Newmont (NEM) Dividend Capture: 0.20% per event (0.9% annualized)
NEM
Newmont (NEM) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 85% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.28), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, NEM sits noticeably below the Basic Materials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is May 27, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.26.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 85%-10pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.28+0.08 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 85%-10pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.28+0.08 vs sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -1.12%-0.74pp vs sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 55%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -3.71%+0.93pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 5
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
- Dividend
- $0.26
- Per-event yield
- 0.20%
- Annualized yield
- 0.94%
- Previously paid
- Mar 3, 2026 ($0.26)
- Last record date
- Mar 3, 2026
- Last payment date
- Mar 26, 2026
How NEM ranks in Basic Materials
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (28 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#22of 28
Beats ~21% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#1of 28
Beats ~96% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#8of 28
Beats ~71% of peers on this metric
NEM Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Newmont (NEM). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.26 | -6.49% | $128.73 | >30 | no | no | -15.91% | -7.43% | |
| Q4 | $0.25 | 1.08% | $86.27 | 1 | yes | yes | 1.04% | +5.45% | |
| Q3 | $0.25 | -1.42% | $75.42 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.63% | +5.94% | |
| Q2 | $0.25 | -2.05% | $53.65 | 5 | yes | yes | -3.45% | +3.62% | |
| Q1 | $0.25 | 0.90% | $42.36 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.02% | +3.09% | |
| Q4 | $0.25 | -0.09% | $42.25 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.04% | -2.20% | |
| Q3 | $0.25 | 1.28% | $51.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.08% | +2.95% | |
| Q2 | $0.25 | -2.12% | $41.89 | 3 | yes | yes | -4.37% | -2.36% | |
| Q1 | $0.25 | -0.69% | $31.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.85% | +11.11% | |
| Q4 | $0.40 | -1.53% | $40.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.49% | -1.18% | |
| Q3 | $0.40 | -1.29% | $38.84 | 3 | yes | yes | -1.96% | +2.11% | |
| Q2 | $0.40 | -1.06% | $40.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.11% | +4.70% | |
| Q1 | $0.40 | -0.14% | $42.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.93% | +9.44% | |
| Q4 | $0.55 | -0.25% | $47.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.97% | +1.15% | |
| Q3 | $0.55 | -1.15% | $41.71 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.94% | +4.24% | |
| Q2 | $0.55 | 0.21% | $67.85 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.86% | -0.19% | |
| Q1 | $0.55 | -4.68% | $77.61 | 2 | yes | yes | -8.63% | -5.73% | |
| Q4 | $0.55 | -1.37% | $56.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.73% | -2.86% | |
| Q3 | $0.55 | -0.91% | $58.28 | >30 | no | no | -8.17% | -0.03% | |
| Q2 | $0.55 | -0.68% | $73.95 | >30 | no | no | -7.03% | -4.61% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.26
- Gap %
- -6.49%
- Pre-ex close
- $128.73
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -15.91%
- P&L 5d %
- -7.43%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.25
- Gap %
- 1.08%
- Pre-ex close
- $86.27
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- 1.04%
- P&L 5d %
- +5.45%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.25
- Gap %
- -1.42%
- Pre-ex close
- $75.42
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.63%
- P&L 5d %
- +5.94%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.25
- Gap %
- -2.05%
- Pre-ex close
- $53.65
- High touch (td)
- 5
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.45%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.62%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.25
- Gap %
- 0.90%
- Pre-ex close
- $42.36
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.02%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.09%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.25
- Gap %
- -0.09%
- Pre-ex close
- $42.25
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.04%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.20%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.25
- Gap %
- 1.28%
- Pre-ex close
- $51.61
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.08%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.95%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.25
- Gap %
- -2.12%
- Pre-ex close
- $41.89
- High touch (td)
- 3
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.37%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.36%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.25
- Gap %
- -0.69%
- Pre-ex close
- $31.94
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.85%
- P&L 5d %
- +11.11%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.40
- Gap %
- -1.53%
- Pre-ex close
- $40.57
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -7.49%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.18%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.40
- Gap %
- -1.29%
- Pre-ex close
- $38.84
- High touch (td)
- 3
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.96%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.11%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.40
- Gap %
- -1.06%
- Pre-ex close
- $40.40
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.11%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.70%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.40
- Gap %
- -0.14%
- Pre-ex close
- $42.50
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.93%
- P&L 5d %
- +9.44%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.55
- Gap %
- -0.25%
- Pre-ex close
- $47.12
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.97%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.15%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.55
- Gap %
- -1.15%
- Pre-ex close
- $41.71
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.94%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.24%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.55
- Gap %
- 0.21%
- Pre-ex close
- $67.85
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -7.86%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.19%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.55
- Gap %
- -4.68%
- Pre-ex close
- $77.61
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -8.63%
- P&L 5d %
- -5.73%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.55
- Gap %
- -1.37%
- Pre-ex close
- $56.39
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.73%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.86%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.55
- Gap %
- -0.91%
- Pre-ex close
- $58.28
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -8.17%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.03%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.55
- Gap %
- -0.68%
- Pre-ex close
- $73.95
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -7.03%
- P&L 5d %
- -4.61%
NEM Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day1260%
- 2–3 days420%
- 4–5 days15%
- 6–10 days00%
- 11–30 days00%
- 30+315%
60% within 1d · 85% within 5d · 85% within 30d
NEM Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with NEM's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $52.00
- After-tax dividend
- $33.80
- Slippage round-trip
- -$25.75
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$8.05
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.03%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~1.6%
NEM Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical NEM ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · NEM (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -4.61% | |
| -0.03% | |
| +0.98% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.81% | |
| +1.32% | |
| +1.17% | |
| +0.94% | |
| +0.99% | |
| +1.03% | |
| +0.99% | |
| +0.78% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.47% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.29% | |
| -7.43% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See NEM seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for NEM?
Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for Newmont (NEM), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 85% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take NEM to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, NEM touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 5 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on NEM large enough to capture?
NEM has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.28 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for NEM?
The next ex-dividend date for Newmont (NEM) is May 27, 2026, confirmed (declared by the company).
How does NEM compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Basic Materials, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. NEM sits at 85% — at or below the sector benchmark.
Why does NEM dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.