Corteva (CTVA) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.13), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, CTVA sits roughly in line with the Basic Materials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 31, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.13-0.08 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.13 | -0.08 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.38% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 35% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.81% | -0.10pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 30 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
| Dividend | $0.18 |
| Per-event yield | 0.22% |
| Annualized yield | 0.93% |
| Previously paid | Mar 2, 2026 ($0.18) |
| Last record date | Mar 2, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 16, 2026 |
CTVA Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Corteva (CTVA). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.18 | -0.26% | $80.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.57% | -2.05% | |
| Q4 | $0.18 | -0.47% | $67.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.99% | -3.26% | |
| Q3 | $0.18 | -0.63% | $74.19 | 9 | no | yes | -6.62% | -2.04% | |
| Q2 | $0.17 | -0.16% | $70.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.92% | +1.95% | |
| Q1 | $0.17 | 0.13% | $62.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.76% | -4.08% | |
| Q4 | $0.17 | 0.02% | $62.24 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.57% | -3.74% | |
| Q3 | $0.17 | -1.48% | $57.30 | 12 | no | yes | -5.88% | -3.05% | |
| Q2 | $0.16 | -1.15% | $55.57 | 30 | no | yes | -10.01% | -6.78% | |
| Q1 | $0.16 | -0.11% | $54.54 | 5 | yes | yes | -2.37% | +0.20% | |
| Q4 | $0.16 | -0.09% | $45.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.54% | -1.85% | |
| Q3 | $0.16 | 0.00% | $51.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.72% | -2.97% | |
| Q2 | $0.15 | -0.80% | $54.97 | 3 | yes | yes | -4.02% | +5.95% | |
| Q1 | $0.15 | -0.61% | $62.11 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.29% | +1.63% | |
| Q4 | $0.15 | 1.46% | $67.05 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.91% | -2.19% | |
| Q3 | $0.15 | 0.67% | $60.09 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.07% | +4.04% | |
| Q2 | $0.14 | -1.06% | $53.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.72% | +10.34% | |
| Q1 | $0.14 | -1.60% | $51.84 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.40% | -0.93% | |
| Q4 | $0.14 | -0.84% | $47.85 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.73% | +1.34% | |
| Q3 | $0.14 | -0.28% | $45.74 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.53% | -6.67% | |
| Q2 | $0.13 | 0.04% | $45.18 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.41% | -2.04% |
- -2.05%
- -3.26%
- -2.04%
- +1.95%
- -4.08%
- -3.74%
- -3.05%
- -6.78%
- +0.20%
- -1.85%
- -2.97%
- +5.95%
- +1.63%
- -2.19%
- +4.04%
- +10.34%
- -0.93%
- +1.34%
- -6.67%
- -2.04%
CTVA Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 15 | 75% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
CTVA Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with CTVA's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $36.00
- After-tax dividend
- $23.40
- Slippage round-trip
- -$16.02
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$7.38
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.05%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~2.3%
CTVA Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical CTVA ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · CTVA (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.29% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.25% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.29% | |
| -6.78% | |
| -3.05% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.24% | |
| -2.04% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.22% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.