Ingersoll Rand (IR) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 18 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.01), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, IR sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 13, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.01-0.17 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 18 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.01 | -0.17 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | 0.17% | +0.52pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.29% | -0.26pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 8 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
| Dividend | $0.02 |
| Per-event yield | 0.02% |
| Annualized yield | 0.11% |
| Previously paid | Mar 4, 2026 ($0.02) |
| Last record date | Mar 4, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 26, 2026 |
IR Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Ingersoll Rand (IR). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.02 | 0.36% | $91.54 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.87% | -6.94% | |
| Q4 | $0.02 | -0.62% | $77.71 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.77% | -4.05% | |
| Q3 | $0.02 | -1.10% | $80.77 | 7 | no | yes | -4.33% | -4.09% | |
| Q2 | $0.02 | -0.29% | $83.24 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.54% | -2.43% | |
| Q1 | $0.02 | 0.49% | $81.45 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.04% | +0.07% | |
| Q4 | $0.02 | -0.22% | $104.35 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.32% | -1.24% | |
| Q3 | $0.02 | 1.66% | $91.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.23% | -0.96% | |
| Q2 | $0.02 | 0.51% | $91.54 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.96% | +5.20% | |
| Q1 | $0.02 | 0.79% | $89.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.40% | +0.64% | |
| Q4 | $0.02 | 0.64% | $70.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.05% | +0.85% | |
| Q3 | $0.02 | 0.90% | $66.70 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.07% | +4.93% | |
| Q2 | $0.02 | -0.82% | $59.74 | 8 | no | yes | -5.44% | -5.12% | |
| Q1 | $0.02 | -0.05% | $58.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.38% | +1.73% | |
| Q4 | $0.02 | 1.47% | $55.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.66% | -2.50% | |
| Q3 | $0.02 | -0.69% | $53.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.04% | -7.57% | |
| Q2 | $0.02 | -0.80% | $43.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.08% | +8.55% | |
| Q1 | $0.02 | 0.96% | $44.90 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.82% | +7.84% | |
| Q4 | $0.02 | -0.17% | $57.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.21% | +4.16% | |
| Q2 | $0.53 | -0.52% | $30.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.25% | +1.59% | |
| Q1 | $0.53 | -10.73% | $23.49 | 2 | yes | yes | -27.59% | -12.56% |
- -6.94%
- -4.05%
- -4.09%
- -2.43%
- +0.07%
- -1.24%
- -0.96%
- +5.20%
- +0.64%
- +0.85%
- +4.93%
- -5.12%
- +1.73%
- -2.50%
- -7.57%
- +8.55%
- +7.84%
- +4.16%
- +1.59%
- -12.56%
IR Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 17 | 85% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
IR Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with IR's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $4.00
- After-tax dividend
- $2.60
- Slippage round-trip
- -$18.31
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- $-15.71
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.09%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- -0.09%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~-4.3%
IR Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical IR ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · IR (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +2.26% | |
| +1.72% | |
| +0.03% | |
| +0.04% | |
| +0.05% | |
| +0.04% | |
| +0.04% | |
| +0.03% | |
| -5.12% | |
| +0.03% | |
| +0.03% | |
| +0.02% | |
| +0.02% | |
| +0.02% | |
| +0.02% | |
| +0.02% | |
| +0.02% | |
| -4.09% | |
| +0.03% | |
| +0.02% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.