PH dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 90% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Parker-Hannifin (PH) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.13), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, PH sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 7, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
90%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.13
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 90% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.13 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | 0.05% | +0.38pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.73% | +1.30pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 4 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
Dividend
$2.00
Per-event yield
0.23%
Annualized yield
0.84%
Previously paid
May 8, 2026 ($2.00)
Last record date
May 8, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 5, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Parker-Hannifin (PH). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $2.00 | 0.58% | $886.85 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.38% | -2.50% | |
| Q1 | $1.80 | 1.03% | $967.62 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.40% | +3.71% | |
| Q4 | $1.80 | 0.22% | $834.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.35% | -0.05% | |
| Q3 | $1.80 | -1.75% | $759.35 | 4 | yes | yes | -2.69% | -0.30% | |
| Q2 | $1.80 | 0.19% | $641.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.02% | +6.34% | |
| Q1 | $1.63 | 0.36% | $691.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.20% | +1.49% | |
| Q4 | $1.63 | 0.03% | $689.77 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.84% | +1.56% | |
| Q3 | $1.63 | -0.02% | $590.09 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.67% | -2.25% | |
| Q2 | $1.63 | -0.15% | $554.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.11% | -2.49% | |
| Q1 | $1.48 | -0.27% | $514.22 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.66% | +1.78% | |
| Q4 | $1.48 | 0.23% | $412.82 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.03% | +5.16% | |
| Q3 | $1.48 | 0.98% | $398.33 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.32% | +6.43% | |
| Q2 | $1.48 | -1.13% | $326.88 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.91% | +2.98% | |
| Q1 | $1.33 | 0.38% | $351.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.76% | +1.10% | |
| Q4 | $1.33 | 3.96% | $289.23 | 1 | yes | yes | 2.16% | +5.61% | |
| Q3 | $1.33 | -0.23% | $292.38 | >30 | no | no | -10.31% | -8.95% | |
| Q2 | $1.33 | -1.18% | $264.89 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.36% | -0.33% | |
| Q1 | $1.03 | -1.85% | $314.25 | >30 | no | no | -10.79% | -3.25% | |
| Q4 | $1.03 | -0.32% | $329.57 | 3 | yes | yes | -1.60% | +0.24% | |
| Q3 | $1.03 | -0.09% | $303.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.71% | -2.50% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 14 | 70% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
Pre-filled with PH's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical PH ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-0.33%
Win rate (20 trades)
90%
Cumulative P&L
-6.55%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+199.46%
Best event
+0.50%
Worst event
-8.95%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · PH (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.34% | |
| +0.31% | |
| -3.25% | |
| +0.50% | |
| -8.95% | |
| +0.46% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.24% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.23% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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