KDP dividend capture — median 2d pre-ex touch, 100% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.38), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, KDP sits roughly in line with the Consumer Defensive sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 25, 2026 (±3 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
100%
Median days-to-touch
2d
Signal-to-noise
0.38
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 2d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.38 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.54% | +0.11pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.71% | +0.28pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 19 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±3 days.
Dividend
$0.23
Per-event yield
0.71%
Annualized yield
2.75%
Previously paid
Jun 26, 2026 ($0.23)
Last record date
Jun 26, 2026
Last payment date
Jul 10, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.23 | 0.46% | $32.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.61% | -1.66% | |
| Q1 | $0.23 | -0.76% | $26.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.29% | -1.29% | |
| Q1 | $0.23 | -0.68% | $28.01 | 6 | no | yes | -3.71% | +0.04% | |
| Q3 | $0.23 | -0.43% | $25.75 | 4 | yes | yes | -2.80% | +1.24% | |
| Q2 | $0.23 | -0.61% | $33.04 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.33% | +2.94% | |
| Q1 | $0.23 | -0.50% | $34.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.52% | -0.64% | |
| Q1 | $0.23 | -0.22% | $31.76 | 10 | no | yes | -5.16% | -2.36% | |
| Q3 | $0.23 | -0.35% | $37.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.21% | -2.42% | |
| Q2 | $0.22 | -0.73% | $34.12 | 19 | no | yes | -6.80% | -4.73% | |
| Q1 | $0.22 | -0.62% | $30.73 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.46% | +0.54% | |
| Q1 | $0.22 | -0.80% | $32.59 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.71% | -1.30% | |
| Q3 | $0.22 | -0.35% | $31.67 | 2 | yes | yes | -7.99% | -3.93% | |
| Q2 | $0.20 | -1.07% | $30.90 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.39% | +3.43% | |
| Q1 | $0.20 | -0.26% | $35.29 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.28% | +1.56% | |
| Q1 | $0.20 | -1.37% | $35.84 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.16% | -0.20% | |
| Q3 | $0.20 | 0.03% | $36.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.16% | +2.11% | |
| Q2 | $0.19 | -1.49% | $35.68 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.79% | +1.98% | |
| Q1 | $0.19 | 0.00% | $38.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.49% | -0.92% | |
| Q1 | $0.19 | -0.89% | $37.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.32% | +2.52% | |
| Q3 | $0.19 | -0.14% | $34.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.35% | +1.61% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 10 | 50% | |
| 2–3 days | 6 | 30% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
Pre-filled with KDP's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical KDP ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.19%
Win rate (20 trades)
90%
Cumulative P&L
+3.82%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+8.70%
Best event
+0.89%
Worst event
-4.73%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · KDP (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.54% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.65% | |
| +0.68% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.70% | |
| -4.73% | |
| +0.61% | |
| -2.36% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.70% | |
| +0.89% | |
| +0.04% | |
| +0.88% | |
| +0.71% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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