IBM (IBM) Dividend Capture: 0.57% per event (2.9% annualized)
IBM
IBM (IBM) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 3 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.49), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, IBM sits roughly in line with the Technology sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is May 8, 2026, with an expected dividend of $1.69.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 90%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 3d+2.0d vs sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.49+0.33 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 90%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 3d+2.0d vs sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.49+0.33 vs sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -1.07%-0.74pp vs sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 55%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -4.33%+0.36pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 23
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
- Dividend
- $1.69
- Per-event yield
- 0.57%
- Annualized yield
- 2.94%
- Previously paid
- Feb 10, 2026 ($1.68)
- Last record date
- Feb 10, 2026
- Last payment date
- Mar 10, 2026
How IBM ranks in Technology
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (48 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#40of 48
Beats ~17% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#48of 48
Beats ~0% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#4of 48
Beats ~92% of peers on this metric
IBM Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for IBM (IBM). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.68 | -0.46% | $296.34 | 1 | yes | yes | -25.52% | -11.43% | |
| Q4 | $1.68 | 0.14% | $306.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.98% | -2.46% | |
| Q3 | $1.68 | -0.51% | $250.16 | 21 | no | yes | -6.72% | -3.50% | |
| Q2 | $1.68 | -0.64% | $254.14 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.73% | +5.63% | |
| Q1 | $1.67 | -0.59% | $252.34 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.17% | +4.91% | |
| Q4 | $1.67 | -0.78% | $213.57 | 7 | no | yes | -4.45% | -0.77% | |
| Q3 | $1.67 | -0.74% | $192.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.87% | +1.47% | |
| Q2 | $1.67 | -1.41% | $169.90 | 8 | no | yes | -2.37% | +0.44% | |
| Q1 | $1.66 | -0.60% | $183.74 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.72% | +2.61% | |
| Q4 | $1.66 | -1.00% | $148.03 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.86% | +4.52% | |
| Q3 | $1.66 | -0.66% | $145.91 | 14 | no | yes | -4.21% | -2.47% | |
| Q2 | $1.66 | -1.22% | $123.40 | 5 | yes | yes | -2.31% | +1.39% | |
| Q1 | $1.65 | -0.73% | $135.98 | 3 | yes | yes | -5.24% | +0.49% | |
| Q4 | $1.65 | -1.49% | $140.04 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.21% | +4.38% | |
| Q3 | $1.65 | -2.03% | $132.61 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.63% | +4.22% | |
| Q2 | $1.65 | -2.37% | $137.67 | 7 | no | yes | -8.62% | -0.72% | |
| Q1 | $1.64 | -1.68% | $137.79 | >30 | no | no | -13.77% | -8.11% | |
| Q4 | $1.64 | -1.59% | $124.54 | 23 | no | yes | -7.51% | -3.57% | |
| Q3 | $1.64 | -1.32% | $137.63 | >30 | no | no | -4.77% | +0.84% | |
| Q2 | $1.64 | -1.69% | $141.77 | 21 | no | yes | -5.06% | -1.37% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.68
- Gap %
- -0.46%
- Pre-ex close
- $296.34
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -25.52%
- P&L 5d %
- -11.43%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.68
- Gap %
- 0.14%
- Pre-ex close
- $306.38
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.98%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.46%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.68
- Gap %
- -0.51%
- Pre-ex close
- $250.16
- High touch (td)
- 21
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.72%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.50%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.68
- Gap %
- -0.64%
- Pre-ex close
- $254.14
- High touch (td)
- 3
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.73%
- P&L 5d %
- +5.63%
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.67
- Gap %
- -0.59%
- Pre-ex close
- $252.34
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.17%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.91%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.67
- Gap %
- -0.78%
- Pre-ex close
- $213.57
- High touch (td)
- 7
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.45%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.77%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.67
- Gap %
- -0.74%
- Pre-ex close
- $192.61
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.87%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.47%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.67
- Gap %
- -1.41%
- Pre-ex close
- $169.90
- High touch (td)
- 8
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.37%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.44%
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.66
- Gap %
- -0.60%
- Pre-ex close
- $183.74
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.72%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.61%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.66
- Gap %
- -1.00%
- Pre-ex close
- $148.03
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.86%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.52%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.66
- Gap %
- -0.66%
- Pre-ex close
- $145.91
- High touch (td)
- 14
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.21%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.47%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.66
- Gap %
- -1.22%
- Pre-ex close
- $123.40
- High touch (td)
- 5
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.31%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.39%
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.65
- Gap %
- -0.73%
- Pre-ex close
- $135.98
- High touch (td)
- 3
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.24%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.49%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.65
- Gap %
- -1.49%
- Pre-ex close
- $140.04
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.21%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.38%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.65
- Gap %
- -2.03%
- Pre-ex close
- $132.61
- High touch (td)
- 3
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.63%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.22%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.65
- Gap %
- -2.37%
- Pre-ex close
- $137.67
- High touch (td)
- 7
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -8.62%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.72%
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.64
- Gap %
- -1.68%
- Pre-ex close
- $137.79
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -13.77%
- P&L 5d %
- -8.11%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.64
- Gap %
- -1.59%
- Pre-ex close
- $124.54
- High touch (td)
- 23
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -7.51%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.57%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.64
- Gap %
- -1.32%
- Pre-ex close
- $137.63
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -4.77%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.84%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.64
- Gap %
- -1.69%
- Pre-ex close
- $141.77
- High touch (td)
- 21
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.06%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.37%
IBM Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day420%
- 2–3 days630%
- 4–5 days15%
- 6–10 days315%
- 11–30 days420%
- 30+210%
20% within 1d · 55% within 5d · 90% within 30d
IBM Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with IBM's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $338.00
- After-tax dividend
- $219.70
- Slippage round-trip
- -$59.27
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$160.43
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.27%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~13.6%
IBM Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical IBM ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · IBM (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -1.37% | |
| +0.84% | |
| -3.57% | |
| -8.11% | |
| -0.72% | |
| +1.24% | |
| +1.18% | |
| +1.21% | |
| +1.35% | |
| -2.47% | |
| +1.12% | |
| +0.90% | |
| +0.44% | |
| +0.87% | |
| -0.77% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.66% | |
| -3.50% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.57% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See IBM seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for IBM?
Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for IBM (IBM), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 3 trading days. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take IBM to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, IBM touches its pre-ex close in a median of 3 trading days, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 23 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on IBM large enough to capture?
IBM has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.49 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for IBM?
The next ex-dividend date for IBM (IBM) is May 8, 2026, confirmed (declared by the company).
How does IBM compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Technology, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. IBM sits at 90% — at or below the sector benchmark.
Why does IBM dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.