What is the dividend capture success rate for MGM?

Across the last 7 ex-dividend events for MGM Resorts (MGM), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 86% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.

How long does it take MGM to recover its dividend gap?

Historically, MGM touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 12 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.

Is the dividend on MGM large enough to capture?

MGM has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.00 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.

How does MGM compare to its sector for dividend capture?

Within Consumer Cyclical, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. MGM sits at 86% — at or below the sector benchmark.

Why does MGM dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?

A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".

How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?

Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.

What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?

Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.

MGM Resorts (MGM) Dividend Capture: 0.01% per event (0.0% annualized)

Updated May 6, 20267 eventsmedium

MGM Resorts

MGM

MGM Resorts (MGM) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 86% of the last 7 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.00), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.

Versus its sector, MGM sits noticeably below the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.

Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit.

Touch rate (30d): 86%-9pp vs sector
Median days-to-touch: 1din line with sector
Signal-to-noise: 0.00-0.21 vs sector

Recovery engine

TL;DR over the most recent 7 events.

30-day touch rate: 86%
-9pp vs sector
Median days-to-touch: 1d
in line with sector
Signal-to-noise (div / ATR): 0.00
-0.21 vs sector
Avg gap on ex-date: 0.16%
+0.57pp vs sector
Win rate at MOC exit: 45%
Median drawdown during hold: -4.76%
in line with sector
Best / worst touch (days): 1 / 12

Next ex-dividend

The company has not declared a dividend, and we don't have enough recent history to extrapolate a reliable estimate.

How MGM ranks in Consumer Cyclical

Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (44 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.

Full sector ranking

30-day touch rate
#39of 44
Beats ~11% of peers on this metric
Median days to touch
#1of 44
Beats ~98% of peers on this metric
Signal-to-noise
#45of 44
Beats ~-2% of peers on this metric

MGM Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events

Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for MGM Resorts (MGM). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.

						Recovered 5d	Recovered 30d
Dec 8, 2022	Q4	$0.00	1.68%	$36.38	1	yes	yes	-6.95%	-0.43%
Sep 8, 2022	Q3	$0.00	-1.67%	$33.59	1	yes	yes	-4.00%	+2.51%
Jun 9, 2022	Q2	$0.00	-1.33%	$35.40	>30	no	no	-25.40%	-22.62%
Mar 9, 2022	Q1	$0.00	4.15%	$37.63	1	yes	yes	1.81%	+12.07%
Dec 9, 2021	Q4	$0.00	-1.52%	$42.89	1	yes	yes	-7.40%	-4.87%
Sep 9, 2021	Q3	$0.00	0.02%	$42.44	1	yes	yes	-7.55%	-2.68%
Jun 9, 2021	Q2	$0.00	-0.23%	$44.16	12	no	yes	-8.29%	-4.66%
Mar 9, 2021	Q1	$0.00	1.32%	$37.85	1	yes	yes	-2.03%	+5.45%
Dec 9, 2020	Q4	$0.00	0.87%	$29.89	1	yes	yes	-1.71%	+3.66%
Sep 9, 2020	Q3	$0.00	0.35%	$23.17	1	yes	yes	-11.22%	-0.68%
Jun 9, 2020	Q2	$0.00	-3.87%	$23.76	>30	no	no	-26.77%	-18.55%
Mar 9, 2020	Q1	$0.15	-8.78%	$20.39	2	yes	yes	-71.06%	-48.99%
Dec 9, 2019	Q4	$0.13	-0.75%	$32.17	3	yes	yes	-1.34%	+2.83%
Sep 9, 2019	Q3	$0.13	0.57%	$28.30	1	yes	yes	-0.95%	+5.37%
Jun 7, 2019	Q2	$0.13	-0.60%	$26.49	1	yes	yes	-1.36%	+4.91%
Mar 7, 2019	Q1	$0.13	-0.15%	$26.97	5	yes	yes	-3.84%	-1.45%
Dec 7, 2018	Q4	$0.12	-0.88%	$27.42	1	yes	yes	-15.06%	-3.06%
Sep 7, 2018	Q3	$0.12	-0.96%	$27.00	1	yes	yes	-2.56%	+2.96%
Jun 7, 2018	Q2	$0.12	-0.48%	$31.55	1	yes	yes	-5.52%	-0.00%
Mar 8, 2018	Q1	$0.12	1.29%	$34.86	1	yes	yes	0.90%	+2.70%

Ex-date Dec 8, 2022Q4
Dividend
$0.00
Gap %
1.68%
Pre-ex close
$36.38
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-6.95%
P&L 5d %
-0.43%
Ex-date Sep 8, 2022Q3
Dividend
$0.00
Gap %
-1.67%
Pre-ex close
$33.59
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-4.00%
P&L 5d %
+2.51%
Ex-date Jun 9, 2022Q2
Dividend
$0.00
Gap %
-1.33%
Pre-ex close
$35.40
High touch (td)
>30
Recovered 5d
no
Recovered 30d
no
Drawdown
-25.40%
P&L 5d %
-22.62%
Ex-date Mar 9, 2022Q1
Dividend
$0.00
Gap %
4.15%
Pre-ex close
$37.63
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
1.81%
P&L 5d %
+12.07%
Ex-date Dec 9, 2021Q4
Dividend
$0.00
Gap %
-1.52%
Pre-ex close
$42.89
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-7.40%
P&L 5d %
-4.87%
Ex-date Sep 9, 2021Q3
Dividend
$0.00
Gap %
0.02%
Pre-ex close
$42.44
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-7.55%
P&L 5d %
-2.68%
Ex-date Jun 9, 2021Q2
Dividend
$0.00
Gap %
-0.23%
Pre-ex close
$44.16
High touch (td)
12
Recovered 5d
no
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-8.29%
P&L 5d %
-4.66%
Ex-date Mar 9, 2021Q1
Dividend
$0.00
Gap %
1.32%
Pre-ex close
$37.85
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-2.03%
P&L 5d %
+5.45%
Ex-date Dec 9, 2020Q4
Dividend
$0.00
Gap %
0.87%
Pre-ex close
$29.89
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-1.71%
P&L 5d %
+3.66%
Ex-date Sep 9, 2020Q3
Dividend
$0.00
Gap %
0.35%
Pre-ex close
$23.17
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-11.22%
P&L 5d %
-0.68%
Ex-date Jun 9, 2020Q2
Dividend
$0.00
Gap %
-3.87%
Pre-ex close
$23.76
High touch (td)
>30
Recovered 5d
no
Recovered 30d
no
Drawdown
-26.77%
P&L 5d %
-18.55%
Ex-date Mar 9, 2020Q1
Dividend
$0.15
Gap %
-8.78%
Pre-ex close
$20.39
High touch (td)
2
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-71.06%
P&L 5d %
-48.99%
Ex-date Dec 9, 2019Q4
Dividend
$0.13
Gap %
-0.75%
Pre-ex close
$32.17
High touch (td)
3
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-1.34%
P&L 5d %
+2.83%
Ex-date Sep 9, 2019Q3
Dividend
$0.13
Gap %
0.57%
Pre-ex close
$28.30
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-0.95%
P&L 5d %
+5.37%
Ex-date Jun 7, 2019Q2
Dividend
$0.13
Gap %
-0.60%
Pre-ex close
$26.49
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-1.36%
P&L 5d %
+4.91%
Ex-date Mar 7, 2019Q1
Dividend
$0.13
Gap %
-0.15%
Pre-ex close
$26.97
High touch (td)
5
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-3.84%
P&L 5d %
-1.45%
Ex-date Dec 7, 2018Q4
Dividend
$0.12
Gap %
-0.88%
Pre-ex close
$27.42
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-15.06%
P&L 5d %
-3.06%
Ex-date Sep 7, 2018Q3
Dividend
$0.12
Gap %
-0.96%
Pre-ex close
$27.00
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-2.56%
P&L 5d %
+2.96%
Ex-date Jun 7, 2018Q2
Dividend
$0.12
Gap %
-0.48%
Pre-ex close
$31.55
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-5.52%
P&L 5d %
-0.00%
Ex-date Mar 8, 2018Q1
Dividend
$0.12
Gap %
1.29%
Pre-ex close
$34.86
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
0.90%
P&L 5d %
+2.70%

MGM Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution

20 events analyzedHigh touched pre-ex within 5 trading days: 85% (17 events)

≤ 1 day
1470%
2–3 days
210%
4–5 days
15%
6–10 days
00%
11–30 days
15%
30+
210%

70% within 1d · 85% within 5d · 90% within 30d

MGM Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield

Pre-filled with MGM's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.

MGM dividend ($)MGM price ($)SharesHold (days)Tax %?Slippage % per leg

Slippage preset

Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.

Display

Gross dividend: $0.00
After-tax dividend: $0.00
Slippage round-trip: -$7.28
Net if price returns to pre-ex: $-7.28
Required recovery to break even: 0.10%
Per-event after-tax yield: -0.10%
Annual if all succeed: ~-5.0%

Scenariosbase rate 86%

Best (limit fills)$7.28

Average (base rate)$7.28

Worst (no recovery)$7.28

Open in full calculator →

MGM Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator

Replay every historical MGM ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.

Limit window:Quarter:

Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).

Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).

Avg P&L per trade(20 events)-2.08%

Win rate (20 trades)

85%

Cumulative P&L

-41.60%Sum of per-event % (not compounded)

Buy & hold (same sample)

+9.54%Span: Mar 8, 2018 → Dec 8, 2022 · long-horizon total return vs repeating capture cycles

Best event

Mar 9, 2020+0.74%

Worst event

Jun 9, 2022-22.62%

Cumulative P&L (equity curve)

Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.

Mar 8, 2018Dec 8, 2022

Per-event P&L distribution

20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).

<-3%

-3..-1%

-1..0%

0..1%

1..3%

>3%

Scenario P&L by event · MGM (20)

Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.

Ex-date	P&L
Mar 8, 2018	+0.34%
Jun 7, 2018	+0.38%
Sep 7, 2018	+0.44%
Dec 7, 2018	+0.44%
Mar 7, 2019	+0.48%
Jun 7, 2019	+0.49%
Sep 9, 2019	+0.46%
Dec 9, 2019	+0.40%
Mar 9, 2020	+0.74%
Jun 9, 2020	-18.55%
Sep 9, 2020	+0.01%
Dec 9, 2020	+0.01%
Mar 9, 2021	+0.01%
Jun 9, 2021	-4.66%
Sep 9, 2021	+0.00%
Dec 9, 2021	+0.00%
Mar 9, 2022	+0.01%
Jun 9, 2022	-22.62%
Sep 8, 2022	+0.01%
Dec 8, 2022	+0.01%

Looking for full price seasonality? See MGM seasonality →

Frequently asked questions

What is the dividend capture success rate for MGM?: Across the last 7 ex-dividend events for MGM Resorts (MGM), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 86% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take MGM to recover its dividend gap?: Historically, MGM touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 12 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on MGM large enough to capture?: MGM has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.00 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
How does MGM compare to its sector for dividend capture?: Within Consumer Cyclical, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. MGM sits at 86% — at or below the sector benchmark.
Why does MGM dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?: A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?: Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?: Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.