Moody's (MCO) Dividend Capture: 0.22% per event (0.9% annualized)
MCO
Moody's (MCO) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.10), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, MCO sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is May 15, 2026, with an expected dividend of $1.03.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.10-0.21 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.10-0.21 vs sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -0.25%+0.32pp vs sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 65%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -2.58%+1.81pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 1
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
- Dividend
- $1.03
- Per-event yield
- 0.22%
- Annualized yield
- 0.87%
- Previously paid
- Mar 2, 2026 ($1.03)
- Last record date
- Mar 2, 2026
- Last payment date
- Mar 13, 2026
How MCO ranks in Financial Services
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (101 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#31of 101
Beats ~69% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#1of 101
Beats ~99% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#94of 101
Beats ~7% of peers on this metric
MCO Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Moody's (MCO). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.03 | -1.69% | $477.59 | >30 | no | no | -11.61% | -2.90% | |
| Q4 | $0.94 | 0.35% | $474.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.20% | +2.88% | |
| Q3 | $0.94 | 0.02% | $521.32 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.97% | -0.84% | |
| Q2 | $0.94 | -0.08% | $487.33 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.21% | -3.44% | |
| Q1 | $0.94 | 0.73% | $500.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.90% | -3.73% | |
| Q4 | $0.85 | 0.00% | $477.92 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.19% | +4.26% | |
| Q3 | $0.85 | -0.11% | $467.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.73% | +2.81% | |
| Q2 | $0.85 | -0.29% | $409.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.64% | -0.50% | |
| Q1 | $0.85 | 1.23% | $375.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.04% | +1.17% | |
| Q4 | $0.77 | 0.31% | $363.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.46% | +0.53% | |
| Q3 | $0.77 | -0.01% | $331.56 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.58% | +0.08% | |
| Q2 | $0.77 | -0.17% | $309.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.48% | +0.31% | |
| Q1 | $0.77 | 0.20% | $294.41 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.26% | -1.12% | |
| Q4 | $0.70 | 0.20% | $291.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.57% | +2.41% | |
| Q3 | $0.70 | -0.21% | $321.56 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.70% | -4.61% | |
| Q2 | $0.70 | -0.95% | $280.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.97% | +6.96% | |
| Q1 | $0.70 | -2.51% | $318.89 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.71% | +2.10% | |
| Q4 | $0.62 | -0.17% | $387.42 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.33% | +0.99% | |
| Q3 | $0.62 | -0.69% | $373.92 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.32% | +0.55% | |
| Q2 | $0.62 | -1.23% | $323.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.51% | +2.47% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.03
- Gap %
- -1.69%
- Pre-ex close
- $477.59
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -11.61%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.90%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.94
- Gap %
- 0.35%
- Pre-ex close
- $474.52
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.20%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.88%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.94
- Gap %
- 0.02%
- Pre-ex close
- $521.32
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.97%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.84%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.94
- Gap %
- -0.08%
- Pre-ex close
- $487.33
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.21%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.44%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.94
- Gap %
- 0.73%
- Pre-ex close
- $500.95
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -10.90%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.73%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.85
- Gap %
- 0.00%
- Pre-ex close
- $477.92
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.19%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.26%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.85
- Gap %
- -0.11%
- Pre-ex close
- $467.12
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.73%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.81%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.85
- Gap %
- -0.29%
- Pre-ex close
- $409.90
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.64%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.50%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.85
- Gap %
- 1.23%
- Pre-ex close
- $375.86
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.04%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.17%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.77
- Gap %
- 0.31%
- Pre-ex close
- $363.80
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.46%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.53%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.77
- Gap %
- -0.01%
- Pre-ex close
- $331.56
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.58%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.08%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.77
- Gap %
- -0.17%
- Pre-ex close
- $309.48
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.48%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.31%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.77
- Gap %
- 0.20%
- Pre-ex close
- $294.41
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.26%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.12%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.70
- Gap %
- 0.20%
- Pre-ex close
- $291.94
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.57%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.41%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.70
- Gap %
- -0.21%
- Pre-ex close
- $321.56
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -11.70%
- P&L 5d %
- -4.61%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.70
- Gap %
- -0.95%
- Pre-ex close
- $280.60
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.97%
- P&L 5d %
- +6.96%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.70
- Gap %
- -2.51%
- Pre-ex close
- $318.89
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.71%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.10%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.62
- Gap %
- -0.17%
- Pre-ex close
- $387.42
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.33%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.99%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.62
- Gap %
- -0.69%
- Pre-ex close
- $373.92
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.32%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.55%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.62
- Gap %
- -1.23%
- Pre-ex close
- $323.81
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.51%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.47%
MCO Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day1995%
- 2–3 days00%
- 4–5 days00%
- 6–10 days00%
- 11–30 days00%
- 30+15%
95% within 1d · 95% within 5d · 95% within 30d
MCO Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with MCO's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $206.00
- After-tax dividend
- $133.90
- Slippage round-trip
- -$95.52
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$38.38
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.04%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~2.0%
MCO Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical MCO ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · MCO (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.19% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.25% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.25% | |
| +0.23% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.23% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.20% | |
| -2.90% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See MCO seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for MCO?
Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for Moody's (MCO), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take MCO to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, MCO touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 1 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on MCO large enough to capture?
MCO has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.10 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for MCO?
The next ex-dividend date for Moody's (MCO) is May 15, 2026, confirmed (declared by the company).
How does MCO compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Financial Services, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. MCO sits at 95% — at or below the sector benchmark.
Why does MCO dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.