Garmin (GRMN) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.28), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, GRMN sits roughly in line with the Technology sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Sep 11, 2026, with an expected dividend of $1.05.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.28+0.12 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.28 | +0.12 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.53% | -0.20pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 40% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.93% | +0.69pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 12 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
| Dividend | $1.05 |
| Per-event yield | 0.45% |
| Annualized yield | 1.67% |
| Previously paid | Mar 13, 2026 ($0.90) |
| Last record date | Mar 13, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 27, 2026 |
GRMN Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Garmin (GRMN). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.90 | 0.44% | $235.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.87% | -1.10% | |
| Q4 | $0.90 | -0.05% | $210.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.87% | -3.92% | |
| Q3 | $0.90 | -0.85% | $241.18 | 12 | no | yes | -3.38% | -2.14% | |
| Q2 | $0.90 | 0.45% | $201.32 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.97% | +2.31% | |
| Q1 | $0.75 | 0.54% | $209.37 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.26% | +0.75% | |
| Q4 | $0.75 | 0.03% | $215.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.69% | -2.88% | |
| Q3 | $0.75 | -5.22% | $182.76 | >30 | no | no | -7.98% | -6.02% | |
| Q2 | $0.75 | -0.39% | $159.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.72% | +0.96% | |
| Q1 | $0.73 | -0.22% | $148.35 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.04% | +0.35% | |
| Q4 | $0.73 | -0.05% | $126.89 | 4 | yes | yes | -1.51% | +0.99% | |
| Q3 | $0.73 | -0.04% | $106.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.60% | -0.67% | |
| Q2 | $0.73 | 0.12% | $106.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.91% | -2.77% | |
| Q1 | $0.73 | 1.06% | $95.93 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.67% | +2.25% | |
| Q4 | $0.73 | -0.86% | $96.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.86% | -4.20% | |
| Q3 | $0.73 | -0.71% | $88.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.78% | -4.14% | |
| Q2 | $0.73 | -2.62% | $96.98 | 4 | yes | yes | -4.59% | +4.00% | |
| Q1 | $0.67 | -0.85% | $109.80 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.56% | +6.89% | |
| Q4 | $0.67 | -1.11% | $134.69 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.94% | -0.88% | |
| Q3 | $0.67 | 0.20% | $171.25 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.24% | -2.50% | |
| Q2 | $0.67 | -0.76% | $144.76 | 12 | no | yes | -4.26% | -1.44% |
- -1.10%
- -3.92%
- -2.14%
- +2.31%
- +0.75%
- -2.88%
- -6.02%
- +0.96%
- +0.35%
- +0.99%
- -0.67%
- -2.77%
- +2.25%
- -4.20%
- -4.14%
- +4.00%
- +6.89%
- -0.88%
- -2.50%
- -1.44%
GRMN Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
GRMN Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with GRMN's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $210.00
- After-tax dividend
- $136.50
- Slippage round-trip
- -$47.17
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$89.33
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.19%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~9.5%
GRMN Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical GRMN ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · GRMN (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -1.44% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.75% | |
| +0.82% | |
| +0.75% | |
| +0.76% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.47% | |
| -6.02% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.45% | |
| -2.14% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.38% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.