Q3
Dividend
$0.29
Gap %
-1.37%
Pre-ex close
$41.55
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-1.64%
P&L 5d %
+1.81%
Ex-date Apr 4, 2023Q2
Dividend
$0.29
Gap %
-0.16%
Pre-ex close
$38.01
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-1.55%
P&L 5d %
-0.21%
Ex-date Jan 3, 2023Q1
Dividend
$0.27
Gap %
-0.09%
Pre-ex close
$34.97
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-0.66%
P&L 5d %
+9.09%
Ex-date Oct 4, 2022Q4
Dividend
$0.27
Gap %
-0.46%
Pre-ex close
$30.63
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-7.31%
P&L 5d %
-5.48%
Ex-date Jul 5, 2022Q3
Dividend
$0.27
Gap %
-2.33%
Pre-ex close
$40.29
High touch (td)
6
Recovered 5d
no
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-3.43%
P&L 5d %
-0.67%
Ex-date Apr 5, 2022Q2
Dividend
$0.27
Gap %
-1.43%
Pre-ex close
$48.11
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-3.26%
P&L 5d %
-1.23%
Ex-date Jan 4, 2022Q1
Dividend
$0.25
Gap %
-0.06%
Pre-ex close
$50.74
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-1.71%
P&L 5d %
+1.28%
Ex-date Oct 5, 2021Q4
Dividend
$0.25
Gap %
-0.79%
Pre-ex close
$56.78
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-9.28%
P&L 5d %
-7.40%
Ex-date Jul 6, 2021Q3
Dividend
$0.25
Gap %
-0.74%
Pre-ex close
$58.42
High touch (td)
4
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-3.59%
P&L 5d %
-0.60%

CMCSA Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution

20 events analyzedHigh touched pre-ex within 5 trading days: 75% (15 events)

≤ 1 day
1365%
2–3 days
15%
4–5 days
15%
6–10 days
210%
11–30 days
15%
30+
210%

65% within 1d · 75% within 5d · 90% within 30d

CMCSA Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield

Pre-filled with CMCSA's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.

CMCSA dividend ($)CMCSA price ($)SharesHold (days)Tax %?Slippage % per leg

Slippage preset

Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.

Display

Gross dividend: $66.00
After-tax dividend: $42.90
Slippage round-trip: -$5.74
Net if price returns to pre-ex: +$37.16
Required recovery to break even: 0.00%
Per-event after-tax yield: +0.65%
Annual if all succeed: ~32.6%

Scenariosbase rate 90%

Best (limit fills)+$37.16

Average (base rate)+$30.56

Worst (no recovery)$28.84

Open in full calculator →

CMCSA Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator

Replay every historical CMCSA ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.

Limit window:Quarter:

Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).

Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).

Avg P&L per trade(20 events)+0.31%

Win rate (20 trades)

80%

Cumulative P&L

+6.27%Sum of per-event % (not compounded)

Buy & hold (same sample)

-41.92%Span: Jul 6, 2021 → Apr 1, 2026 · long-horizon total return vs repeating capture cycles

Best event

Jan 14, 2026+1.16%

Worst event

Apr 2, 2025-3.30%

Cumulative P&L (equity curve)

Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.

Jul 6, 2021Apr 1, 2026

Per-event P&L distribution

20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).

<-3%

-3..-1%

-1..0%

0..1%

1..3%

>3%

Scenario P&L by event · CMCSA (20)

Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.

Ex-date	P&L
Jul 6, 2021	+0.43%
Oct 5, 2021	+0.44%
Jan 4, 2022	+0.49%
Apr 5, 2022	+0.56%
Jul 5, 2022	-0.67%
Oct 4, 2022	+0.88%
Jan 3, 2023	+0.77%
Apr 4, 2023	+0.76%
Jul 3, 2023	+0.70%
Oct 3, 2023	+0.61%
Jan 2, 2024	+0.66%
Apr 2, 2024	+0.73%
Jul 3, 2024	+0.81%
Oct 2, 2024	+0.74%
Jan 8, 2025	+0.83%
Apr 2, 2025	-3.30%
Jul 2, 2025	+0.91%
Oct 1, 2025	-1.02%
Jan 14, 2026	+1.16%
Apr 1, 2026	-0.24%

Looking for full price seasonality? See CMCSA seasonality →

Frequently asked questions

What is the dividend capture success rate for CMCSA?: Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for Comcast (CMCSA), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take CMCSA to recover its dividend gap?: Historically, CMCSA touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 11 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on CMCSA large enough to capture?: CMCSA has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.38 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
How does CMCSA compare to its sector for dividend capture?: Within Communication Services, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 90%. CMCSA sits at 90% — at or below the sector benchmark.
Why does CMCSA dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?: A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?: Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?: Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.