Paychex (PAYX) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 89% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.37), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, PAYX sits noticeably below the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 12, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 89%-6pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.37+0.19 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 89% | -6pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.37 | +0.19 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.53% | -0.17pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 65% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.07% | +1.96pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 8 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
| Dividend | $1.19 |
| Per-event yield | 1.13% |
| Annualized yield | 4.93% |
| Previously paid | Jan 28, 2026 ($1.08) |
| Last record date | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Feb 27, 2026 |
PAYX Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Paychex (PAYX). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.08 | -2.06% | $104.94 | >30 | no | no | -9.57% | -5.13% | |
| Q4 | $1.08 | -0.27% | $112.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.27% | +0.32% | |
| Q3 | $1.08 | -0.75% | $143.46 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.55% | +2.70% | |
| Q2 | $1.08 | 1.07% | $151.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.44% | +5.02% | |
| Q1 | $0.98 | -0.57% | $150.01 | 8 | no | yes | -3.96% | -1.19% | |
| Q4 | $0.98 | -0.83% | $148.59 | 2 | yes | yes | -5.98% | -1.19% | |
| Q3 | $0.98 | -0.45% | $123.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.93% | +2.91% | |
| Q2 | $0.98 | -0.61% | $121.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.91% | +4.11% | |
| Q1 | $0.89 | -0.74% | $123.03 | 4 | yes | yes | -2.17% | +1.91% | |
| Q4 | $0.89 | -1.10% | $115.43 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.35% | +3.66% | |
| Q3 | $0.89 | -0.86% | $123.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.66% | -0.41% | |
| Q2 | $0.89 | 0.44% | $107.25 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.27% | +0.89% | |
| Q1 | $0.79 | -1.57% | $117.87 | >30 | no | no | -6.20% | -1.57% | |
| Q4 | $0.79 | -0.16% | $115.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.53% | +6.14% | |
| Q3 | $0.79 | 1.61% | $130.90 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.70% | +6.50% | |
| Q2 | $0.79 | -1.71% | $120.13 | 3 | yes | yes | -5.02% | -1.58% | |
| Q1 | $0.66 | -0.53% | $111.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.55% | +8.04% | |
| Q4 | $0.66 | -0.12% | $123.36 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.97% | +1.56% | |
| Q3 | $0.66 | -0.84% | $113.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.18% | +2.15% | |
| Q2 | $0.66 | -1.12% | $100.44 | 4 | yes | yes | -4.30% | -0.68% |
- -5.13%
- +0.32%
- +2.70%
- +5.02%
- -1.19%
- -1.19%
- +2.91%
- +4.11%
- +1.91%
- +3.66%
- -0.41%
- +0.89%
- -1.57%
- +6.14%
- +6.50%
- -1.58%
- +8.04%
- +1.56%
- +2.15%
- -0.68%
PAYX Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 12 | 60% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
PAYX Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with PAYX's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $238.00
- After-tax dividend
- $154.70
- Slippage round-trip
- -$20.99
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$133.71
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.64%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~32.1%
PAYX Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical PAYX ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · PAYX (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.66% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.68% | |
| -1.57% | |
| +0.83% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.77% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.81% | |
| +0.80% | |
| +0.66% | |
| -1.19% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.75% | |
| +0.96% | |
| -5.13% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.