Ferrovial (FER) Dividend Capture: 0.14% per event (1.6% annualized)
FER
Ferrovial (FER) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 12 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is comparable to the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 1.03), so post-ex noise can offset much of the dividend in any single trade.
Versus its sector, FER sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 1.03+0.84 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 12 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 1.03+0.84 vs sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -0.32%in line with sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 61%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -1.74%+2.23pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 18
Next ex-dividend
The company has not declared a dividend, and we don't have enough recent history to extrapolate a reliable estimate.
How FER ranks in Industrials
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (87 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#1of 87
Beats ~99% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#1of 87
Beats ~99% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#1of 87
Beats ~99% of peers on this metric
FER Dividend Capture History — Last 18 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Ferrovial (FER). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 | $0.09 | 0.29% | $66.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.20% | +1.15% | |
| Q4 | $0.55 | 0.47% | $64.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.84% | -2.21% | |
| Q2 | $0.36 | -1.28% | $52.24 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.78% | +0.40% | |
| Q4 | $0.04 | -0.65% | $43.18 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.00% | -2.76% | |
| Q4 | $0.50 | 0.47% | $38.56 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.63% | +1.34% | |
| Q2 | $0.33 | -2.49% | $40.62 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.47% | -0.47% | |
| Q4 | $0.45 | 0.00% | $32.50 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.00% | +1.39% | |
| Q3 | $0.27 | 0.00% | $30.55 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.00% | +0.87% | |
| Q4 | $0.40 | 0.00% | $22.00 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.00% | +1.84% | |
| Q2 | $0.29 | 0.00% | $24.80 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.00% | +1.18% | |
| Q4 | $0.35 | 0.00% | $31.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.42% | +0.72% | |
| Q2 | $0.24 | -0.66% | $30.20 | 18 | no | yes | -4.37% | -3.19% | |
| Q4 | $0.23 | 4.47% | $22.15 | 1 | yes | yes | 4.47% | +26.57% | |
| Q2 | $0.34 | 0.00% | $25.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.02% | -0.71% | |
| Q4 | $0.45 | 0.00% | $29.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.85% | -0.30% | |
| Q4 | $0.55 | 0.00% | $18.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.26% | +3.00% | |
| Q2 | $0.32 | -7.70% | $16.63 | >30 | no | no | -7.70% | -4.61% | |
| Q4 | $1.31 | 0.00% | $13.28 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.00% | +9.86% |
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.09
- Gap %
- 0.29%
- Pre-ex close
- $66.08
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.20%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.15%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.55
- Gap %
- 0.47%
- Pre-ex close
- $64.40
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.84%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.21%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.36
- Gap %
- -1.28%
- Pre-ex close
- $52.24
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.78%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.40%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.04
- Gap %
- -0.65%
- Pre-ex close
- $43.18
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.00%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.76%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.50
- Gap %
- 0.47%
- Pre-ex close
- $38.56
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.63%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.34%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.33
- Gap %
- -2.49%
- Pre-ex close
- $40.62
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.47%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.47%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.45
- Gap %
- 0.00%
- Pre-ex close
- $32.50
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- 0.00%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.39%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.27
- Gap %
- 0.00%
- Pre-ex close
- $30.55
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- 0.00%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.87%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.40
- Gap %
- 0.00%
- Pre-ex close
- $22.00
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- 0.00%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.84%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.29
- Gap %
- 0.00%
- Pre-ex close
- $24.80
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- 0.00%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.18%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.35
- Gap %
- 0.00%
- Pre-ex close
- $31.20
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.42%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.72%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.24
- Gap %
- -0.66%
- Pre-ex close
- $30.20
- High touch (td)
- 18
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.37%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.19%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.23
- Gap %
- 4.47%
- Pre-ex close
- $22.15
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- 4.47%
- P&L 5d %
- +26.57%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.34
- Gap %
- 0.00%
- Pre-ex close
- $25.79
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.02%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.71%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.45
- Gap %
- 0.00%
- Pre-ex close
- $29.14
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.85%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.30%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.55
- Gap %
- 0.00%
- Pre-ex close
- $18.39
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.26%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.00%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.32
- Gap %
- -7.70%
- Pre-ex close
- $16.63
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -7.70%
- P&L 5d %
- -4.61%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.31
- Gap %
- 0.00%
- Pre-ex close
- $13.28
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- 0.00%
- P&L 5d %
- +9.86%
FER Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day1583%
- 2–3 days16%
- 4–5 days00%
- 6–10 days00%
- 11–30 days16%
- 30+16%
83% within 1d · 89% within 5d · 94% within 30d
FER Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with FER's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $18.00
- After-tax dividend
- $11.70
- Slippage round-trip
- -$13.22
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- $-1.52
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.01%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- -0.01%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~-0.6%
FER Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical FER ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
18 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · FER (18)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +9.86% | |
| -4.61% | |
| +3.00% | |
| +1.55% | |
| +1.31% | |
| +1.06% | |
| -3.19% | |
| +1.13% | |
| +1.18% | |
| +1.84% | |
| +0.87% | |
| +1.39% | |
| +0.81% | |
| +1.29% | |
| +0.08% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.86% | |
| +0.14% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See FER seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for FER?
Across the last 12 ex-dividend events for Ferrovial (FER), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take FER to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, FER touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 18 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on FER large enough to capture?
FER has a signal-to-noise ratio of 1.03 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
How does FER compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Industrials, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. FER sits at 100% — above the sector benchmark.
Why does FER dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.