Kroger (KR) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.27), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, KR sits roughly in line with the Consumer Defensive sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 14, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.27-0.11 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.27 | -0.11 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.14% | +0.50pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.26% | +0.85pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 6 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
| Dividend | $0.35 |
| Per-event yield | 0.50% |
| Annualized yield | 2.12% |
| Previously paid | Feb 13, 2026 ($0.35) |
| Last record date | Feb 13, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 1, 2026 |
KR Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Kroger (KR). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.35 | -0.50% | $70.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.85% | -2.18% | |
| Q4 | $0.35 | -0.05% | $65.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.59% | +0.67% | |
| Q3 | $0.35 | -0.45% | $69.23 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.57% | +0.98% | |
| Q2 | $0.32 | 0.32% | $66.34 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.48% | +2.91% | |
| Q1 | $0.32 | -0.50% | $65.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.14% | -0.66% | |
| Q4 | $0.32 | -0.36% | $59.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.39% | +0.78% | |
| Q3 | $0.32 | 0.83% | $52.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.28% | -0.30% | |
| Q2 | $0.29 | -0.02% | $55.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.63% | -2.26% | |
| Q1 | $0.29 | -0.66% | $45.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.88% | +5.62% | |
| Q4 | $0.29 | -0.54% | $44.18 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.71% | -1.99% | |
| Q3 | $0.29 | -0.33% | $48.98 | >30 | no | no | -5.86% | -2.65% | |
| Q2 | $0.26 | -0.39% | $49.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.00% | +1.51% | |
| Q1 | $0.26 | -0.27% | $44.89 | 6 | no | yes | -4.37% | -0.02% | |
| Q4 | $0.26 | 0.32% | $47.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.76% | +2.72% | |
| Q3 | $0.26 | -0.23% | $47.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.21% | +5.45% | |
| Q2 | $0.21 | 1.34% | $54.33 | 1 | yes | yes | -13.88% | -11.26% | |
| Q1 | $0.21 | -0.61% | $46.27 | 2 | yes | yes | -6.76% | -2.20% | |
| Q4 | $0.21 | -0.40% | $42.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.97% | -2.77% | |
| Q3 | $0.21 | -0.19% | $43.00 | 3 | yes | yes | -1.14% | +7.30% | |
| Q2 | $0.18 | -0.49% | $36.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.97% | -0.25% |
- -2.18%
- +0.67%
- +0.98%
- +2.91%
- -0.66%
- +0.78%
- -0.30%
- -2.26%
- +5.62%
- -1.99%
- -2.65%
- +1.51%
- -0.02%
- +2.72%
- +5.45%
- -11.26%
- -2.20%
- -2.77%
- +7.30%
- -0.25%
KR Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 16 | 80% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
KR Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with KR's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $70.00
- After-tax dividend
- $45.50
- Slippage round-trip
- -$14.03
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$31.47
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.22%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~11.3%
KR Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical KR ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · KR (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.49% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.55% | |
| -0.02% | |
| +0.53% | |
| -2.65% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.64% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.50% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.