Norfolk Southern (NSC) Dividend Capture: 0.44% per event (1.7% annualized)
Norfolk Southern (NSC) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.23), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, NSC sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is May 8, 2026, with an expected dividend of $1.35.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 90%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.23in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 90%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.23in line with sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -0.16%+0.18pp vs sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 65%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -1.85%+2.12pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 3
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
- Dividend
- $1.35
- Per-event yield
- 0.44%
- Annualized yield
- 1.72%
- Previously paid
- Feb 6, 2026 ($1.35)
- Last record date
- Feb 6, 2026
- Last payment date
- Feb 20, 2026
How NSC ranks in Industrials
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (87 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#67of 87
Beats ~23% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#1of 87
Beats ~99% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#30of 87
Beats ~66% of peers on this metric
NSC Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Norfolk Southern (NSC). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.35 | -1.12% | $306.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.60% | +3.06% | |
| Q4 | $1.35 | -0.38% | $282.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.71% | +1.14% | |
| Q3 | $1.35 | -1.14% | $278.00 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.76% | +1.22% | |
| Q2 | $1.35 | 0.88% | $221.77 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.68% | +1.39% | |
| Q1 | $1.35 | -0.10% | $251.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.01% | +2.33% | |
| Q4 | $1.35 | 0.36% | $250.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.70% | +9.02% | |
| Q3 | $1.35 | -0.83% | $246.46 | 3 | yes | yes | -4.88% | -2.23% | |
| Q2 | $1.35 | 0.09% | $230.58 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.60% | -1.26% | |
| Q1 | $1.35 | 6.41% | $235.24 | 1 | yes | yes | 5.10% | +8.57% | |
| Q4 | $1.35 | 0.23% | $190.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.09% | +2.61% | |
| Q3 | $1.35 | -0.86% | $230.22 | >30 | no | no | -10.09% | -4.94% | |
| Q2 | $1.35 | -1.11% | $202.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.72% | +4.28% | |
| Q1 | $1.35 | -0.33% | $248.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.98% | -3.40% | |
| Q4 | $1.24 | -1.66% | $225.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.94% | +8.35% | |
| Q3 | $1.24 | -1.10% | $250.93 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.26% | +4.84% | |
| Q2 | $1.24 | -1.39% | $264.67 | >30 | no | no | -10.39% | -6.56% | |
| Q1 | $1.24 | -1.10% | $280.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.22% | -2.32% | |
| Q4 | $1.09 | -0.14% | $287.62 | 2 | yes | yes | -5.22% | -3.69% | |
| Q3 | $1.09 | 0.01% | $254.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.17% | +6.11% | |
| Q2 | $0.99 | 0.00% | $287.01 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.47% | +0.34% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.35
- Gap %
- -1.12%
- Pre-ex close
- $306.91
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.60%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.06%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.35
- Gap %
- -0.38%
- Pre-ex close
- $282.10
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.71%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.14%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.35
- Gap %
- -1.14%
- Pre-ex close
- $278.00
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.76%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.22%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.35
- Gap %
- 0.88%
- Pre-ex close
- $221.77
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.68%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.39%
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.35
- Gap %
- -0.10%
- Pre-ex close
- $251.48
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.01%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.33%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.35
- Gap %
- 0.36%
- Pre-ex close
- $250.43
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.70%
- P&L 5d %
- +9.02%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.35
- Gap %
- -0.83%
- Pre-ex close
- $246.46
- High touch (td)
- 3
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.88%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.23%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.35
- Gap %
- 0.09%
- Pre-ex close
- $230.58
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.60%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.26%
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.35
- Gap %
- 6.41%
- Pre-ex close
- $235.24
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- 5.10%
- P&L 5d %
- +8.57%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.35
- Gap %
- 0.23%
- Pre-ex close
- $190.19
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.09%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.61%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.35
- Gap %
- -0.86%
- Pre-ex close
- $230.22
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -10.09%
- P&L 5d %
- -4.94%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.35
- Gap %
- -1.11%
- Pre-ex close
- $202.98
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.72%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.28%
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.35
- Gap %
- -0.33%
- Pre-ex close
- $248.79
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -7.98%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.40%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.24
- Gap %
- -1.66%
- Pre-ex close
- $225.40
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.94%
- P&L 5d %
- +8.35%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.24
- Gap %
- -1.10%
- Pre-ex close
- $250.93
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.26%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.84%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.24
- Gap %
- -1.39%
- Pre-ex close
- $264.67
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -10.39%
- P&L 5d %
- -6.56%
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.24
- Gap %
- -1.10%
- Pre-ex close
- $280.08
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.22%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.32%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.09
- Gap %
- -0.14%
- Pre-ex close
- $287.62
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.22%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.69%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.09
- Gap %
- 0.01%
- Pre-ex close
- $254.47
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.17%
- P&L 5d %
- +6.11%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.99
- Gap %
- 0.00%
- Pre-ex close
- $287.01
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.47%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.34%
NSC Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day1575%
- 2–3 days315%
- 4–5 days00%
- 6–10 days00%
- 11–30 days00%
- 30+210%
75% within 1d · 90% within 5d · 90% within 30d
NSC Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with NSC's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $270.00
- After-tax dividend
- $175.50
- Slippage round-trip
- -$61.38
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$114.12
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.19%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~9.4%
NSC Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical NSC ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · NSC (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.34% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.44% | |
| -6.56% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +0.67% | |
| -4.94% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.44% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See NSC seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for NSC?
Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for Norfolk Southern (NSC), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take NSC to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, NSC touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 3 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on NSC large enough to capture?
NSC has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.23 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for NSC?
The next ex-dividend date for Norfolk Southern (NSC) is May 8, 2026, confirmed (declared by the company).
How does NSC compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Industrials, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. NSC sits at 90% — at or below the sector benchmark.
Why does NSC dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.