W.W. Grainger (GWW) Dividend Capture: 0.21% per event (0.8% annualized)
W.W. Grainger (GWW) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.11), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, GWW sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is May 11, 2026, with an expected dividend of $2.49.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.11-0.07 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.11-0.07 vs sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -0.00%+0.35pp vs sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 55%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -2.46%+1.51pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 8
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
- Dividend
- $2.49
- Per-event yield
- 0.21%
- Annualized yield
- 0.82%
- Previously paid
- Feb 9, 2026 ($2.26)
- Last record date
- Feb 9, 2026
- Last payment date
- Mar 1, 2026
How GWW ranks in Industrials
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (87 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#1of 87
Beats ~99% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#1of 87
Beats ~99% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#63of 87
Beats ~28% of peers on this metric
GWW Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for W.W. Grainger (GWW). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $2.26 | -0.86% | $1197.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.22% | -5.27% | |
| Q4 | $2.26 | -0.34% | $955.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.08% | -3.07% | |
| Q3 | $2.26 | -0.35% | $950.13 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.67% | +3.18% | |
| Q2 | $2.26 | 2.25% | $1037.06 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.90% | +6.33% | |
| Q1 | $2.05 | 0.73% | $1035.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.65% | -1.07% | |
| Q4 | $2.05 | -0.08% | $1188.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.47% | -0.72% | |
| Q3 | $2.05 | -0.33% | $979.31 | 8 | no | yes | -4.03% | -1.95% | |
| Q2 | $2.05 | 0.13% | $956.21 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.99% | -0.89% | |
| Q1 | $1.86 | -0.08% | $949.93 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.45% | -1.29% | |
| Q4 | $1.86 | 0.12% | $781.73 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.03% | +2.86% | |
| Q3 | $1.86 | -0.24% | $712.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.36% | -0.96% | |
| Q2 | $1.86 | 0.37% | $667.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.14% | +2.84% | |
| Q1 | $1.72 | -0.72% | $661.11 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.80% | +2.72% | |
| Q4 | $1.72 | 2.98% | $591.01 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.46% | +0.79% | |
| Q3 | $1.72 | -1.15% | $543.34 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.15% | +7.04% | |
| Q2 | $1.72 | -1.36% | $483.14 | 8 | no | yes | -5.70% | -0.85% | |
| Q1 | $1.62 | -0.34% | $473.52 | 4 | yes | yes | -4.19% | +0.43% | |
| Q4 | $1.62 | -0.11% | $479.83 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.40% | +2.42% | |
| Q3 | $1.62 | 0.22% | $439.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.62% | +0.24% | |
| Q2 | $1.62 | -0.87% | $459.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.59% | +2.11% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $2.26
- Gap %
- -0.86%
- Pre-ex close
- $1197.65
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -8.22%
- P&L 5d %
- -5.27%
Q4
- Dividend
- $2.26
- Gap %
- -0.34%
- Pre-ex close
- $955.04
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.08%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.07%
Q3
- Dividend
- $2.26
- Gap %
- -0.35%
- Pre-ex close
- $950.13
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.67%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.18%
Q2
- Dividend
- $2.26
- Gap %
- 2.25%
- Pre-ex close
- $1037.06
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- 0.90%
- P&L 5d %
- +6.33%
Q1
- Dividend
- $2.05
- Gap %
- 0.73%
- Pre-ex close
- $1035.80
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.65%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.07%
Q4
- Dividend
- $2.05
- Gap %
- -0.08%
- Pre-ex close
- $1188.95
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.47%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.72%
Q3
- Dividend
- $2.05
- Gap %
- -0.33%
- Pre-ex close
- $979.31
- High touch (td)
- 8
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.03%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.95%
Q2
- Dividend
- $2.05
- Gap %
- 0.13%
- Pre-ex close
- $956.21
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.99%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.89%
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.86
- Gap %
- -0.08%
- Pre-ex close
- $949.93
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.45%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.29%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.86
- Gap %
- 0.12%
- Pre-ex close
- $781.73
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- 0.03%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.86%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.86
- Gap %
- -0.24%
- Pre-ex close
- $712.28
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.36%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.96%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.86
- Gap %
- 0.37%
- Pre-ex close
- $667.50
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.14%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.84%
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.72
- Gap %
- -0.72%
- Pre-ex close
- $661.11
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.80%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.72%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.72
- Gap %
- 2.98%
- Pre-ex close
- $591.01
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.46%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.79%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.72
- Gap %
- -1.15%
- Pre-ex close
- $543.34
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.15%
- P&L 5d %
- +7.04%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.72
- Gap %
- -1.36%
- Pre-ex close
- $483.14
- High touch (td)
- 8
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.70%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.85%
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.62
- Gap %
- -0.34%
- Pre-ex close
- $473.52
- High touch (td)
- 4
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.19%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.43%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.62
- Gap %
- -0.11%
- Pre-ex close
- $479.83
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.40%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.42%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.62
- Gap %
- 0.22%
- Pre-ex close
- $439.26
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.62%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.24%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.62
- Gap %
- -0.87%
- Pre-ex close
- $459.00
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.59%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.11%
GWW Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day1680%
- 2–3 days15%
- 4–5 days15%
- 6–10 days210%
- 11–30 days00%
- 30+00%
80% within 1d · 90% within 5d · 100% within 30d
GWW Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with GWW's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $498.00
- After-tax dividend
- $323.70
- Slippage round-trip
- -$239.53
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$84.17
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.04%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~1.8%
GWW Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical GWW ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · GWW (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.35% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.34% | |
| -0.85% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.21% | |
| -1.95% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.19% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See GWW seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for GWW?
Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for W.W. Grainger (GWW), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take GWW to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, GWW touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 8 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on GWW large enough to capture?
GWW has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.11 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for GWW?
The next ex-dividend date for W.W. Grainger (GWW) is May 11, 2026, confirmed (declared by the company).
How does GWW compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Industrials, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. GWW sits at 100% — above the sector benchmark.
Why does GWW dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.