LKQ (LKQ) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 18 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.26), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, LKQ sits roughly in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 20, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.26+0.05 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 18 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.26 | +0.05 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.65% | -0.17pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 39% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.57% | +0.10pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 26 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
| Dividend | $0.30 |
| Per-event yield | 0.97% |
| Annualized yield | 4.46% |
| Previously paid | Mar 12, 2026 ($0.30) |
| Last record date | Mar 12, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 26, 2026 |
LKQ Dividend Capture History — Last 18 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for LKQ (LKQ). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.30 | -1.81% | $30.95 | 26 | no | yes | -10.69% | -6.75% | |
| Q4 | $0.30 | -1.49% | $29.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.38% | +1.32% | |
| Q3 | $0.30 | -1.92% | $31.71 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.60% | -2.59% | |
| Q2 | $0.30 | -0.60% | $42.02 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.71% | -2.88% | |
| Q1 | $0.30 | -0.82% | $42.54 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.69% | -2.96% | |
| Q4 | $0.30 | -0.28% | $38.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.03% | -1.39% | |
| Q3 | $0.30 | 1.19% | $39.39 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.33% | +6.85% | |
| Q2 | $0.30 | -0.23% | $44.23 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.35% | -0.02% | |
| Q1 | $0.30 | -0.27% | $51.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.50% | +1.35% | |
| Q4 | $0.30 | -0.26% | $46.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.83% | -0.78% | |
| Q3 | $0.28 | -0.49% | $52.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.89% | -1.28% | |
| Q2 | $0.28 | 0.32% | $55.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.00% | -3.12% | |
| Q1 | $0.28 | -2.60% | $54.51 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.60% | +0.58% | |
| Q4 | $0.28 | -1.10% | $54.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.54% | +0.85% | |
| Q3 | $0.25 | 1.56% | $54.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.40% | +3.94% | |
| Q2 | $0.25 | -2.63% | $52.47 | 13 | no | yes | -10.67% | -4.99% | |
| Q1 | $0.25 | 0.46% | $45.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.63% | -1.13% | |
| Q4 | $0.25 | -0.66% | $57.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.43% | +3.08% |
- -6.75%
- +1.32%
- -2.59%
- -2.88%
- -2.96%
- -1.39%
- +6.85%
- -0.02%
- +1.35%
- -0.78%
- -1.28%
- -3.12%
- +0.58%
- +0.85%
- +3.94%
- -4.99%
- -1.13%
- +3.08%
LKQ Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 14 | 78% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 11% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 11% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
LKQ Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with LKQ's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $60.00
- After-tax dividend
- $39.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$6.19
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$32.81
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.53%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~26.7%
LKQ Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical LKQ ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
18 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · LKQ (18)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.43% | |
| +0.55% | |
| -4.99% | |
| +0.46% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.52% | |
| +0.65% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.68% | |
| +0.76% | |
| +0.77% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.95% | |
| +1.01% | |
| -6.75% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.