Linde (LIN) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.22), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, LIN sits roughly in line with the Basic Materials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 3, 2026 (±5 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.22in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.22 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.26% | +0.15pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.27% | +2.44pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 4 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±5 days.
| Dividend | $1.60 |
| Per-event yield | 0.33% |
| Annualized yield | 1.22% |
| Previously paid | Mar 11, 2026 ($1.60) |
| Last record date | Mar 11, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 26, 2026 |
LIN Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Linde (LIN). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.60 | -0.16% | $477.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.42% | +2.56% | |
| Q4 | $1.50 | -0.11% | $408.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.14% | -3.57% | |
| Q3 | $1.50 | -0.22% | $471.78 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.10% | +2.82% | |
| Q2 | $1.50 | -0.14% | $471.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.46% | -0.38% | |
| Q1 | $1.50 | -0.38% | $451.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.81% | +1.79% | |
| Q4 | $1.39 | 0.48% | $459.69 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.02% | -2.93% | |
| Q3 | $1.39 | 0.46% | $474.05 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.33% | -1.59% | |
| Q2 | $1.39 | -0.70% | $434.33 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.78% | +0.58% | |
| Q1 | $1.39 | -0.32% | $471.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.90% | -0.70% | |
| Q4 | $1.27 | -0.32% | $413.77 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.96% | -2.71% | |
| Q3 | $1.27 | 0.55% | $387.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.95% | +0.93% | |
| Q2 | $1.27 | 0.46% | $353.66 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.12% | +2.78% | |
| Q1 | $1.27 | -0.82% | $341.54 | 2 | yes | yes | -5.10% | -0.43% | |
| Q4 | $1.17 | 0.24% | $336.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.08% | -0.20% | |
| Q3 | $1.17 | -1.78% | $282.86 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.38% | +1.89% | |
| Q2 | $1.17 | 1.23% | $319.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.26% | +0.08% | |
| Q1 | $1.17 | -4.18% | $292.77 | 4 | yes | yes | -4.31% | +6.07% | |
| Q4 | $1.06 | 0.54% | $318.29 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.01% | +4.68% | |
| Q3 | $1.06 | 0.18% | $313.88 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.26% | -0.76% | |
| Q2 | $1.06 | 0.02% | $302.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.74% | -3.55% |
- +2.56%
- -3.57%
- +2.82%
- -0.38%
- +1.79%
- -2.93%
- -1.59%
- +0.58%
- -0.70%
- -2.71%
- +0.93%
- +2.78%
- -0.43%
- -0.20%
- +1.89%
- +0.08%
- +6.07%
- +4.68%
- -0.76%
- -3.55%
LIN Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 16 | 80% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
LIN Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with LIN's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $320.00
- After-tax dividend
- $208.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$95.59
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$112.41
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.12%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~5.9%
LIN Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical LIN ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · LIN (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.35% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.33% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.