JNJ dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 85% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 85% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.48), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, JNJ sits noticeably below the Healthcare sector benchmark of 100%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Aug 25, 2026, with an expected dividend of $1.34.
Touch rate (30d)
85%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.48
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 85% | -15pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.48 | +0.33 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.61% | -0.27pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.87% | +0.44pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 10 | — |
Confirmed by company declaration.
Dividend
$1.34
Per-event yield
0.57%
Annualized yield
2.08%
Previously paid
May 26, 2026 ($1.34)
Last record date
May 26, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 9, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $1.34 | -0.57% | $234.34 | 9 | no | yes | -5.76% | -4.31% | |
| Q1 | $1.30 | -0.20% | $245.84 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.23% | +0.90% | |
| Q4 | $1.30 | -0.42% | $206.05 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.98% | +0.28% | |
| Q3 | $1.30 | -0.93% | $178.41 | 5 | yes | yes | -2.12% | +0.50% | |
| Q2 | $1.30 | -0.27% | $152.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.90% | +1.82% | |
| Q1 | $1.24 | -1.29% | $156.15 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.86% | +7.16% | |
| Q4 | $1.24 | -0.40% | $155.78 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.78% | -2.61% | |
| Q3 | $1.24 | -0.67% | $164.61 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.49% | +2.42% | |
| Q2 | $1.24 | -1.00% | $154.64 | >30 | no | no | -7.07% | -5.83% | |
| Q1 | $1.19 | -0.84% | $157.92 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.42% | +2.57% | |
| Q4 | $1.19 | -1.26% | $149.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.50% | +2.02% | |
| Q3 | $1.19 | -0.48% | $165.09 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.69% | -2.07% | |
| Q2 | $1.19 | -0.57% | $158.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.62% | -2.11% | |
| Q1 | $1.13 | -0.77% | $158.24 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.43% | -0.94% | |
| Q4 | $1.13 | -0.18% | $176.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.87% | +0.58% | |
| Q3 | $1.13 | -0.24% | $169.31 | >30 | no | no | -4.75% | -3.06% | |
| Q2 | $1.13 | 0.35% | $176.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.35% | +2.08% | |
| Q1 | $1.06 | -0.73% | $166.19 | 5 | yes | yes | -6.30% | -0.34% | |
| Q4 | $1.06 | -1.14% | $162.89 | 10 | no | yes | -4.32% | -3.62% | |
| Q3 | $1.06 | -0.59% | $179.44 | >30 | no | no | -4.11% | -2.63% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 9 | 45% | |
| 2–3 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 3 | 15% |
Pre-filled with JNJ's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical JNJ ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-0.44%
Win rate (20 trades)
75%
Cumulative P&L
-8.73%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+41.63%
Best event
+0.85%
Worst event
-5.83%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · JNJ (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -2.63% | |
| -3.62% | |
| +0.64% | |
| +0.64% | |
| -3.06% | |
| +0.64% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.75% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.79% | |
| +0.75% | |
| -5.83% | |
| +0.75% | |
| +0.80% | |
| +0.79% | |
| +0.85% | |
| +0.73% | |
| +0.63% | |
| +0.53% | |
| -4.31% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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