Hilton (HLT) Dividend Capture: 0.05% per event (0.2% annualized)
HLT
Hilton (HLT) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 16 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.04), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, HLT sits roughly in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is May 22, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.15.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.04-0.18 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 16 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.04-0.18 vs sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -0.06%+0.36pp vs sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 50%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -2.46%+2.21pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 28
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Per-event yield
- 0.05%
- Annualized yield
- 0.19%
- Previously paid
- Feb 27, 2026 ($0.15)
- Last record date
- Feb 27, 2026
- Last payment date
- Mar 31, 2026
How HLT ranks in Consumer Cyclical
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (44 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#1of 44
Beats ~98% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#1of 44
Beats ~98% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#43of 44
Beats ~2% of peers on this metric
HLT Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Hilton (HLT). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.15 | -1.20% | $317.83 | 28 | no | yes | -8.91% | -5.99% | |
| Q4 | $0.15 | 0.78% | $264.32 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.00% | +7.14% | |
| Q3 | $0.15 | -0.69% | $276.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.20% | +0.60% | |
| Q2 | $0.15 | -1.43% | $246.64 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.45% | +1.07% | |
| Q1 | $0.15 | 0.28% | $267.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.53% | -1.01% | |
| Q4 | $0.15 | -0.30% | $250.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.72% | +1.24% | |
| Q3 | $0.15 | 0.19% | $215.83 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.36% | +1.83% | |
| Q2 | $0.15 | 0.10% | $204.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.71% | -2.15% | |
| Q1 | $0.15 | 0.85% | $199.04 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.48% | +2.73% | |
| Q4 | $0.15 | -0.21% | $165.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.39% | +2.66% | |
| Q3 | $0.15 | -0.63% | $149.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.30% | -0.71% | |
| Q2 | $0.15 | -0.33% | $144.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.78% | -2.86% | |
| Q1 | $0.15 | 0.80% | $144.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.81% | +2.76% | |
| Q4 | $0.15 | -1.22% | $130.83 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.44% | +5.89% | |
| Q3 | $0.15 | 0.77% | $133.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.95% | -4.11% | |
| Q2 | $0.15 | 1.31% | $131.74 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.92% | +8.03% | |
| Q1 | $0.15 | -2.42% | $97.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -19.13% | -6.38% | |
| Q4 | $0.15 | 0.43% | $99.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.80% | -0.57% | |
| Q3 | $0.15 | 0.14% | $93.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.62% | -1.76% | |
| Q2 | $0.15 | 0.18% | $93.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.08% | -3.03% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- -1.20%
- Pre-ex close
- $317.83
- High touch (td)
- 28
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -8.91%
- P&L 5d %
- -5.99%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- 0.78%
- Pre-ex close
- $264.32
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- 0.00%
- P&L 5d %
- +7.14%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- -0.69%
- Pre-ex close
- $276.30
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.20%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.60%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- -1.43%
- Pre-ex close
- $246.64
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.45%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.07%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- 0.28%
- Pre-ex close
- $267.81
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.53%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.01%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- -0.30%
- Pre-ex close
- $250.04
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.72%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.24%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- 0.19%
- Pre-ex close
- $215.83
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.36%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.83%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- 0.10%
- Pre-ex close
- $204.57
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.71%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.15%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- 0.85%
- Pre-ex close
- $199.04
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- 0.48%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.73%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- -0.21%
- Pre-ex close
- $165.57
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.39%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.66%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- -0.63%
- Pre-ex close
- $149.87
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.30%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.71%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- -0.33%
- Pre-ex close
- $144.20
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.78%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.86%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- 0.80%
- Pre-ex close
- $144.79
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.81%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.76%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- -1.22%
- Pre-ex close
- $130.83
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.44%
- P&L 5d %
- +5.89%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- 0.77%
- Pre-ex close
- $133.30
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.95%
- P&L 5d %
- -4.11%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- 1.31%
- Pre-ex close
- $131.74
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- 0.92%
- P&L 5d %
- +8.03%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- -2.42%
- Pre-ex close
- $97.90
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -19.13%
- P&L 5d %
- -6.38%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- 0.43%
- Pre-ex close
- $99.57
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.80%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.57%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- 0.14%
- Pre-ex close
- $93.40
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.62%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.76%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.15
- Gap %
- 0.18%
- Pre-ex close
- $93.65
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.08%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.03%
HLT Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day1890%
- 2–3 days15%
- 4–5 days00%
- 6–10 days00%
- 11–30 days15%
- 30+00%
90% within 1d · 95% within 5d · 100% within 30d
HLT Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with HLT's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $30.00
- After-tax dividend
- $19.50
- Slippage round-trip
- -$63.57
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- $-44.07
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.07%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- -0.07%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~-3.5%
HLT Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical HLT ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · HLT (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.16% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.15% | |
| +0.15% | |
| +0.11% | |
| +0.11% | |
| +0.11% | |
| +0.10% | |
| +0.10% | |
| +0.10% | |
| +0.09% | |
| +0.08% | |
| +0.07% | |
| +0.07% | |
| +0.06% | |
| +0.06% | |
| +0.06% | |
| +0.05% | |
| +0.06% | |
| -5.99% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See HLT seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for HLT?
Across the last 16 ex-dividend events for Hilton (HLT), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take HLT to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, HLT touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 28 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on HLT large enough to capture?
HLT has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.04 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for HLT?
The next ex-dividend date for Hilton (HLT) is May 22, 2026, confirmed (declared by the company).
How does HLT compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Consumer Cyclical, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. HLT sits at 100% — above the sector benchmark.
Why does HLT dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.