Ferrari (RACE) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 83% of the last 6 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.34), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, RACE sits noticeably below the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 83%-11pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.34+0.13 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 6 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 83% | -11pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.34 | +0.13 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.71% | -0.23pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 58% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.27% | +2.40pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 1 | — |
Next ex-dividend
The company has not declared a dividend, and we don't have enough recent history to extrapolate a reliable estimate.
RACE Dividend Capture History — Last 12 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Ferrari (RACE). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $4.25 | -1.44% | $372.84 | >30 | no | no | -9.61% | -6.94% | |
| Q2 | $4.27 | -0.93% | $372.85 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.61% | -5.57% | |
| Q2 | $3.39 | -0.43% | $447.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.66% | +4.03% | |
| Q2 | $2.60 | -0.53% | $408.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.77% | +4.01% | |
| Q2 | $2.00 | 0.29% | $278.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.67% | +1.12% | |
| Q2 | $1.36 | -1.22% | $220.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.23% | -6.05% | |
| Q2 | $1.04 | 0.30% | $212.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.16% | +3.34% | |
| Q2 | $1.13 | -1.46% | $161.34 | 21 | no | yes | -8.84% | -1.06% | |
| Q2 | $1.03 | -1.43% | $139.65 | 12 | no | yes | -7.30% | -1.85% | |
| Q2 | $0.71 | -0.99% | $122.68 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.28% | +0.58% | |
| Q2 | $0.64 | 2.92% | $70.82 | 1 | yes | yes | 2.22% | +7.80% | |
| Q2 | $0.46 | -1.34% | $41.03 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.39% | +4.53% |
- -6.94%
- -5.57%
- +4.03%
- +4.01%
- +1.12%
- -6.05%
- +3.34%
- -1.06%
- -1.85%
- +0.58%
- +7.80%
- +4.53%
RACE Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 7 | 58% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 17% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 17% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 8% |
RACE Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with RACE's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $850.00
- After-tax dividend
- $552.50
- Slippage round-trip
- -$74.57
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$477.93
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.64%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~32.3%
RACE Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical RACE ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
12 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · RACE (12)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +1.12% | |
| +0.90% | |
| +0.58% | |
| -1.85% | |
| -1.06% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.64% | |
| +0.76% | |
| +1.15% | |
| -6.94% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.