LKQ (LKQ) Dividend Capture: 0.97% per event (4.2% annualized)
LKQ
LKQ (LKQ) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 18 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.26), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, LKQ sits roughly in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is May 21, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.30.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.26in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 18 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.26in line with sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -0.65%-0.23pp vs sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 39%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -4.57%+0.10pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 26
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
- Dividend
- $0.30
- Per-event yield
- 0.97%
- Annualized yield
- 4.24%
- Previously paid
- Mar 12, 2026 ($0.30)
- Last record date
- Mar 12, 2026
- Last payment date
- Mar 26, 2026
How LKQ ranks in Consumer Cyclical
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (44 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#1of 44
Beats ~98% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#1of 44
Beats ~98% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#18of 44
Beats ~59% of peers on this metric
LKQ Dividend Capture History — Last 18 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for LKQ (LKQ). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.30 | -1.81% | $30.95 | 26 | no | yes | -10.69% | -6.75% | |
| Q4 | $0.30 | -1.49% | $29.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.38% | +1.32% | |
| Q3 | $0.30 | -1.92% | $31.71 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.60% | -2.59% | |
| Q2 | $0.30 | -0.60% | $42.02 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.71% | -2.88% | |
| Q1 | $0.30 | -0.82% | $42.54 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.69% | -2.96% | |
| Q4 | $0.30 | -0.28% | $38.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.03% | -1.39% | |
| Q3 | $0.30 | 1.19% | $39.39 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.33% | +6.85% | |
| Q2 | $0.30 | -0.23% | $44.23 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.35% | -0.02% | |
| Q1 | $0.30 | -0.27% | $51.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.50% | +1.35% | |
| Q4 | $0.30 | -0.26% | $46.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.83% | -0.78% | |
| Q3 | $0.28 | -0.49% | $52.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.89% | -1.28% | |
| Q2 | $0.28 | 0.32% | $55.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.00% | -3.12% | |
| Q1 | $0.28 | -2.60% | $54.51 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.60% | +0.58% | |
| Q4 | $0.28 | -1.10% | $54.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.54% | +0.85% | |
| Q3 | $0.25 | 1.56% | $54.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.40% | +3.94% | |
| Q2 | $0.25 | -2.63% | $52.47 | 13 | no | yes | -10.67% | -4.99% | |
| Q1 | $0.25 | 0.46% | $45.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.63% | -1.13% | |
| Q4 | $0.25 | -0.66% | $57.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.43% | +3.08% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.30
- Gap %
- -1.81%
- Pre-ex close
- $30.95
- High touch (td)
- 26
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -10.69%
- P&L 5d %
- -6.75%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.30
- Gap %
- -1.49%
- Pre-ex close
- $29.60
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.38%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.32%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.30
- Gap %
- -1.92%
- Pre-ex close
- $31.71
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.60%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.59%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.30
- Gap %
- -0.60%
- Pre-ex close
- $42.02
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.71%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.88%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.30
- Gap %
- -0.82%
- Pre-ex close
- $42.54
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.69%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.96%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.30
- Gap %
- -0.28%
- Pre-ex close
- $38.72
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.03%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.39%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.30
- Gap %
- 1.19%
- Pre-ex close
- $39.39
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- 0.33%
- P&L 5d %
- +6.85%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.30
- Gap %
- -0.23%
- Pre-ex close
- $44.23
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.35%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.02%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.30
- Gap %
- -0.27%
- Pre-ex close
- $51.90
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.50%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.35%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.30
- Gap %
- -0.26%
- Pre-ex close
- $46.40
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.83%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.78%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.28
- Gap %
- -0.49%
- Pre-ex close
- $52.91
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.89%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.28%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.28
- Gap %
- 0.32%
- Pre-ex close
- $55.86
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -8.00%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.12%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.28
- Gap %
- -2.60%
- Pre-ex close
- $54.51
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.60%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.58%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.28
- Gap %
- -1.10%
- Pre-ex close
- $54.65
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.54%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.85%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.25
- Gap %
- 1.56%
- Pre-ex close
- $54.52
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.40%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.94%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.25
- Gap %
- -2.63%
- Pre-ex close
- $52.47
- High touch (td)
- 13
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -10.67%
- P&L 5d %
- -4.99%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.25
- Gap %
- 0.46%
- Pre-ex close
- $45.86
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -7.63%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.13%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.25
- Gap %
- -0.66%
- Pre-ex close
- $57.53
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.43%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.08%
LKQ Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day1478%
- 2–3 days211%
- 4–5 days00%
- 6–10 days00%
- 11–30 days211%
- 30+00%
78% within 1d · 89% within 5d · 100% within 30d
LKQ Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with LKQ's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $60.00
- After-tax dividend
- $39.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$6.19
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$32.81
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.53%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~26.7%
LKQ Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical LKQ ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
18 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · LKQ (18)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.43% | |
| +0.55% | |
| -4.99% | |
| +0.46% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.52% | |
| +0.65% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.68% | |
| +0.76% | |
| +0.77% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.95% | |
| +1.01% | |
| -6.75% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See LKQ seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for LKQ?
Across the last 18 ex-dividend events for LKQ (LKQ), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take LKQ to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, LKQ touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 26 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on LKQ large enough to capture?
LKQ has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.26 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for LKQ?
The next ex-dividend date for LKQ (LKQ) is May 21, 2026, confirmed (declared by the company).
How does LKQ compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Consumer Cyclical, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. LKQ sits at 100% — above the sector benchmark.
Why does LKQ dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.