CSL dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 95% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Carlisle Companies (CSL) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.10), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, CSL sits roughly in line with the Basic Materials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 17, 2026 (±3 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
95%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.10
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.10 | -0.08 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.38% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.62% | +1.32pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 6 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±3 days.
Dividend
$1.10
Per-event yield
0.33%
Annualized yield
1.32%
Previously paid
May 18, 2026 ($1.10)
Last record date
May 18, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 1, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Carlisle Companies (CSL). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $1.10 | 0.05% | $330.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.89% | +3.49% | |
| Q1 | $1.10 | -0.71% | $409.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.08% | -0.02% | |
| Q4 | $1.10 | 0.74% | $315.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.13% | -1.74% | |
| Q3 | $1.10 | -0.19% | $378.05 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.51% | +4.25% | |
| Q2 | $1.00 | -0.99% | $408.50 | >30 | no | no | -9.74% | -2.10% | |
| Q1 | $1.00 | -0.04% | $357.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.59% | -4.89% | |
| Q4 | $1.00 | -0.69% | $450.58 | 6 | no | yes | -5.02% | +0.02% | |
| Q3 | $1.00 | -0.06% | $408.13 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.74% | +2.27% | |
| Q2 | $0.85 | 0.16% | $415.05 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.66% | +3.31% | |
| Q1 | $0.85 | 0.10% | $347.42 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.39% | +2.79% | |
| Q4 | $0.85 | 2.02% | $269.92 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.13% | +1.62% | |
| Q3 | $0.85 | -0.46% | $281.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.54% | -7.02% | |
| Q2 | $0.75 | -1.11% | $213.45 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.91% | -0.58% | |
| Q1 | $0.75 | -1.45% | $260.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.02% | -0.97% | |
| Q4 | $0.75 | -0.83% | $242.06 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.33% | +5.92% | |
| Q3 | $0.75 | -1.24% | $315.59 | 2 | yes | yes | -6.67% | -1.71% | |
| Q2 | $0.54 | -0.53% | $245.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.33% | +1.53% | |
| Q1 | $0.54 | -1.19% | $238.76 | 6 | no | yes | -6.86% | +0.84% | |
| Q4 | $0.54 | -0.46% | $239.75 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.41% | -0.12% | |
| Q3 | $0.54 | -0.69% | $209.02 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.94% | -0.68% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 15 | 75% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with CSL's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical CSL ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.17%
Win rate (20 trades)
95%
Cumulative P&L
+3.48%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+67.70%
Best event
+0.84%
Worst event
-2.10%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · CSL (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.26% | |
| +0.23% | |
| +0.84% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.25% | |
| +0.02% | |
| +0.28% | |
| -2.10% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.33% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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