Microsoft (MSFT) Dividend Capture: 0.23% per event (0.9% annualized)
MSFT
Microsoft (MSFT) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.10), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, MSFT sits roughly in line with the Technology sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is May 21, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.91.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.10-0.06 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.10-0.06 vs sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -0.15%+0.18pp vs sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 65%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -2.27%+2.43pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 21
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
- Dividend
- $0.91
- Per-event yield
- 0.23%
- Annualized yield
- 0.87%
- Previously paid
- Feb 19, 2026 ($0.91)
- Last record date
- Feb 19, 2026
- Last payment date
- Mar 12, 2026
How MSFT ranks in Technology
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (48 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#1of 48
Beats ~98% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#1of 48
Beats ~98% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#33of 48
Beats ~31% of peers on this metric
MSFT Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Microsoft (MSFT). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.91 | 0.27% | $399.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.48% | +0.76% | |
| Q4 | $0.91 | 1.15% | $487.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.56% | +1.19% | |
| Q3 | $0.83 | -0.40% | $505.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.76% | +0.94% | |
| Q2 | $0.83 | -0.48% | $452.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.93% | +0.61% | |
| Q1 | $0.83 | 0.13% | $414.77 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.14% | -5.16% | |
| Q4 | $0.83 | 0.97% | $415.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.25% | +2.12% | |
| Q3 | $0.75 | 0.71% | $416.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.29% | -0.13% | |
| Q2 | $0.75 | 0.32% | $416.56 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.17% | +3.53% | |
| Q1 | $0.75 | 0.43% | $406.32 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.24% | +1.50% | |
| Q4 | $0.75 | 0.27% | $370.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.88% | +2.25% | |
| Q3 | $0.68 | -0.33% | $321.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.20% | +1.81% | |
| Q2 | $0.68 | 0.18% | $311.74 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.32% | +0.89% | |
| Q1 | $0.68 | -1.41% | $272.17 | 21 | no | yes | -9.69% | -6.14% | |
| Q4 | $0.68 | 0.34% | $241.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.79% | +2.60% | |
| Q3 | $0.62 | -1.01% | $292.71 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.95% | -5.57% | |
| Q2 | $0.62 | -1.43% | $266.82 | 7 | no | yes | -7.64% | -1.38% | |
| Q1 | $0.62 | -0.70% | $300.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.63% | -1.75% | |
| Q4 | $0.62 | -0.17% | $339.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.35% | -0.29% | |
| Q3 | $0.56 | -0.35% | $293.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.51% | +3.24% | |
| Q2 | $0.56 | -1.55% | $243.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.84% | +3.69% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.91
- Gap %
- 0.27%
- Pre-ex close
- $399.60
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.48%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.76%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.91
- Gap %
- 1.15%
- Pre-ex close
- $487.12
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.56%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.19%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.83
- Gap %
- -0.40%
- Pre-ex close
- $505.72
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.76%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.94%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.83
- Gap %
- -0.48%
- Pre-ex close
- $452.94
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.93%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.61%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.83
- Gap %
- 0.13%
- Pre-ex close
- $414.77
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -8.14%
- P&L 5d %
- -5.16%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.83
- Gap %
- 0.97%
- Pre-ex close
- $415.49
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.25%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.12%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.75
- Gap %
- 0.71%
- Pre-ex close
- $416.86
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.29%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.13%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.75
- Gap %
- 0.32%
- Pre-ex close
- $416.56
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- 0.17%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.53%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.75
- Gap %
- 0.43%
- Pre-ex close
- $406.32
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.24%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.50%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.75
- Gap %
- 0.27%
- Pre-ex close
- $370.27
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.88%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.25%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.68
- Gap %
- -0.33%
- Pre-ex close
- $321.86
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.20%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.81%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.68
- Gap %
- 0.18%
- Pre-ex close
- $311.74
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.32%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.89%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.68
- Gap %
- -1.41%
- Pre-ex close
- $272.17
- High touch (td)
- 21
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -9.69%
- P&L 5d %
- -6.14%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.68
- Gap %
- 0.34%
- Pre-ex close
- $241.97
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.79%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.60%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.62
- Gap %
- -1.01%
- Pre-ex close
- $292.71
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -10.95%
- P&L 5d %
- -5.57%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.62
- Gap %
- -1.43%
- Pre-ex close
- $266.82
- High touch (td)
- 7
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -7.64%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.38%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.62
- Gap %
- -0.70%
- Pre-ex close
- $300.47
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -9.63%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.75%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.62
- Gap %
- -0.17%
- Pre-ex close
- $339.51
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.35%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.29%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.56
- Gap %
- -0.35%
- Pre-ex close
- $293.08
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.51%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.24%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.56
- Gap %
- -1.55%
- Pre-ex close
- $243.08
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.84%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.69%
MSFT Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day1890%
- 2–3 days00%
- 4–5 days00%
- 6–10 days15%
- 11–30 days15%
- 30+00%
90% within 1d · 90% within 5d · 100% within 30d
MSFT Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with MSFT's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $182.00
- After-tax dividend
- $118.30
- Slippage round-trip
- -$79.92
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$38.38
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.05%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~2.4%
MSFT Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical MSFT ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · MSFT (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.23% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.21% | |
| -1.38% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.28% | |
| -6.14% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.23% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See MSFT seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for MSFT?
Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for Microsoft (MSFT), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take MSFT to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, MSFT touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 21 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on MSFT large enough to capture?
MSFT has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.10 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for MSFT?
The next ex-dividend date for Microsoft (MSFT) is May 21, 2026, confirmed (declared by the company).
How does MSFT compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Technology, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. MSFT sits at 100% — above the sector benchmark.
Why does MSFT dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.