Cintas (CTAS) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.42), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, CTAS sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 14, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.42+0.24 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.42 | +0.24 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | 0.11% | +0.47pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 75% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -1.80% | +2.23pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 2 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
| Dividend | $0.45 |
| Per-event yield | 0.23% |
| Annualized yield | 1.07% |
| Previously paid | Feb 13, 2026 ($0.45) |
| Last record date | Feb 13, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 13, 2026 |
CTAS Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Cintas (CTAS). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.45 | 0.00% | $196.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.91% | +1.37% | |
| Q4 | $0.45 | 0.17% | $187.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.74% | -0.88% | |
| Q3 | $0.45 | -0.04% | $221.36 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.69% | -2.40% | |
| Q2 | $0.39 | 0.08% | $214.19 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.03% | +3.67% | |
| Q1 | $0.39 | 0.00% | $205.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.12% | -1.09% | |
| Q4 | $0.39 | -0.44% | $217.05 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.46% | +2.35% | |
| Q3 | $1.56 | 0.40% | $190.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.29% | +3.63% | |
| Q2 | $1.35 | -0.15% | $172.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.34% | +2.21% | |
| Q1 | $1.35 | 0.09% | $151.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.36% | +4.38% | |
| Q4 | $1.35 | 1.41% | $134.07 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.75% | +4.17% | |
| Q3 | $1.35 | -0.16% | $122.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.74% | +0.29% | |
| Q2 | $1.15 | 0.19% | $118.56 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.42% | +0.18% | |
| Q1 | $1.15 | -0.55% | $112.00 | >30 | no | no | -4.16% | -1.30% | |
| Q4 | $1.15 | -0.31% | $110.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.29% | +2.34% | |
| Q3 | $1.15 | 0.58% | $107.41 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.75% | +2.67% | |
| Q2 | $0.95 | 0.89% | $91.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.13% | +0.08% | |
| Q1 | $0.95 | 0.13% | $93.88 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.04% | -0.46% | |
| Q4 | $0.95 | 0.40% | $108.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.87% | +3.65% | |
| Q3 | $0.95 | -0.54% | $97.53 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.43% | +1.30% | |
| Q2 | $0.75 | 0.16% | $85.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.68% | +2.54% |
- +1.37%
- -0.88%
- -2.40%
- +3.67%
- -1.09%
- +2.35%
- +3.63%
- +2.21%
- +4.38%
- +4.17%
- +0.29%
- +0.18%
- -1.30%
- +2.34%
- +2.67%
- +0.08%
- -0.46%
- +3.65%
- +1.30%
- +2.54%
CTAS Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 17 | 85% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
CTAS Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with CTAS's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $90.00
- After-tax dividend
- $58.50
- Slippage round-trip
- -$39.22
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$19.28
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.05%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~2.5%
CTAS Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical CTAS ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · CTAS (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.87% | |
| +0.97% | |
| +0.88% | |
| +1.01% | |
| +1.03% | |
| +1.07% | |
| +1.04% | |
| -1.30% | |
| +0.97% | |
| +1.10% | |
| +1.01% | |
| +0.89% | |
| +0.78% | |
| +0.82% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.23% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.