What is the dividend capture success rate for NVO?

Across the last 10 ex-dividend events for Novo Nordisk (NVO), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.

How long does it take NVO to recover its dividend gap?

Historically, NVO touches its pre-ex close in a median of 2 trading days, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 7 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.

Is the dividend on NVO large enough to capture?

NVO has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.47 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.

How does NVO compare to its sector for dividend capture?

Within Healthcare, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 100%. NVO sits at 100% — at or below the sector benchmark.

Why does NVO dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?

A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".

How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?

Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.

What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?

Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.

Novo Nordisk (NVO) Dividend Capture: 3.54% per event (5.3% annualized)

Updated May 6, 202610 eventsmedium

Novo Nordisk

NVO

Novo Nordisk (NVO) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 10 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.47), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.

Versus its sector, NVO sits roughly in line with the Healthcare sector benchmark of 100%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.

Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit.

Touch rate (30d): 100%in line with sector
Median days-to-touch: 2d+1.0d vs sector
Signal-to-noise: 0.47+0.32 vs sector

Recovery engine

TL;DR over the most recent 10 events.

30-day touch rate: 100%
in line with sector
Median days-to-touch: 2d
+1.0d vs sector
Signal-to-noise (div / ATR): 0.47
+0.32 vs sector
Avg gap on ex-date: -0.61%
-0.28pp vs sector
Win rate at MOC exit: 80%
Median drawdown during hold: -2.46%
+1.92pp vs sector
Best / worst touch (days): 1 / 7

Next ex-dividend

The company has not declared a dividend, and we don't have enough recent history to extrapolate a reliable estimate.

How NVO ranks in Healthcare

Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (40 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.

Full sector ranking

30-day touch rate
#1of 40
Beats ~98% of peers on this metric
Median days to touch
#36of 40
Beats ~10% of peers on this metric
Signal-to-noise
#6of 40
Beats ~85% of peers on this metric

NVO Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events

Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Novo Nordisk (NVO). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.

						Recovered 5d	Recovered 30d
Mar 30, 2026	Q1	$1.28	-2.53%	$36.04	2	yes	yes	-2.55%	+5.95%
Aug 18, 2025	Q3	$0.58	4.18%	$52.41	1	yes	yes	2.56%	+8.61%
Mar 31, 2025	Q1	$0.82	-2.28%	$69.30	1	yes	yes	-14.40%	-6.99%
Aug 16, 2024	Q3	$0.36	-1.58%	$137.57	5	yes	yes	-3.05%	-0.17%
Mar 22, 2024	Q1	$0.66	-0.47%	$129.83	2	yes	yes	-4.67%	-1.25%
Aug 18, 2023	Q3	$0.88	-1.07%	$92.36	2	yes	yes	-1.76%	+1.88%
Mar 24, 2023	Q1	$1.18	0.27%	$74.79	1	yes	yes	-0.28%	+7.97%
Aug 12, 2022	Q3	$0.58	-1.25%	$54.40	7	no	yes	-6.18%	-2.84%
Mar 25, 2022	Q1	$1.02	-1.25%	$54.49	3	yes	yes	-2.88%	+5.49%
Aug 16, 2021	Q3	$0.55	-0.16%	$51.38	1	yes	yes	-1.01%	+4.17%
Mar 26, 2021	Q1	$0.92	-0.65%	$33.73	1	yes	yes	-1.27%	+4.04%
Aug 14, 2020	Q3	$0.52	-1.38%	$33.43	2	yes	yes	-1.94%	+0.74%
Mar 27, 2020	Q1	$0.78	-2.36%	$28.38	1	yes	yes	-3.07%	+8.18%
Aug 16, 2019	Q3	$0.45	1.10%	$25.37	1	yes	yes	0.55%	+4.81%
Mar 22, 2019	Q1	$0.78	-2.68%	$26.09	3	yes	yes	-3.33%	+3.25%
Aug 17, 2018	Q3	$0.46	-0.88%	$23.89	2	yes	yes	-0.88%	+4.95%
Mar 23, 2018	Q1	$0.81	-0.65%	$24.61	1	yes	yes	-2.23%	+1.65%
Aug 17, 2017	Q3	$0.47	-2.07%	$23.21	8	no	yes	-2.89%	+0.32%
Mar 23, 2017	Q1	$0.67	-2.01%	$16.95	3	yes	yes	-2.36%	+3.66%
Aug 11, 2016	Q3	$0.45	-1.48%	$23.64	5	yes	yes	-3.13%	+1.41%

Ex-date Mar 30, 2026Q1
Dividend
$1.28
Gap %
-2.53%
Pre-ex close
$36.04
High touch (td)
2
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-2.55%
P&L 5d %
+5.95%
Ex-date Aug 18, 2025Q3
Dividend
$0.58
Gap %
4.18%
Pre-ex close
$52.41
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
2.56%
P&L 5d %
+8.61%
Ex-date Mar 31, 2025Q1
Dividend
$0.82
Gap %
-2.28%
Pre-ex close
$69.30
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-14.40%
P&L 5d %
-6.99%
Ex-date Aug 16, 2024Q3
Dividend
$0.36
Gap %
-1.58%
Pre-ex close
$137.57
High touch (td)
5
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-3.05%
P&L 5d %
-0.17%
Ex-date Mar 22, 2024Q1
Dividend
$0.66
Gap %
-0.47%
Pre-ex close
$129.83
High touch (td)
2
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-4.67%
P&L 5d %
-1.25%
Ex-date Aug 18, 2023Q3
Dividend
$0.88
Gap %
-1.07%
Pre-ex close
$92.36
High touch (td)
2
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-1.76%
P&L 5d %
+1.88%
Ex-date Mar 24, 2023Q1
Dividend
$1.18
Gap %
0.27%
Pre-ex close
$74.79
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-0.28%
P&L 5d %
+7.97%
Ex-date Aug 12, 2022Q3
Dividend
$0.58
Gap %
-1.25%
Pre-ex close
$54.40
High touch (td)
7
Recovered 5d
no
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-6.18%
P&L 5d %
-2.84%
Ex-date Mar 25, 2022Q1
Dividend
$1.02
Gap %
-1.25%
Pre-ex close
$54.49
High touch (td)
3
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-2.88%
P&L 5d %
+5.49%
Ex-date Aug 16, 2021Q3
Dividend
$0.55
Gap %
-0.16%
Pre-ex close
$51.38
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-1.01%
P&L 5d %
+4.17%
Ex-date Mar 26, 2021Q1
Dividend
$0.92
Gap %
-0.65%
Pre-ex close
$33.73
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-1.27%
P&L 5d %
+4.04%
Ex-date Aug 14, 2020Q3
Dividend
$0.52
Gap %
-1.38%
Pre-ex close
$33.43
High touch (td)
2
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-1.94%
P&L 5d %
+0.74%
Ex-date Mar 27, 2020Q1
Dividend
$0.78
Gap %
-2.36%
Pre-ex close
$28.38
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-3.07%
P&L 5d %
+8.18%
Ex-date Aug 16, 2019Q3
Dividend
$0.45
Gap %
1.10%
Pre-ex close
$25.37
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
0.55%
P&L 5d %
+4.81%
Ex-date Mar 22, 2019Q1
Dividend
$0.78
Gap %
-2.68%
Pre-ex close
$26.09
High touch (td)
3
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-3.33%
P&L 5d %
+3.25%
Ex-date Aug 17, 2018Q3
Dividend
$0.46
Gap %
-0.88%
Pre-ex close
$23.89
High touch (td)
2
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-0.88%
P&L 5d %
+4.95%
Ex-date Mar 23, 2018Q1
Dividend
$0.81
Gap %
-0.65%
Pre-ex close
$24.61
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-2.23%
P&L 5d %
+1.65%
Ex-date Aug 17, 2017Q3
Dividend
$0.47
Gap %
-2.07%
Pre-ex close
$23.21
High touch (td)
8
Recovered 5d
no
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-2.89%
P&L 5d %
+0.32%
Ex-date Mar 23, 2017Q1
Dividend
$0.67
Gap %
-2.01%
Pre-ex close
$16.95
High touch (td)
3
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-2.36%
P&L 5d %
+3.66%
Ex-date Aug 11, 2016Q3
Dividend
$0.45
Gap %
-1.48%
Pre-ex close
$23.64
High touch (td)
5
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-3.13%
P&L 5d %
+1.41%

NVO Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution

20 events analyzedHigh touched pre-ex within 5 trading days: 90% (18 events)

≤ 1 day
840%
2–3 days
840%
4–5 days
210%
6–10 days
210%
11–30 days
00%
30+
00%

40% within 1d · 90% within 5d · 100% within 30d

NVO Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield

Pre-filled with NVO's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.

NVO dividend ($)NVO price ($)SharesHold (days)Tax %?Slippage % per leg

Slippage preset

Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.

Display

Gross dividend: $256.00
After-tax dividend: $166.40
Slippage round-trip: -$7.21
Net if price returns to pre-ex: +$159.19
Required recovery to break even: 0.00%
Per-event after-tax yield: +2.21%
Annual if all succeed: ~111.3%

Scenariosbase rate 100%

Best (limit fills)+$159.19

Average (base rate)+$159.19

Worst (no recovery)$96.81

Open in full calculator →

NVO Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator

Replay every historical NVO ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.

Limit window:Quarter:

Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).

Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).

Avg P&L per trade(20 events)+1.62%

Win rate (20 trades)

95%

Cumulative P&L

+32.44%Sum of per-event % (not compounded)

Buy & hold (same sample)

+109.46%Span: Aug 11, 2016 → Mar 30, 2026 · long-horizon total return vs repeating capture cycles

Best event

Mar 23, 2017+3.95%

Worst event

Aug 12, 2022-2.84%

Cumulative P&L (equity curve)

Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.

Aug 11, 2016Mar 30, 2026

Per-event P&L distribution

20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).

<-3%

-3..-1%

-1..0%

0..1%

1..3%

>3%

Scenario P&L by event · NVO (20)

Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.

Ex-date	P&L
Aug 11, 2016	+1.92%
Mar 23, 2017	+3.95%
Aug 17, 2017	+0.32%
Mar 23, 2018	+3.28%
Aug 17, 2018	+1.94%
Mar 22, 2019	+2.98%
Aug 16, 2019	+1.77%
Mar 27, 2020	+2.76%
Aug 14, 2020	+1.55%
Mar 26, 2021	+2.73%
Aug 16, 2021	+1.07%
Mar 25, 2022	+1.88%
Aug 12, 2022	-2.84%
Mar 24, 2023	+1.58%
Aug 18, 2023	+0.95%
Mar 22, 2024	+0.51%
Aug 16, 2024	+0.26%
Mar 31, 2025	+1.18%
Aug 18, 2025	+1.11%
Mar 30, 2026	+3.54%

Looking for full price seasonality? See NVO seasonality →

Frequently asked questions

What is the dividend capture success rate for NVO?: Across the last 10 ex-dividend events for Novo Nordisk (NVO), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take NVO to recover its dividend gap?: Historically, NVO touches its pre-ex close in a median of 2 trading days, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 7 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on NVO large enough to capture?: NVO has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.47 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
How does NVO compare to its sector for dividend capture?: Within Healthcare, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 100%. NVO sits at 100% — at or below the sector benchmark.
Why does NVO dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?: A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?: Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?: Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.