Paychex (PAYX) Dividend Capture: 1.13% per event (4.8% annualized)
PAYX
Paychex (PAYX) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.37), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, PAYX sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is May 13, 2026, with an expected dividend of $1.19.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 90%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.37+0.19 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 90%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.37+0.19 vs sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -0.56%-0.21pp vs sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 65%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -2.07%+1.90pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 8
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
- Dividend
- $1.19
- Per-event yield
- 1.13%
- Annualized yield
- 4.77%
- Previously paid
- Jan 28, 2026 ($1.08)
- Last record date
- Jan 28, 2026
- Last payment date
- Feb 27, 2026
How PAYX ranks in Industrials
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (87 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#67of 87
Beats ~23% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#1of 87
Beats ~99% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#9of 87
Beats ~90% of peers on this metric
PAYX Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Paychex (PAYX). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.08 | -2.06% | $104.94 | >30 | no | no | -9.57% | -5.13% | |
| Q4 | $1.08 | -0.27% | $112.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.27% | +0.32% | |
| Q3 | $1.08 | -0.75% | $143.46 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.55% | +2.70% | |
| Q2 | $1.08 | 1.07% | $151.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.44% | +5.02% | |
| Q1 | $0.98 | -0.57% | $150.01 | 8 | no | yes | -3.96% | -1.19% | |
| Q4 | $0.98 | -0.83% | $148.59 | 2 | yes | yes | -5.98% | -1.19% | |
| Q3 | $0.98 | -0.45% | $123.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.93% | +2.91% | |
| Q2 | $0.98 | -0.61% | $121.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.91% | +4.11% | |
| Q1 | $0.89 | -0.74% | $123.03 | 4 | yes | yes | -2.17% | +1.91% | |
| Q4 | $0.89 | -1.10% | $115.43 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.35% | +3.66% | |
| Q3 | $0.89 | -0.86% | $123.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.66% | -0.41% | |
| Q2 | $0.89 | 0.44% | $107.25 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.27% | +0.89% | |
| Q1 | $0.79 | -1.57% | $117.87 | >30 | no | no | -6.20% | -1.57% | |
| Q4 | $0.79 | -0.16% | $115.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.53% | +6.14% | |
| Q3 | $0.79 | 1.61% | $130.90 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.70% | +6.50% | |
| Q2 | $0.79 | -1.71% | $120.13 | 3 | yes | yes | -5.02% | -1.58% | |
| Q1 | $0.66 | -0.53% | $111.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.55% | +8.04% | |
| Q4 | $0.66 | -0.12% | $123.36 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.97% | +1.56% | |
| Q3 | $0.66 | -0.84% | $113.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.18% | +2.15% | |
| Q2 | $0.66 | -1.12% | $100.44 | 4 | yes | yes | -4.30% | -0.68% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.08
- Gap %
- -2.06%
- Pre-ex close
- $104.94
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -9.57%
- P&L 5d %
- -5.13%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.08
- Gap %
- -0.27%
- Pre-ex close
- $112.82
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.27%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.32%
Q3
- Dividend
- $1.08
- Gap %
- -0.75%
- Pre-ex close
- $143.46
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.55%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.70%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.08
- Gap %
- 1.07%
- Pre-ex close
- $151.65
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.44%
- P&L 5d %
- +5.02%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.98
- Gap %
- -0.57%
- Pre-ex close
- $150.01
- High touch (td)
- 8
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.96%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.19%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.98
- Gap %
- -0.83%
- Pre-ex close
- $148.59
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.98%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.19%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.98
- Gap %
- -0.45%
- Pre-ex close
- $123.22
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.93%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.91%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.98
- Gap %
- -0.61%
- Pre-ex close
- $121.19
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.91%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.11%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.89
- Gap %
- -0.74%
- Pre-ex close
- $123.03
- High touch (td)
- 4
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.17%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.91%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.89
- Gap %
- -1.10%
- Pre-ex close
- $115.43
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.35%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.66%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.89
- Gap %
- -0.86%
- Pre-ex close
- $123.90
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.66%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.41%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.89
- Gap %
- 0.44%
- Pre-ex close
- $107.25
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.27%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.89%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.79
- Gap %
- -1.57%
- Pre-ex close
- $117.87
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -6.20%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.57%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.79
- Gap %
- -0.16%
- Pre-ex close
- $115.38
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.53%
- P&L 5d %
- +6.14%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.79
- Gap %
- 1.61%
- Pre-ex close
- $130.90
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- 0.70%
- P&L 5d %
- +6.50%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.79
- Gap %
- -1.71%
- Pre-ex close
- $120.13
- High touch (td)
- 3
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.02%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.58%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.66
- Gap %
- -0.53%
- Pre-ex close
- $111.60
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.55%
- P&L 5d %
- +8.04%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.66
- Gap %
- -0.12%
- Pre-ex close
- $123.36
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.97%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.56%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.66
- Gap %
- -0.84%
- Pre-ex close
- $113.63
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.18%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.15%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.66
- Gap %
- -1.12%
- Pre-ex close
- $100.44
- High touch (td)
- 4
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.30%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.68%
PAYX Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day1260%
- 2–3 days315%
- 4–5 days210%
- 6–10 days15%
- 11–30 days00%
- 30+210%
60% within 1d · 85% within 5d · 90% within 30d
PAYX Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with PAYX's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $238.00
- After-tax dividend
- $154.70
- Slippage round-trip
- -$20.99
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$133.71
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.64%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~32.1%
PAYX Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical PAYX ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · PAYX (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.66% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.68% | |
| -1.57% | |
| +0.83% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.77% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.81% | |
| +0.80% | |
| +0.66% | |
| -1.19% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.75% | |
| +0.96% | |
| -5.13% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See PAYX seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for PAYX?
Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for Paychex (PAYX), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take PAYX to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, PAYX touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 8 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on PAYX large enough to capture?
PAYX has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.37 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for PAYX?
The next ex-dividend date for Paychex (PAYX) is May 13, 2026, confirmed (declared by the company).
How does PAYX compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Industrials, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. PAYX sits at 90% — at or below the sector benchmark.
Why does PAYX dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.