Linde (LIN) Dividend Capture: 0.33% per event (1.2% annualized)
LIN
Linde (LIN) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.22), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, LIN sits roughly in line with the Basic Materials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Jun 4, 2026, with an expected dividend of $1.60.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.22in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.22in line with sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -0.25%+0.14pp vs sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 50%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -2.27%+2.37pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 4
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
- Dividend
- $1.60
- Per-event yield
- 0.33%
- Annualized yield
- 1.24%
- Previously paid
- Mar 11, 2026 ($1.60)
- Last record date
- Mar 11, 2026
- Last payment date
- Mar 26, 2026
How LIN ranks in Basic Materials
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (28 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#1of 28
Beats ~96% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#1of 28
Beats ~96% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#10of 28
Beats ~64% of peers on this metric
LIN Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Linde (LIN). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.60 | -0.16% | $477.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.42% | +2.56% | |
| Q4 | $1.50 | -0.11% | $408.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.14% | -3.57% | |
| Q3 | $1.50 | -0.22% | $471.78 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.10% | +2.82% | |
| Q2 | $1.50 | -0.14% | $471.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.46% | -0.38% | |
| Q1 | $1.50 | -0.38% | $451.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.81% | +1.79% | |
| Q4 | $1.39 | 0.48% | $459.69 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.02% | -2.93% | |
| Q3 | $1.39 | 0.46% | $474.05 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.33% | -1.59% | |
| Q2 | $1.39 | -0.70% | $434.33 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.78% | +0.58% | |
| Q1 | $1.39 | -0.32% | $471.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.90% | -0.70% | |
| Q4 | $1.27 | -0.32% | $413.77 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.96% | -2.71% | |
| Q3 | $1.27 | 0.55% | $387.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.95% | +0.93% | |
| Q2 | $1.27 | 0.46% | $353.66 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.12% | +2.78% | |
| Q1 | $1.27 | -0.82% | $341.54 | 2 | yes | yes | -5.10% | -0.43% | |
| Q4 | $1.17 | 0.24% | $336.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.08% | -0.20% | |
| Q3 | $1.17 | -1.78% | $282.86 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.38% | +1.89% | |
| Q2 | $1.17 | 1.23% | $319.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.26% | +0.08% | |
| Q1 | $1.17 | -4.18% | $292.77 | 4 | yes | yes | -4.31% | +6.07% | |
| Q4 | $1.06 | 0.54% | $318.29 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.01% | +4.68% | |
| Q3 | $1.06 | 0.18% | $313.88 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.26% | -0.76% | |
| Q2 | $1.06 | 0.02% | $302.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.74% | -3.55% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.60
- Gap %
- -0.16%
- Pre-ex close
- $477.94
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.42%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.56%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.50
- Gap %
- -0.11%
- Pre-ex close
- $408.79
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.14%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.57%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.50
- Gap %
- -0.22%
- Pre-ex close
- $471.78
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.10%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.82%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.50
- Gap %
- -0.14%
- Pre-ex close
- $471.82
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.46%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.38%
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.50
- Gap %
- -0.38%
- Pre-ex close
- $451.17
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.81%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.79%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.39
- Gap %
- 0.48%
- Pre-ex close
- $459.69
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -7.02%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.93%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.39
- Gap %
- 0.46%
- Pre-ex close
- $474.05
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.33%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.59%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.39
- Gap %
- -0.70%
- Pre-ex close
- $434.33
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.78%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.58%
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.39
- Gap %
- -0.32%
- Pre-ex close
- $471.47
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.90%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.70%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.27
- Gap %
- -0.32%
- Pre-ex close
- $413.77
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.96%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.71%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.27
- Gap %
- 0.55%
- Pre-ex close
- $387.04
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.95%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.93%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.27
- Gap %
- 0.46%
- Pre-ex close
- $353.66
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.12%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.78%
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.27
- Gap %
- -0.82%
- Pre-ex close
- $341.54
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.10%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.43%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.17
- Gap %
- 0.24%
- Pre-ex close
- $336.48
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.08%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.20%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.17
- Gap %
- -1.78%
- Pre-ex close
- $282.86
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.38%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.89%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.17
- Gap %
- 1.23%
- Pre-ex close
- $319.61
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -8.26%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.08%
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.17
- Gap %
- -4.18%
- Pre-ex close
- $292.77
- High touch (td)
- 4
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.31%
- P&L 5d %
- +6.07%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.06
- Gap %
- 0.54%
- Pre-ex close
- $318.29
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.01%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.68%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.06
- Gap %
- 0.18%
- Pre-ex close
- $313.88
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.26%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.76%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.06
- Gap %
- 0.02%
- Pre-ex close
- $302.26
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.74%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.55%
LIN Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day1680%
- 2–3 days315%
- 4–5 days15%
- 6–10 days00%
- 11–30 days00%
- 30+00%
80% within 1d · 100% within 5d · 100% within 30d
LIN Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with LIN's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $320.00
- After-tax dividend
- $208.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$95.59
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$112.41
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.12%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~5.9%
LIN Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical LIN ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · LIN (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.35% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.33% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See LIN seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for LIN?
Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for Linde (LIN), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take LIN to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, LIN touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 4 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on LIN large enough to capture?
LIN has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.22 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for LIN?
The next ex-dividend date for Linde (LIN) is Jun 4, 2026, confirmed (declared by the company).
How does LIN compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Basic Materials, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. LIN sits at 100% — above the sector benchmark.
Why does LIN dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.