MCO dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 95% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Moody's (MCO) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.10), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, MCO sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Aug 14, 2026, with an expected dividend of $1.03.
Touch rate (30d)
95%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.10
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.10 | -0.21 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.19% | +0.39pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 65% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.58% | +1.83pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 1 | — |
Confirmed by company declaration.
Dividend
$1.03
Per-event yield
0.24%
Annualized yield
0.83%
Previously paid
May 15, 2026 ($1.03)
Last record date
May 15, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 5, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Moody's (MCO). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $1.03 | -0.05% | $432.68 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.50% | +4.04% | |
| Q1 | $1.03 | -1.69% | $477.59 | >30 | no | no | -11.61% | -2.90% | |
| Q4 | $0.94 | 0.35% | $474.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.20% | +2.88% | |
| Q3 | $0.94 | 0.02% | $521.32 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.97% | -0.84% | |
| Q2 | $0.94 | -0.08% | $487.33 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.21% | -3.44% | |
| Q1 | $0.94 | 0.73% | $500.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.90% | -3.73% | |
| Q4 | $0.85 | 0.00% | $477.92 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.19% | +4.26% | |
| Q3 | $0.85 | -0.11% | $467.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.73% | +2.81% | |
| Q2 | $0.85 | -0.29% | $409.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.64% | -0.50% | |
| Q1 | $0.85 | 1.23% | $375.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.04% | +1.17% | |
| Q4 | $0.77 | 0.31% | $363.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.46% | +0.53% | |
| Q3 | $0.77 | -0.01% | $331.56 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.58% | +0.08% | |
| Q2 | $0.77 | -0.17% | $309.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.48% | +0.31% | |
| Q1 | $0.77 | 0.20% | $294.41 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.26% | -1.12% | |
| Q4 | $0.70 | 0.20% | $291.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.57% | +2.41% | |
| Q3 | $0.70 | -0.21% | $321.56 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.70% | -4.61% | |
| Q2 | $0.70 | -0.95% | $280.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.97% | +6.96% | |
| Q1 | $0.70 | -2.51% | $318.89 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.71% | +2.10% | |
| Q4 | $0.62 | -0.17% | $387.42 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.33% | +0.99% | |
| Q3 | $0.62 | -0.69% | $373.92 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.32% | +0.55% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 19 | 95% | |
| 2–3 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with MCO's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical MCO ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.05%
Win rate (20 trades)
95%
Cumulative P&L
+1.09%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+19.07%
Best event
+0.26%
Worst event
-2.90%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · MCO (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.17% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.25% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.25% | |
| +0.23% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.23% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.20% | |
| -2.90% | |
| +0.24% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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