Microsoft (MSFT) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.10), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, MSFT sits roughly in line with the Technology sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Aug 20, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.91.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.10-0.06 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.10 | -0.06 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.08% | +0.25pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 65% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.27% | +2.35pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 21 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
| Dividend | $0.91 |
| Per-event yield | 0.23% |
| Annualized yield | 0.96% |
| Previously paid | Feb 19, 2026 ($0.91) |
| Last record date | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 12, 2026 |
MSFT Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Microsoft (MSFT). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.91 | 0.27% | $399.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.48% | +0.76% | |
| Q4 | $0.91 | 1.15% | $487.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.56% | +1.19% | |
| Q3 | $0.83 | -0.40% | $505.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.76% | +0.94% | |
| Q2 | $0.83 | -0.48% | $452.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.93% | +0.61% | |
| Q1 | $0.83 | 0.13% | $414.77 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.14% | -5.16% | |
| Q4 | $0.83 | 0.97% | $415.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.25% | +2.12% | |
| Q3 | $0.75 | 0.71% | $416.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.29% | -0.13% | |
| Q2 | $0.75 | 0.32% | $416.56 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.17% | +3.53% | |
| Q1 | $0.75 | 0.43% | $406.32 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.24% | +1.50% | |
| Q4 | $0.75 | 0.27% | $370.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.88% | +2.25% | |
| Q3 | $0.68 | -0.33% | $321.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.20% | +1.81% | |
| Q2 | $0.68 | 0.18% | $311.74 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.32% | +0.89% | |
| Q1 | $0.68 | -1.41% | $272.17 | 21 | no | yes | -9.69% | -6.14% | |
| Q4 | $0.68 | 0.34% | $241.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.79% | +2.60% | |
| Q3 | $0.62 | -1.01% | $292.71 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.95% | -5.57% | |
| Q2 | $0.62 | -1.43% | $266.82 | 7 | no | yes | -7.64% | -1.38% | |
| Q1 | $0.62 | -0.70% | $300.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.63% | -1.75% | |
| Q4 | $0.62 | -0.17% | $339.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.35% | -0.29% | |
| Q3 | $0.56 | -0.35% | $293.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.51% | +3.24% | |
| Q2 | $0.56 | -1.55% | $243.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.84% | +3.69% |
- +0.76%
- +1.19%
- +0.94%
- +0.61%
- -5.16%
- +2.12%
- -0.13%
- +3.53%
- +1.50%
- +2.25%
- +1.81%
- +0.89%
- -6.14%
- +2.60%
- -5.57%
- -1.38%
- -1.75%
- -0.29%
- +3.24%
- +3.69%
MSFT Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 18 | 90% | |
| 2–3 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
MSFT Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with MSFT's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $182.00
- After-tax dividend
- $118.30
- Slippage round-trip
- -$79.92
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$38.38
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.05%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~2.4%
MSFT Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical MSFT ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · MSFT (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.23% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.21% | |
| -1.38% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.28% | |
| -6.14% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.23% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.