Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 84% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.49), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, JNJ sits noticeably below the Healthcare sector benchmark of 100%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 25, 2026 (±4 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 84%-16pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.49+0.34 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 84% | -16pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.49 | +0.34 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.61% | -0.28pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.66% | +0.74pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 10 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±4 days.
| Dividend | $1.34 |
| Per-event yield | 0.55% |
| Annualized yield | 2.28% |
| Previously paid | Feb 24, 2026 ($1.30) |
| Last record date | Feb 24, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 10, 2026 |
JNJ Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.30 | -0.20% | $245.84 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.23% | +0.90% | |
| Q4 | $1.30 | -0.42% | $206.05 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.98% | +0.28% | |
| Q3 | $1.30 | -0.93% | $178.41 | 5 | yes | yes | -2.12% | +0.50% | |
| Q2 | $1.30 | -0.27% | $152.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.90% | +1.82% | |
| Q1 | $1.24 | -1.29% | $156.15 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.86% | +7.16% | |
| Q4 | $1.24 | -0.40% | $155.78 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.78% | -2.61% | |
| Q3 | $1.24 | -0.67% | $164.61 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.49% | +2.42% | |
| Q2 | $1.24 | -1.00% | $154.64 | >30 | no | no | -7.07% | -5.83% | |
| Q1 | $1.19 | -0.84% | $157.92 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.42% | +2.57% | |
| Q4 | $1.19 | -1.26% | $149.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.50% | +2.02% | |
| Q3 | $1.19 | -0.48% | $165.09 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.69% | -2.07% | |
| Q2 | $1.19 | -0.57% | $158.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.62% | -2.11% | |
| Q1 | $1.13 | -0.77% | $158.24 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.43% | -0.94% | |
| Q4 | $1.13 | -0.18% | $176.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.87% | +0.58% | |
| Q3 | $1.13 | -0.24% | $169.31 | >30 | no | no | -4.75% | -3.06% | |
| Q2 | $1.13 | 0.35% | $176.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.35% | +2.08% | |
| Q1 | $1.06 | -0.73% | $166.19 | 5 | yes | yes | -6.30% | -0.34% | |
| Q4 | $1.06 | -1.14% | $162.89 | 10 | no | yes | -4.32% | -3.62% | |
| Q3 | $1.06 | -0.59% | $179.44 | >30 | no | no | -4.11% | -2.63% | |
| Q2 | $1.06 | -0.04% | $170.96 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.70% | -2.56% |
- +0.90%
- +0.28%
- +0.50%
- +1.82%
- +7.16%
- -2.61%
- +2.42%
- -5.83%
- +2.57%
- +2.02%
- -2.07%
- -2.11%
- -0.94%
- +0.58%
- -3.06%
- +2.08%
- -0.34%
- -3.62%
- -2.63%
- -2.56%
JNJ Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 10 | 50% | |
| 2–3 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 3 | 15% |
JNJ Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with JNJ's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $268.00
- After-tax dividend
- $174.20
- Slippage round-trip
- -$49.17
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$125.03
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.25%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~12.8%
JNJ Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical JNJ ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · JNJ (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.62% | |
| -2.63% | |
| -3.62% | |
| +0.64% | |
| +0.64% | |
| -3.06% | |
| +0.64% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.75% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.79% | |
| +0.75% | |
| -5.83% | |
| +0.75% | |
| +0.80% | |
| +0.79% | |
| +0.85% | |
| +0.73% | |
| +0.63% | |
| +0.53% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.