McKesson (MCK) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.07), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, MCK sits roughly in line with the Healthcare sector benchmark of 100%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 31, 2026 (±2 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.07-0.08 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.07 | -0.08 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.49% | -0.16pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.40% | +1.01pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 28 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±2 days.
| Dividend | $0.82 |
| Per-event yield | 0.08% |
| Annualized yield | 0.45% |
| Previously paid | Mar 2, 2026 ($0.82) |
| Last record date | Mar 2, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 1, 2026 |
MCK Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for McKesson (MCK). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.82 | 0.27% | $987.37 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.86% | -4.50% | |
| Q4 | $0.82 | -0.61% | $881.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.35% | -9.35% | |
| Q3 | $0.82 | 0.10% | $686.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.62% | +2.87% | |
| Q2 | $0.71 | -0.18% | $719.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.00% | -1.47% | |
| Q1 | $0.71 | -0.41% | $640.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.87% | +3.01% | |
| Q4 | $0.71 | -0.48% | $628.50 | >30 | no | no | -9.10% | -5.71% | |
| Q3 | $0.71 | -0.03% | $556.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.50% | -8.27% | |
| Q2 | $0.62 | -0.67% | $569.59 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.67% | +3.92% | |
| Q1 | $0.62 | -0.16% | $523.68 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.10% | +1.03% | |
| Q4 | $0.62 | -0.32% | $456.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.46% | -0.09% | |
| Q3 | $0.62 | -0.22% | $421.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.00% | -0.05% | |
| Q2 | $0.54 | -1.77% | $384.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.86% | +0.23% | |
| Q1 | $0.54 | -0.40% | $355.35 | 21 | no | yes | -6.22% | -4.92% | |
| Q4 | $0.54 | -0.48% | $381.78 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.62% | +1.12% | |
| Q3 | $0.54 | -0.16% | $364.01 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.04% | +1.84% | |
| Q2 | $0.47 | -1.27% | $334.96 | 28 | no | yes | -8.80% | -3.83% | |
| Q1 | $0.47 | -1.63% | $275.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.44% | +1.27% | |
| Q4 | $0.47 | -0.61% | $223.27 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.58% | +0.79% | |
| Q3 | $0.47 | -0.24% | $201.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.69% | +2.72% | |
| Q2 | $0.42 | -0.08% | $194.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.21% | +0.59% |
- -4.50%
- -9.35%
- +2.87%
- -1.47%
- +3.01%
- -5.71%
- -8.27%
- +3.92%
- +1.03%
- -0.09%
- -0.05%
- +0.23%
- -4.92%
- +1.12%
- +1.84%
- -3.83%
- +1.27%
- +0.79%
- +2.72%
- +0.59%
MCK Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 16 | 80% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
MCK Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with MCK's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $164.00
- After-tax dividend
- $106.60
- Slippage round-trip
- -$197.47
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- $-90.87
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.05%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- -0.05%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~-2.3%
MCK Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical MCK ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · MCK (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.22% | |
| +0.23% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.17% | |
| -3.83% | |
| +0.15% | |
| +0.14% | |
| -4.92% | |
| +0.14% | |
| +0.15% | |
| +0.14% | |
| +0.12% | |
| +0.11% | |
| +0.13% | |
| -5.71% | |
| +0.11% | |
| +0.10% | |
| +0.12% | |
| +0.09% | |
| +0.08% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.