NVO dividend capture — median 2d pre-ex touch, 100% /30d touch rate over 10 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Novo Nordisk (NVO) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 10 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.49), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, NVO sits roughly in line with the Healthcare sector benchmark of 100%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 28, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
100%
Median days-to-touch
2d
Signal-to-noise
0.49
TL;DR over the most recent 10 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 2d | +1.0d vs sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.49 | +0.33 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.61% | -0.28pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 80% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.46% | +1.85pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 7 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
Dividend
$1.22
Per-event yield
3.38%
Annualized yield
5.11%
Previously paid
Mar 30, 2026 ($1.22)
Last record date
Mar 30, 2026
Last payment date
Apr 8, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Novo Nordisk (NVO). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.22 | -2.53% | $36.04 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.55% | +5.79% | |
| Q3 | $0.58 | 4.18% | $52.41 | 1 | yes | yes | 2.56% | +8.61% | |
| Q1 | $1.14 | -2.28% | $69.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -14.40% | -6.52% | |
| Q3 | $0.52 | -1.58% | $137.57 | 5 | yes | yes | -3.05% | -0.06% | |
| Q1 | $0.93 | -0.47% | $129.83 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.67% | -1.04% | |
| Q3 | $0.88 | -1.07% | $92.36 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.76% | +1.88% | |
| Q1 | $1.18 | 0.27% | $74.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.28% | +7.97% | |
| Q3 | $0.58 | -1.25% | $54.40 | 7 | no | yes | -6.18% | -2.84% | |
| Q1 | $1.02 | -1.25% | $54.49 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.88% | +5.49% | |
| Q3 | $0.55 | -0.16% | $51.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.01% | +4.17% | |
| Q1 | $0.92 | -0.65% | $33.73 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.27% | +4.04% | |
| Q3 | $0.52 | -1.38% | $33.43 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.94% | +0.74% | |
| Q1 | $0.78 | -2.36% | $28.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.07% | +8.18% | |
| Q3 | $0.45 | 1.10% | $25.37 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.55% | +4.81% | |
| Q1 | $0.78 | -2.68% | $26.09 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.33% | +3.25% | |
| Q3 | $0.46 | -0.88% | $23.89 | 2 | yes | yes | -0.88% | +4.95% | |
| Q1 | $0.81 | -0.65% | $24.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.23% | +1.65% | |
| Q3 | $0.47 | -2.07% | $23.21 | 8 | no | yes | -2.89% | +0.32% | |
| Q1 | $0.67 | -2.01% | $16.95 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.36% | +3.66% | |
| Q3 | $0.45 | -1.48% | $23.64 | 5 | yes | yes | -3.13% | +1.41% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 8 | 40% | |
| 2–3 days | 8 | 40% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
Pre-filled with NVO's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical NVO ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+1.65%
Win rate (20 trades)
95%
Cumulative P&L
+33.06%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+112.36%
Best event
+3.95%
Worst event
-2.84%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · NVO (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +1.92% | |
| +3.95% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +3.28% | |
| +1.94% | |
| +2.98% | |
| +1.77% | |
| +2.76% | |
| +1.55% | |
| +2.73% | |
| +1.07% | |
| +1.88% | |
| -2.84% | |
| +1.58% | |
| +0.95% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +1.65% | |
| +1.11% | |
| +3.38% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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