Kroger (KR) Dividend Capture: 0.50% per event (2.1% annualized)
KR
Kroger (KR) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.27), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, KR sits roughly in line with the Consumer Defensive sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is May 15, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.35.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.27-0.12 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.27-0.12 vs sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -0.16%+0.46pp vs sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 45%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -3.26%+0.81pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 6
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
- Dividend
- $0.35
- Per-event yield
- 0.50%
- Annualized yield
- 2.09%
- Previously paid
- Feb 13, 2026 ($0.35)
- Last record date
- Feb 13, 2026
- Last payment date
- Mar 1, 2026
How KR ranks in Consumer Defensive
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (40 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#12of 40
Beats ~70% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#1of 40
Beats ~98% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#28of 40
Beats ~30% of peers on this metric
KR Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Kroger (KR). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.35 | -0.50% | $70.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.85% | -2.18% | |
| Q4 | $0.35 | -0.05% | $65.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.59% | +0.67% | |
| Q3 | $0.35 | -0.45% | $69.23 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.57% | +0.98% | |
| Q2 | $0.32 | 0.32% | $66.34 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.48% | +2.91% | |
| Q1 | $0.32 | -0.50% | $65.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.14% | -0.66% | |
| Q4 | $0.32 | -0.36% | $59.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.39% | +0.78% | |
| Q3 | $0.32 | 0.83% | $52.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.28% | -0.30% | |
| Q2 | $0.29 | -0.02% | $55.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.63% | -2.26% | |
| Q1 | $0.29 | -0.66% | $45.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.88% | +5.62% | |
| Q4 | $0.29 | -0.54% | $44.18 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.71% | -1.99% | |
| Q3 | $0.29 | -0.33% | $48.98 | >30 | no | no | -5.86% | -2.65% | |
| Q2 | $0.26 | -0.39% | $49.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.00% | +1.51% | |
| Q1 | $0.26 | -0.27% | $44.89 | 6 | no | yes | -4.37% | -0.02% | |
| Q4 | $0.26 | 0.32% | $47.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.76% | +2.72% | |
| Q3 | $0.26 | -0.23% | $47.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.21% | +5.45% | |
| Q2 | $0.21 | 1.34% | $54.33 | 1 | yes | yes | -13.88% | -11.26% | |
| Q1 | $0.21 | -0.61% | $46.27 | 2 | yes | yes | -6.76% | -2.20% | |
| Q4 | $0.21 | -0.40% | $42.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.97% | -2.77% | |
| Q3 | $0.21 | -0.19% | $43.00 | 3 | yes | yes | -1.14% | +7.30% | |
| Q2 | $0.18 | -0.49% | $36.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.97% | -0.25% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.35
- Gap %
- -0.50%
- Pre-ex close
- $70.14
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.85%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.18%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.35
- Gap %
- -0.05%
- Pre-ex close
- $65.97
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.59%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.67%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.35
- Gap %
- -0.45%
- Pre-ex close
- $69.23
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.57%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.98%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.32
- Gap %
- 0.32%
- Pre-ex close
- $66.34
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.48%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.91%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.32
- Gap %
- -0.50%
- Pre-ex close
- $65.63
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.14%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.66%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.32
- Gap %
- -0.36%
- Pre-ex close
- $59.08
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.39%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.78%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.32
- Gap %
- 0.83%
- Pre-ex close
- $52.70
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.28%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.30%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.29
- Gap %
- -0.02%
- Pre-ex close
- $55.20
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.63%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.26%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.29
- Gap %
- -0.66%
- Pre-ex close
- $45.57
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.88%
- P&L 5d %
- +5.62%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.29
- Gap %
- -0.54%
- Pre-ex close
- $44.18
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.71%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.99%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.29
- Gap %
- -0.33%
- Pre-ex close
- $48.98
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -5.86%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.65%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.26
- Gap %
- -0.39%
- Pre-ex close
- $49.16
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.00%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.51%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.26
- Gap %
- -0.27%
- Pre-ex close
- $44.89
- High touch (td)
- 6
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.37%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.02%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.26
- Gap %
- 0.32%
- Pre-ex close
- $47.10
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.76%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.72%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.26
- Gap %
- -0.23%
- Pre-ex close
- $47.19
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.21%
- P&L 5d %
- +5.45%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.21
- Gap %
- 1.34%
- Pre-ex close
- $54.33
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -13.88%
- P&L 5d %
- -11.26%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.21
- Gap %
- -0.61%
- Pre-ex close
- $46.27
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.76%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.20%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.21
- Gap %
- -0.40%
- Pre-ex close
- $42.27
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.97%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.77%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.21
- Gap %
- -0.19%
- Pre-ex close
- $43.00
- High touch (td)
- 3
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.14%
- P&L 5d %
- +7.30%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.18
- Gap %
- -0.49%
- Pre-ex close
- $36.63
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.97%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.25%
KR Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day1680%
- 2–3 days210%
- 4–5 days00%
- 6–10 days15%
- 11–30 days00%
- 30+15%
80% within 1d · 90% within 5d · 95% within 30d
KR Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with KR's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $70.00
- After-tax dividend
- $45.50
- Slippage round-trip
- -$14.03
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$31.47
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.22%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~11.3%
KR Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical KR ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · KR (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.49% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.55% | |
| -0.02% | |
| +0.53% | |
| -2.65% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.64% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.50% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See KR seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for KR?
Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for Kroger (KR), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take KR to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, KR touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 6 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on KR large enough to capture?
KR has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.27 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for KR?
The next ex-dividend date for Kroger (KR) is May 15, 2026, confirmed (declared by the company).
How does KR compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Consumer Defensive, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. KR sits at 95% — at or below the sector benchmark.
Why does KR dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.