Coca-Cola (KO) Dividend Capture: 0.68% per event (2.7% annualized)
Coca-Cola (KO) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 80% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 3 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.55), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, KO sits noticeably below the Consumer Defensive sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Jun 15, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.53.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 80%-15pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 3d+1.5d vs sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.55+0.17 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 80%-15pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 3d+1.5d vs sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.55+0.17 vs sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -0.68%in line with sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 40%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -3.26%+0.81pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 22
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
- Dividend
- $0.53
- Per-event yield
- 0.68%
- Annualized yield
- 2.65%
- Previously paid
- Mar 13, 2026 ($0.53)
- Last record date
- Mar 13, 2026
- Last payment date
- Apr 1, 2026
How KO ranks in Consumer Defensive
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (40 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#35of 40
Beats ~13% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#36of 40
Beats ~10% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#9of 40
Beats ~78% of peers on this metric
KO Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Coca-Cola (KO). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.53 | -0.18% | $77.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.56% | -3.00% | |
| Q4 | $0.51 | -0.71% | $73.12 | >30 | no | no | -5.92% | -3.23% | |
| Q3 | $0.51 | -0.49% | $67.01 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.25% | -0.43% | |
| Q2 | $0.51 | -0.65% | $72.24 | 12 | no | yes | -4.79% | -2.75% | |
| Q1 | $0.51 | -1.59% | $69.62 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.07% | -0.63% | |
| Q4 | $0.48 | -0.64% | $64.43 | >30 | no | no | -4.10% | -2.20% | |
| Q3 | $0.48 | -0.55% | $71.23 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.19% | +1.26% | |
| Q2 | $0.48 | -0.97% | $62.99 | 5 | yes | yes | -1.65% | +2.33% | |
| Q1 | $0.48 | -0.88% | $61.12 | 10 | no | yes | -2.42% | -0.27% | |
| Q4 | $0.46 | -0.46% | $58.23 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.08% | +1.67% | |
| Q3 | $0.46 | -0.34% | $58.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.72% | -0.75% | |
| Q2 | $0.46 | -0.41% | $60.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.79% | +1.31% | |
| Q1 | $0.46 | -0.56% | $60.43 | 3 | yes | yes | -1.31% | -0.08% | |
| Q4 | $0.44 | -0.75% | $62.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.17% | +2.40% | |
| Q3 | $0.44 | -0.64% | $60.79 | >30 | no | no | -8.03% | -1.79% | |
| Q2 | $0.44 | -0.99% | $61.34 | 6 | no | yes | -5.04% | +0.41% | |
| Q1 | $0.44 | 0.09% | $57.92 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.09% | +5.35% | |
| Q4 | $0.42 | -1.80% | $54.58 | 5 | yes | yes | -4.21% | +1.92% | |
| Q3 | $0.42 | -0.27% | $56.07 | >30 | no | no | -4.46% | -2.85% | |
| Q2 | $0.42 | -0.84% | $56.16 | 22 | no | yes | -4.34% | -2.46% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.53
- Gap %
- -0.18%
- Pre-ex close
- $77.61
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.56%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.00%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.51
- Gap %
- -0.71%
- Pre-ex close
- $73.12
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -5.92%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.23%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.51
- Gap %
- -0.49%
- Pre-ex close
- $67.01
- High touch (td)
- 3
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.25%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.43%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.51
- Gap %
- -0.65%
- Pre-ex close
- $72.24
- High touch (td)
- 12
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.79%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.75%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.51
- Gap %
- -1.59%
- Pre-ex close
- $69.62
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.07%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.63%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.48
- Gap %
- -0.64%
- Pre-ex close
- $64.43
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -4.10%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.20%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.48
- Gap %
- -0.55%
- Pre-ex close
- $71.23
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.19%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.26%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.48
- Gap %
- -0.97%
- Pre-ex close
- $62.99
- High touch (td)
- 5
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.65%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.33%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.48
- Gap %
- -0.88%
- Pre-ex close
- $61.12
- High touch (td)
- 10
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.42%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.27%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.46
- Gap %
- -0.46%
- Pre-ex close
- $58.23
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.08%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.67%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.46
- Gap %
- -0.34%
- Pre-ex close
- $58.44
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.72%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.75%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.46
- Gap %
- -0.41%
- Pre-ex close
- $60.86
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.79%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.31%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.46
- Gap %
- -0.56%
- Pre-ex close
- $60.43
- High touch (td)
- 3
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.31%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.08%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.44
- Gap %
- -0.75%
- Pre-ex close
- $62.48
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.17%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.40%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.44
- Gap %
- -0.64%
- Pre-ex close
- $60.79
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -8.03%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.79%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.44
- Gap %
- -0.99%
- Pre-ex close
- $61.34
- High touch (td)
- 6
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.04%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.41%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.44
- Gap %
- 0.09%
- Pre-ex close
- $57.92
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- 0.09%
- P&L 5d %
- +5.35%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.42
- Gap %
- -1.80%
- Pre-ex close
- $54.58
- High touch (td)
- 5
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.21%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.92%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.42
- Gap %
- -0.27%
- Pre-ex close
- $56.07
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -4.46%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.85%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.42
- Gap %
- -0.84%
- Pre-ex close
- $56.16
- High touch (td)
- 22
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.34%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.46%
KO Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day735%
- 2–3 days315%
- 4–5 days210%
- 6–10 days210%
- 11–30 days210%
- 30+420%
35% within 1d · 60% within 5d · 80% within 30d
KO Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with KO's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $106.00
- After-tax dividend
- $68.90
- Slippage round-trip
- -$15.52
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$53.38
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.34%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~17.3%
KO Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical KO ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · KO (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -2.46% | |
| -2.85% | |
| +0.77% | |
| +0.76% | |
| +0.41% | |
| -1.79% | |
| +0.70% | |
| +0.76% | |
| +0.76% | |
| +0.79% | |
| +0.79% | |
| -0.27% | |
| +0.77% | |
| +0.68% | |
| -2.20% | |
| +0.73% | |
| -2.75% | |
| +0.76% | |
| -3.23% | |
| +0.68% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See KO seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for KO?
Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for Coca-Cola (KO), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 80% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 3 trading days. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take KO to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, KO touches its pre-ex close in a median of 3 trading days, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 22 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on KO large enough to capture?
KO has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.55 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for KO?
The next ex-dividend date for Coca-Cola (KO) is Jun 15, 2026, confirmed (declared by the company).
How does KO compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Consumer Defensive, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. KO sits at 80% — at or below the sector benchmark.
Why does KO dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.