HCA Healthcare (HCA) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.09), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, HCA sits roughly in line with the Healthcare sector benchmark of 100%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 15, 2026 (±2 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.09-0.06 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.09 | -0.06 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.08% | +0.26pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 60% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.58% | +0.82pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 15 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±2 days.
| Dividend | $0.78 |
| Per-event yield | 0.15% |
| Annualized yield | 0.76% |
| Previously paid | Mar 17, 2026 ($0.78) |
| Last record date | Mar 17, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 31, 2026 |
HCA Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for HCA Healthcare (HCA). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.78 | 0.00% | $525.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.02% | -7.37% | |
| Q4 | $0.72 | -2.03% | $484.77 | 15 | no | yes | -4.90% | -2.48% | |
| Q3 | $0.72 | 0.14% | $403.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.24% | +1.74% | |
| Q2 | $0.72 | 0.12% | $371.18 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.51% | +2.31% | |
| Q1 | $0.72 | -0.41% | $319.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.97% | +4.75% | |
| Q4 | $0.66 | 0.00% | $311.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.92% | -2.47% | |
| Q3 | $0.66 | 0.59% | $394.68 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.13% | +2.96% | |
| Q2 | $0.66 | -0.94% | $340.90 | 3 | yes | yes | -6.32% | +0.33% | |
| Q1 | $0.66 | -0.05% | $321.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.93% | +2.36% | |
| Q4 | $0.60 | -0.00% | $263.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.64% | +0.41% | |
| Q3 | $0.60 | 0.56% | $262.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.20% | -3.22% | |
| Q2 | $0.60 | -0.44% | $284.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.85% | +4.15% | |
| Q1 | $0.60 | -1.12% | $247.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.12% | +2.38% | |
| Q4 | $0.56 | 2.58% | $242.73 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.58% | -1.57% | |
| Q3 | $0.56 | -0.29% | $208.76 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.96% | -6.77% | |
| Q2 | $0.56 | -0.02% | $179.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.66% | -0.71% | |
| Q1 | $0.56 | 0.31% | $267.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.20% | -2.25% | |
| Q4 | $0.48 | -0.18% | $243.55 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.35% | +1.05% | |
| Q3 | $0.48 | -0.25% | $254.67 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.34% | +1.59% | |
| Q2 | $0.48 | -0.08% | $207.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.58% | +1.18% |
- -7.37%
- -2.48%
- +1.74%
- +2.31%
- +4.75%
- -2.47%
- +2.96%
- +0.33%
- +2.36%
- +0.41%
- -3.22%
- +4.15%
- +2.38%
- -1.57%
- -6.77%
- -0.71%
- -2.25%
- +1.05%
- +1.59%
- +1.18%
HCA Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 18 | 90% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
HCA Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with HCA's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $156.00
- After-tax dividend
- $101.40
- Slippage round-trip
- -$105.04
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- $-3.64
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- -0.00%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~-0.2%
HCA Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical HCA ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · HCA (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.23% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.23% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.23% | |
| +0.23% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.23% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.18% | |
| -2.48% | |
| +0.15% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.