IBM dividend capture — median 3d pre-ex touch, 90% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
IBM (IBM) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 3 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.48), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, IBM sits roughly in line with the Technology sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Aug 10, 2026, with an expected dividend of $1.69.
Touch rate (30d)
90%
Median days-to-touch
3d
Signal-to-noise
0.48
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 90% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 3d | +2.0d vs sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.48 | +0.32 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -1.02% | -0.63pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.33% | +0.71pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 23 | — |
Confirmed by company declaration.
Dividend
$1.69
Per-event yield
0.73%
Annualized yield
2.98%
Previously paid
May 8, 2026 ($1.69)
Last record date
May 8, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 10, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for IBM (IBM). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $1.69 | -0.68% | $231.31 | 10 | no | yes | -8.20% | -4.46% | |
| Q1 | $1.68 | -0.46% | $296.34 | 1 | yes | yes | -25.52% | -11.43% | |
| Q4 | $1.68 | 0.14% | $306.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.98% | -2.46% | |
| Q3 | $1.68 | -0.51% | $250.16 | 21 | no | yes | -6.72% | -3.50% | |
| Q2 | $1.68 | -0.64% | $254.14 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.73% | +5.63% | |
| Q1 | $1.67 | -0.59% | $252.34 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.17% | +4.91% | |
| Q4 | $1.67 | -0.78% | $213.57 | 7 | no | yes | -4.45% | -0.77% | |
| Q3 | $1.67 | -0.74% | $192.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.87% | +1.47% | |
| Q2 | $1.67 | -1.41% | $169.90 | 8 | no | yes | -2.37% | +0.44% | |
| Q1 | $1.66 | -0.60% | $183.74 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.72% | +2.61% | |
| Q4 | $1.66 | -1.00% | $148.03 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.86% | +4.52% | |
| Q3 | $1.66 | -0.66% | $145.91 | 14 | no | yes | -4.21% | -2.47% | |
| Q2 | $1.66 | -1.22% | $123.40 | 5 | yes | yes | -2.31% | +1.39% | |
| Q1 | $1.65 | -0.73% | $135.98 | 3 | yes | yes | -5.24% | +0.49% | |
| Q4 | $1.65 | -1.49% | $140.04 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.21% | +4.38% | |
| Q3 | $1.65 | -2.03% | $132.61 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.63% | +4.22% | |
| Q2 | $1.65 | -2.37% | $137.67 | 7 | no | yes | -8.62% | -0.72% | |
| Q1 | $1.64 | -1.68% | $137.79 | >30 | no | no | -13.77% | -8.11% | |
| Q4 | $1.64 | -1.59% | $124.54 | 23 | no | yes | -7.51% | -3.57% | |
| Q3 | $1.64 | -1.31% | $137.75 | >30 | no | no | -4.77% | +0.85% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 4 | 20% | |
| 2–3 days | 6 | 30% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 11–30 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
Pre-filled with IBM's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical IBM ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-0.60%
Win rate (20 trades)
65%
Cumulative P&L
-12.01%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+90.93%
Best event
+1.35%
Worst event
-8.11%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · IBM (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.85% | |
| -3.57% | |
| -8.11% | |
| -0.72% | |
| +1.24% | |
| +1.18% | |
| +1.21% | |
| +1.35% | |
| -2.47% | |
| +1.12% | |
| +0.90% | |
| +0.44% | |
| +0.87% | |
| -0.77% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.66% | |
| -3.50% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.57% | |
| -4.46% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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