MGM dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 83% /30d touch rate over 6 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
MGM Resorts (MGM) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 83% of the last 6 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.00), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, MGM sits noticeably below the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit.
Touch rate (30d)
83%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.00
TL;DR over the most recent 6 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 83% | -12pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.00 | -0.21 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | 0.22% | +0.64pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.77% | -0.27pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 1 | — |
The company has not declared a dividend, and we don't have enough recent history to extrapolate a reliable estimate.
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for MGM Resorts (MGM). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 | $0.00 | 1.68% | $36.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.95% | -0.43% | |
| Q3 | $0.00 | -1.67% | $33.59 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.02% | +2.51% | |
| Q2 | $0.00 | -1.33% | $35.40 | >30 | no | no | -25.40% | -22.62% | |
| Q1 | $0.00 | 4.15% | $37.63 | 1 | yes | yes | 1.81% | +12.07% | |
| Q4 | $0.00 | -1.52% | $42.89 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.39% | -4.87% | |
| Q3 | $0.00 | 0.02% | $42.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.54% | -2.68% | |
| Q2 | $0.00 | -0.23% | $44.16 | 12 | no | yes | -8.29% | -4.66% | |
| Q1 | $0.00 | 1.32% | $37.85 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.03% | +5.45% | |
| Q4 | $0.00 | 0.87% | $29.89 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.71% | +3.66% | |
| Q3 | $0.00 | 0.35% | $23.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.22% | -0.68% | |
| Q2 | $0.00 | -3.87% | $23.76 | >30 | no | no | -26.77% | -18.55% | |
| Q1 | $0.15 | -8.78% | $20.39 | 2 | yes | yes | -71.06% | -48.99% | |
| Q4 | $0.13 | -0.75% | $32.17 | 3 | yes | yes | -1.34% | +2.83% | |
| Q3 | $0.13 | 0.57% | $28.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.95% | +5.37% | |
| Q2 | $0.13 | -0.60% | $26.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.36% | +4.91% | |
| Q1 | $0.13 | -0.15% | $26.97 | 5 | yes | yes | -3.82% | -1.45% | |
| Q4 | $0.12 | -0.88% | $27.42 | 1 | yes | yes | -15.06% | -3.06% | |
| Q3 | $0.12 | -0.96% | $27.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.56% | +2.96% | |
| Q2 | $0.12 | -0.48% | $31.55 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.52% | -0.00% | |
| Q1 | $0.12 | 1.29% | $34.86 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.89% | +2.70% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 14 | 70% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
Pre-filled with MGM's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical MGM ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-2.08%
Win rate (20 trades)
85%
Cumulative P&L
-41.60%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+9.54%
Best event
+0.74%
Worst event
-22.62%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · MGM (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.34% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.44% | |
| +0.44% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.46% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.74% | |
| -18.55% | |
| +0.01% | |
| +0.01% | |
| +0.01% | |
| -4.66% | |
| +0.00% | |
| +0.00% | |
| +0.01% | |
| -22.62% | |
| +0.01% | |
| +0.01% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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