Kenvue (KVUE) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 91% of the last 11 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.39), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, KVUE sits roughly in line with the Consumer Defensive sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 12, 2026 (±3 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 91%-4pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.39in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 11 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 91% | -4pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.39 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.77% | -0.13pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 64% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.41% | +1.71pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 2 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±3 days.
| Dividend | $0.21 |
| Per-event yield | 1.13% |
| Annualized yield | 4.83% |
| Previously paid | Feb 11, 2026 ($0.21) |
| Last record date | Feb 11, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Feb 25, 2026 |
KVUE Dividend Capture History — Last 11 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Kenvue (KVUE). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.21 | -1.20% | $18.32 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.97% | +2.99% | |
| Q4 | $0.21 | -0.36% | $16.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.67% | -2.71% | |
| Q3 | $0.21 | -0.64% | $21.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.25% | -0.29% | |
| Q2 | $0.20 | -1.10% | $23.66 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.41% | +2.30% | |
| Q1 | $0.20 | -1.82% | $20.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.96% | +8.06% | |
| Q4 | $0.20 | -0.85% | $23.65 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.58% | +1.42% | |
| Q3 | $0.20 | -0.84% | $21.34 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.03% | +2.60% | |
| Q2 | $0.20 | 1.94% | $19.08 | 1 | yes | yes | 1.94% | +9.17% | |
| Q1 | $0.20 | -0.97% | $19.59 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.44% | -0.46% | |
| Q4 | $0.20 | -0.67% | $19.35 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.81% | +1.34% | |
| Q3 | $0.20 | -1.94% | $23.66 | >30 | no | no | -13.86% | -2.11% |
- +2.99%
- -2.71%
- -0.29%
- +2.30%
- +8.06%
- +1.42%
- +2.60%
- +9.17%
- -0.46%
- +1.34%
- -2.11%
KVUE Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 8 | 73% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 18% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 9% |
KVUE Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with KVUE's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $42.00
- After-tax dividend
- $27.30
- Slippage round-trip
- -$3.66
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$23.64
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.65%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~32.5%
KVUE Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical KVUE ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
11 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · KVUE (11)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -2.11% | |
| +1.03% | |
| +1.02% | |
| +1.05% | |
| +0.96% | |
| +0.87% | |
| +0.98% | |
| +0.87% | |
| +0.95% | |
| +1.24% | |
| +1.13% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.