Pool (POOL) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.10), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, POOL sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 12, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.10-0.08 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.10 | -0.08 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | 0.03% | +0.39pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.96% | in line with sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 4 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
| Dividend | $1.30 |
| Per-event yield | 0.62% |
| Annualized yield | 2.88% |
| Previously paid | Mar 12, 2026 ($1.25) |
| Last record date | Mar 12, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 26, 2026 |
POOL Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Pool (POOL). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.25 | -1.34% | $210.88 | 4 | yes | yes | -6.26% | -2.50% | |
| Q4 | $1.25 | -0.24% | $254.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.70% | -7.54% | |
| Q3 | $1.25 | -2.01% | $330.73 | 2 | yes | yes | -7.47% | -6.30% | |
| Q2 | $1.25 | -0.11% | $309.02 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.79% | -1.39% | |
| Q1 | $1.20 | -0.13% | $343.56 | >30 | no | no | -7.92% | -5.86% | |
| Q4 | $1.20 | 0.03% | $356.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.87% | +1.60% | |
| Q3 | $1.20 | 1.38% | $344.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.35% | +1.52% | |
| Q2 | $1.20 | -0.00% | $377.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.10% | -2.30% | |
| Q1 | $1.10 | 0.04% | $405.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.13% | +1.35% | |
| Q4 | $1.10 | -0.18% | $330.01 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.63% | +6.18% | |
| Q3 | $1.10 | -0.30% | $386.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.94% | -4.64% | |
| Q2 | $1.10 | -1.63% | $342.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.57% | -0.87% | |
| Q1 | $1.00 | 1.02% | $346.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.99% | +0.42% | |
| Q4 | $1.00 | -1.38% | $307.79 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.82% | +9.96% | |
| Q3 | $1.00 | 2.91% | $369.89 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.57% | +4.80% | |
| Q2 | $1.00 | 0.43% | $403.75 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.11% | +0.70% | |
| Q1 | $0.80 | 2.00% | $437.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.09% | +7.21% | |
| Q4 | $0.80 | -0.12% | $520.58 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.90% | +10.36% | |
| Q3 | $0.80 | 0.22% | $484.18 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.44% | -1.39% | |
| Q2 | $0.80 | 0.01% | $435.01 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.50% | -1.14% |
- -2.50%
- -7.54%
- -6.30%
- -1.39%
- -5.86%
- +1.60%
- +1.52%
- -2.30%
- +1.35%
- +6.18%
- -4.64%
- -0.87%
- +0.42%
- +9.96%
- +4.80%
- +0.70%
- +7.21%
- +10.36%
- -1.39%
- -1.14%
POOL Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 16 | 80% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
POOL Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with POOL's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $260.00
- After-tax dividend
- $169.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$42.18
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$126.82
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.30%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~15.2%
POOL Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical POOL ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · POOL (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.18% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.15% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.25% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.34% | |
| -5.86% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.59% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.