Coca-Cola (KO) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 79% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.54), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, KO sits noticeably below the Consumer Defensive sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 15, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 79%-16pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 2d+1.0d vs sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.54+0.16 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 79% | -16pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 2d | +1.0d vs sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.54 | +0.16 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.67% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 40% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.26% | +0.86pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 12 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
| Dividend | $0.53 |
| Per-event yield | 0.68% |
| Annualized yield | 2.57% |
| Previously paid | Mar 13, 2026 ($0.53) |
| Last record date | Mar 13, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 1, 2026 |
KO Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Coca-Cola (KO). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.53 | -0.18% | $77.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.56% | -3.00% | |
| Q4 | $0.51 | -0.71% | $73.12 | >30 | no | no | -5.92% | -3.23% | |
| Q3 | $0.51 | -0.49% | $67.01 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.25% | -0.43% | |
| Q2 | $0.51 | -0.65% | $72.24 | 12 | no | yes | -4.79% | -2.75% | |
| Q1 | $0.51 | -1.59% | $69.62 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.07% | -0.63% | |
| Q4 | $0.48 | -0.64% | $64.43 | >30 | no | no | -4.10% | -2.20% | |
| Q3 | $0.48 | -0.55% | $71.23 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.19% | +1.26% | |
| Q2 | $0.48 | -0.97% | $62.99 | 5 | yes | yes | -1.65% | +2.33% | |
| Q1 | $0.48 | -0.88% | $61.12 | 10 | no | yes | -2.42% | -0.27% | |
| Q4 | $0.46 | -0.46% | $58.23 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.08% | +1.67% | |
| Q3 | $0.46 | -0.34% | $58.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.72% | -0.75% | |
| Q2 | $0.46 | -0.41% | $60.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.79% | +1.31% | |
| Q1 | $0.46 | -0.56% | $60.43 | 3 | yes | yes | -1.31% | -0.08% | |
| Q4 | $0.44 | -0.75% | $62.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.17% | +2.40% | |
| Q3 | $0.44 | -0.64% | $60.79 | >30 | no | no | -8.03% | -1.79% | |
| Q2 | $0.44 | -0.99% | $61.34 | 6 | no | yes | -5.04% | +0.41% | |
| Q1 | $0.44 | 0.09% | $57.92 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.09% | +5.35% | |
| Q4 | $0.42 | -1.80% | $54.58 | 5 | yes | yes | -4.21% | +1.92% | |
| Q3 | $0.42 | -0.27% | $56.07 | >30 | no | no | -4.46% | -2.85% | |
| Q2 | $0.42 | -0.84% | $56.16 | 22 | no | yes | -4.34% | -2.46% |
- -3.00%
- -3.23%
- -0.43%
- -2.75%
- -0.63%
- -2.20%
- +1.26%
- +2.33%
- -0.27%
- +1.67%
- -0.75%
- +1.31%
- -0.08%
- +2.40%
- -1.79%
- +0.41%
- +5.35%
- +1.92%
- -2.85%
- -2.46%
KO Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 7 | 35% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 4 | 20% |
KO Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with KO's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $106.00
- After-tax dividend
- $68.90
- Slippage round-trip
- -$15.52
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$53.38
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.34%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~17.3%
KO Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical KO ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · KO (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -2.46% | |
| -2.85% | |
| +0.77% | |
| +0.76% | |
| +0.41% | |
| -1.79% | |
| +0.70% | |
| +0.76% | |
| +0.76% | |
| +0.79% | |
| +0.79% | |
| -0.27% | |
| +0.77% | |
| +0.68% | |
| -2.20% | |
| +0.73% | |
| -2.75% | |
| +0.76% | |
| -3.23% | |
| +0.68% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.