PACCAR (PCAR) Dividend Capture: 0.28% per event (2.4% annualized)
PCAR
PACCAR (PCAR) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.42), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, PCAR sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is May 13, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.35.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.42+0.23 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.42+0.23 vs sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -0.58%-0.23pp vs sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 55%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -3.62%+0.35pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 20
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
- Dividend
- $0.35
- Per-event yield
- 0.28%
- Annualized yield
- 2.42%
- Previously paid
- Feb 11, 2026 ($0.33)
- Last record date
- Feb 11, 2026
- Last payment date
- Mar 4, 2026
How PCAR ranks in Industrials
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (87 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#1of 87
Beats ~99% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#1of 87
Beats ~99% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#8of 87
Beats ~91% of peers on this metric
PCAR Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for PACCAR (PCAR). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.33 | -0.27% | $127.07 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.56% | -1.45% | |
| Q4 | $1.40 | -0.50% | $111.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.24% | +1.20% | |
| Q4 | $0.33 | -0.20% | $98.02 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.24% | -1.22% | |
| Q3 | $0.33 | -0.90% | $100.66 | 7 | no | yes | -3.93% | -2.77% | |
| Q2 | $0.33 | -0.82% | $96.26 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.17% | -1.66% | |
| Q1 | $0.33 | -1.64% | $106.09 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.79% | +0.66% | |
| Q4 | $3.00 | -2.55% | $107.51 | 10 | no | yes | -4.53% | -0.84% | |
| Q3 | $0.30 | 0.09% | $93.69 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.04% | +2.02% | |
| Q2 | $0.30 | 0.14% | $106.85 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.93% | -0.89% | |
| Q1 | $0.27 | 0.16% | $105.19 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.16% | +5.32% | |
| Q4 | $3.20 | -3.06% | $98.06 | 9 | no | yes | -3.46% | +2.08% | |
| Q4 | $0.27 | 1.35% | $87.96 | 1 | yes | yes | 1.15% | +4.25% | |
| Q3 | $0.27 | -0.28% | $85.07 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.24% | +1.00% | |
| Q2 | $0.25 | -0.62% | $72.80 | 4 | yes | yes | -4.12% | -1.59% | |
| Q1 | $0.25 | -0.51% | $72.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.33% | +1.53% | |
| Q4 | $2.80 | -2.71% | $68.51 | 20 | no | yes | -6.10% | +1.23% | |
| Q4 | $0.37 | -0.29% | $68.41 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.93% | +2.24% | |
| Q3 | $0.34 | -0.53% | $62.83 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.83% | -3.29% | |
| Q2 | $0.34 | 1.55% | $56.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.40% | +0.30% | |
| Q1 | $0.34 | 0.00% | $63.02 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.71% | -1.09% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.33
- Gap %
- -0.27%
- Pre-ex close
- $127.07
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.56%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.45%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.40
- Gap %
- -0.50%
- Pre-ex close
- $111.50
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.24%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.20%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.33
- Gap %
- -0.20%
- Pre-ex close
- $98.02
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.24%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.22%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.33
- Gap %
- -0.90%
- Pre-ex close
- $100.66
- High touch (td)
- 7
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.93%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.77%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.33
- Gap %
- -0.82%
- Pre-ex close
- $96.26
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.17%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.66%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.33
- Gap %
- -1.64%
- Pre-ex close
- $106.09
- High touch (td)
- 3
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.79%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.66%
Q4
- Dividend
- $3.00
- Gap %
- -2.55%
- Pre-ex close
- $107.51
- High touch (td)
- 10
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.53%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.84%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.30
- Gap %
- 0.09%
- Pre-ex close
- $93.69
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- 0.04%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.02%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.30
- Gap %
- 0.14%
- Pre-ex close
- $106.85
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.93%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.89%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.27
- Gap %
- 0.16%
- Pre-ex close
- $105.19
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- 0.16%
- P&L 5d %
- +5.32%
Q4
- Dividend
- $3.20
- Gap %
- -3.06%
- Pre-ex close
- $98.06
- High touch (td)
- 9
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.46%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.08%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.27
- Gap %
- 1.35%
- Pre-ex close
- $87.96
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- 1.15%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.25%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.27
- Gap %
- -0.28%
- Pre-ex close
- $85.07
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.24%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.00%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.25
- Gap %
- -0.62%
- Pre-ex close
- $72.80
- High touch (td)
- 4
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.12%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.59%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.25
- Gap %
- -0.51%
- Pre-ex close
- $72.99
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.33%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.53%
Q4
- Dividend
- $2.80
- Gap %
- -2.71%
- Pre-ex close
- $68.51
- High touch (td)
- 20
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.10%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.23%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.37
- Gap %
- -0.29%
- Pre-ex close
- $68.41
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.93%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.24%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.34
- Gap %
- -0.53%
- Pre-ex close
- $62.83
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.83%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.29%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.34
- Gap %
- 1.55%
- Pre-ex close
- $56.90
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -8.40%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.30%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.34
- Gap %
- 0.00%
- Pre-ex close
- $63.02
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.71%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.09%
PCAR Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day1365%
- 2–3 days210%
- 4–5 days15%
- 6–10 days315%
- 11–30 days15%
- 30+00%
65% within 1d · 80% within 5d · 100% within 30d
PCAR Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with PCAR's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $70.00
- After-tax dividend
- $45.50
- Slippage round-trip
- -$25.41
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$20.09
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.08%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~4.0%
PCAR Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical PCAR ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · PCAR (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.54% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +1.23% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +2.08% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.32% | |
| -0.84% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.34% | |
| -2.77% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +1.26% | |
| +0.26% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See PCAR seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for PCAR?
Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for PACCAR (PCAR), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take PCAR to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, PCAR touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 20 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on PCAR large enough to capture?
PCAR has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.42 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for PCAR?
The next ex-dividend date for PACCAR (PCAR) is May 13, 2026, confirmed (declared by the company).
How does PCAR compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Industrials, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. PCAR sits at 100% — above the sector benchmark.
Why does PCAR dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.