Nasdaq (NDAQ) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.25), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, NDAQ sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 11, 2026 (±6 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.25-0.06 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.25 | -0.06 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.38% | +0.20pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 60% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.79% | +0.58pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 5 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±6 days.
| Dividend | $0.31 |
| Per-event yield | 0.36% |
| Annualized yield | 1.26% |
| Previously paid | Mar 16, 2026 ($0.27) |
| Last record date | Mar 16, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 30, 2026 |
NDAQ Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Nasdaq (NDAQ). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.27 | -0.09% | $85.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.30% | +1.33% | |
| Q4 | $0.27 | -0.30% | $90.29 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.24% | +3.93% | |
| Q3 | $0.27 | -0.15% | $95.88 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.81% | -6.30% | |
| Q2 | $0.27 | -1.06% | $86.90 | 4 | yes | yes | -2.01% | +0.12% | |
| Q1 | $0.24 | 0.65% | $72.17 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.24% | +5.02% | |
| Q4 | $0.24 | -0.62% | $81.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.87% | -1.12% | |
| Q3 | $0.24 | -0.21% | $72.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.74% | +2.70% | |
| Q2 | $0.24 | -0.73% | $59.20 | 3 | yes | yes | -1.55% | +1.93% | |
| Q1 | $0.22 | -0.05% | $59.74 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.98% | +2.28% | |
| Q4 | $0.22 | -1.41% | $55.84 | 5 | yes | yes | -3.98% | +0.88% | |
| Q3 | $0.22 | -0.02% | $51.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.30% | -3.99% | |
| Q2 | $0.22 | -0.51% | $51.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.32% | -2.54% | |
| Q1 | $0.20 | -0.85% | $51.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.56% | +1.50% | |
| Q4 | $0.20 | 0.16% | $68.46 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.98% | -5.95% | |
| Q3 | $0.20 | -0.37% | $62.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.40% | -7.14% | |
| Q2 | $0.60 | -0.43% | $51.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.32% | -2.30% | |
| Q1 | $0.54 | -1.37% | $56.22 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.61% | +5.37% | |
| Q4 | $0.54 | 0.50% | $66.34 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.49% | +3.39% | |
| Q3 | $0.54 | -0.29% | $66.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.99% | -0.70% | |
| Q2 | $0.54 | 0.27% | $56.37 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.62% | +7.27% |
- +1.33%
- +3.93%
- -6.30%
- +0.12%
- +5.02%
- -1.12%
- +2.70%
- +1.93%
- +2.28%
- +0.88%
- -3.99%
- -2.54%
- +1.50%
- -5.95%
- -7.14%
- -2.30%
- +5.37%
- +3.39%
- -0.70%
- +7.27%
NDAQ Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 16 | 80% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
NDAQ Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with NDAQ's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $62.00
- After-tax dividend
- $40.30
- Slippage round-trip
- -$17.11
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$23.19
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.14%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~6.8%
NDAQ Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical NDAQ ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · NDAQ (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.96% | |
| +0.82% | |
| +0.81% | |
| +0.96% | |
| +1.17% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.32% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.