FER dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 100% /30d touch rate over 12 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Ferrovial (FER) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 12 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.99), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, FER sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit.
Touch rate (30d)
100%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.99
TL;DR over the most recent 12 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.99 | +0.82 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.48% | -0.15pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 63% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -1.85% | +2.17pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 2 | — |
The company has not declared a dividend, and we don't have enough recent history to extrapolate a reliable estimate.
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Ferrovial (FER). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.65 | -2.62% | $67.19 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.75% | +4.43% | |
| Q4 | $0.09 | 0.29% | $66.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.20% | +1.15% | |
| Q4 | $0.55 | 0.47% | $64.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.84% | -2.21% | |
| Q2 | $0.36 | -1.28% | $52.24 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.78% | +0.40% | |
| Q4 | $0.04 | -0.65% | $43.18 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.00% | -2.76% | |
| Q4 | $0.50 | 0.47% | $38.56 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.63% | +1.34% | |
| Q2 | $0.33 | -2.49% | $40.62 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.47% | -0.47% | |
| Q4 | $0.45 | 0.00% | $32.50 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.00% | +1.39% | |
| Q3 | $0.27 | 0.00% | $30.55 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.00% | +0.87% | |
| Q4 | $0.40 | 0.00% | $22.00 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.00% | +1.84% | |
| Q2 | $0.29 | 0.00% | $24.80 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.00% | +1.18% | |
| Q4 | $0.35 | 0.00% | $31.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.42% | +0.72% | |
| Q2 | $0.24 | -0.66% | $30.20 | 18 | no | yes | -4.37% | -3.19% | |
| Q4 | $0.23 | 4.47% | $22.15 | 1 | yes | yes | 4.47% | +26.57% | |
| Q2 | $0.34 | 0.00% | $25.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.02% | -0.71% | |
| Q4 | $0.45 | 0.00% | $29.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.85% | -0.30% | |
| Q4 | $0.55 | 0.00% | $18.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.26% | +3.00% | |
| Q2 | $0.32 | -7.70% | $16.63 | >30 | no | no | -7.70% | -4.61% | |
| Q4 | $1.31 | 0.00% | $13.28 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.00% | +9.86% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 15 | 79% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 11% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with FER's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical FER ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 19 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (19 events)
+1.06%
Win rate (19 trades)
89%
Cumulative P&L
+20.22%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+447.57%
Best event
+9.86%
Worst event
-4.61%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
19 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · FER (19)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +9.86% | |
| -4.61% | |
| +3.00% | |
| +1.55% | |
| +1.31% | |
| +1.06% | |
| -3.19% | |
| +1.13% | |
| +1.18% | |
| +1.84% | |
| +0.87% | |
| +1.39% | |
| +0.81% | |
| +1.29% | |
| +0.08% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.86% | |
| +0.14% | |
| +0.96% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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