Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.39), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, KDP sits roughly in line with the Consumer Defensive sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Jun 26, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.23.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 2din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.39in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 2d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.39 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.57% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.60% | +0.52pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 19 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
| Dividend | $0.23 |
| Per-event yield | 0.88% |
| Annualized yield | 2.99% |
| Previously paid | Mar 27, 2026 ($0.23) |
| Last record date | Mar 27, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 10, 2026 |
KDP Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.23 | -0.76% | $26.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.29% | -1.29% | |
| Q1 | $0.23 | -0.68% | $28.01 | 6 | no | yes | -3.71% | +0.04% | |
| Q3 | $0.23 | -0.43% | $25.75 | 4 | yes | yes | -2.80% | +1.24% | |
| Q2 | $0.23 | -0.61% | $33.04 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.33% | +2.94% | |
| Q1 | $0.23 | -0.50% | $34.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.52% | -0.64% | |
| Q1 | $0.23 | -0.22% | $31.76 | 10 | no | yes | -5.16% | -2.36% | |
| Q3 | $0.23 | -0.35% | $37.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.21% | -2.42% | |
| Q2 | $0.21 | -0.73% | $34.12 | 19 | no | yes | -6.80% | -4.73% | |
| Q1 | $0.21 | -0.62% | $30.73 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.46% | +0.54% | |
| Q1 | $0.21 | -0.80% | $32.59 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.71% | -1.30% | |
| Q3 | $0.21 | -0.35% | $31.67 | 2 | yes | yes | -7.99% | -3.93% | |
| Q2 | $0.20 | -1.07% | $30.90 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.39% | +3.43% | |
| Q1 | $0.20 | -0.26% | $35.29 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.28% | +1.56% | |
| Q1 | $0.20 | -1.37% | $35.84 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.16% | -0.20% | |
| Q3 | $0.20 | 0.03% | $36.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.16% | +2.11% | |
| Q2 | $0.19 | -1.49% | $35.68 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.79% | +1.98% | |
| Q1 | $0.19 | 0.00% | $38.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.49% | -0.92% | |
| Q1 | $0.19 | -0.89% | $37.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.32% | +2.52% | |
| Q3 | $0.19 | -0.14% | $34.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.35% | +1.61% | |
| Q2 | $0.19 | -0.28% | $35.24 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.73% | -0.80% |
- -1.29%
- +0.04%
- +1.24%
- +2.94%
- -0.64%
- -2.36%
- -2.42%
- -4.73%
- +0.54%
- -1.30%
- -3.93%
- +3.43%
- +1.56%
- -0.20%
- +2.11%
- +1.98%
- -0.92%
- +2.52%
- +1.61%
- -0.80%
KDP Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 10 | 50% | |
| 2–3 days | 6 | 30% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
KDP Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with KDP's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $46.00
- After-tax dividend
- $29.90
- Slippage round-trip
- -$5.25
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$24.65
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.47%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~23.6%
KDP Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical KDP ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · KDP (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.53% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.65% | |
| +0.68% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.70% | |
| -4.73% | |
| +0.61% | |
| -2.36% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.70% | |
| +0.89% | |
| +0.04% | |
| +0.88% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.