Norfolk Southern (NSC) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 89% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.23), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, NSC sits noticeably below the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 7, 2026 (±4 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 89%-6pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.23in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 89% | -6pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.23 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.17% | +0.18pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 65% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -1.85% | +2.18pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 3 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±4 days.
| Dividend | $1.35 |
| Per-event yield | 0.44% |
| Annualized yield | 1.73% |
| Previously paid | Feb 6, 2026 ($1.35) |
| Last record date | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Feb 20, 2026 |
NSC Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Norfolk Southern (NSC). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.35 | -1.12% | $306.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.60% | +3.06% | |
| Q4 | $1.35 | -0.38% | $282.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.71% | +1.14% | |
| Q3 | $1.35 | -1.14% | $278.00 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.76% | +1.22% | |
| Q2 | $1.35 | 0.88% | $221.77 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.68% | +1.39% | |
| Q1 | $1.35 | -0.10% | $251.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.01% | +2.33% | |
| Q4 | $1.35 | 0.36% | $250.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.70% | +9.02% | |
| Q3 | $1.35 | -0.83% | $246.46 | 3 | yes | yes | -4.88% | -2.23% | |
| Q2 | $1.35 | 0.09% | $230.58 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.60% | -1.26% | |
| Q1 | $1.35 | 6.41% | $235.24 | 1 | yes | yes | 5.10% | +8.57% | |
| Q4 | $1.35 | 0.23% | $190.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.09% | +2.61% | |
| Q3 | $1.35 | -0.86% | $230.22 | >30 | no | no | -10.09% | -4.94% | |
| Q2 | $1.35 | -1.11% | $202.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.72% | +4.28% | |
| Q1 | $1.35 | -0.33% | $248.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.98% | -3.40% | |
| Q4 | $1.24 | -1.66% | $225.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.94% | +8.35% | |
| Q3 | $1.24 | -1.10% | $250.93 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.26% | +4.84% | |
| Q2 | $1.24 | -1.39% | $264.67 | >30 | no | no | -10.39% | -6.56% | |
| Q1 | $1.24 | -1.10% | $280.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.22% | -2.32% | |
| Q4 | $1.09 | -0.14% | $287.62 | 2 | yes | yes | -5.22% | -3.69% | |
| Q3 | $1.09 | 0.01% | $254.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.17% | +6.11% | |
| Q2 | $0.99 | 0.00% | $287.01 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.47% | +0.34% |
- +3.06%
- +1.14%
- +1.22%
- +1.39%
- +2.33%
- +9.02%
- -2.23%
- -1.26%
- +8.57%
- +2.61%
- -4.94%
- +4.28%
- -3.40%
- +8.35%
- +4.84%
- -6.56%
- -2.32%
- -3.69%
- +6.11%
- +0.34%
NSC Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 15 | 75% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
NSC Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with NSC's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $270.00
- After-tax dividend
- $175.50
- Slippage round-trip
- -$61.38
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$114.12
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.19%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~9.4%
NSC Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical NSC ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · NSC (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.34% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.44% | |
| -6.56% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +0.67% | |
| -4.94% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.44% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.