Ferrari (RACE) Dividend Capture: 1.14% per event (1.2% annualized)
RACE
Ferrari (RACE) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 83% of the last 6 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.34), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, RACE sits noticeably below the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 83%-12pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.34+0.13 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 6 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 83%-12pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.34+0.13 vs sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -0.71%-0.29pp vs sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 58%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -2.27%+2.40pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 1
Next ex-dividend
The company has not declared a dividend, and we don't have enough recent history to extrapolate a reliable estimate.
How RACE ranks in Consumer Cyclical
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (44 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#42of 44
Beats ~5% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#1of 44
Beats ~98% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#13of 44
Beats ~70% of peers on this metric
RACE Dividend Capture History — Last 12 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Ferrari (RACE). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $4.25 | -1.44% | $372.84 | >30 | no | no | -9.61% | -6.94% | |
| Q2 | $4.27 | -0.93% | $372.85 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.61% | -5.57% | |
| Q2 | $3.39 | -0.43% | $447.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.66% | +4.03% | |
| Q2 | $2.60 | -0.53% | $408.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.77% | +4.01% | |
| Q2 | $2.00 | 0.29% | $278.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.67% | +1.12% | |
| Q2 | $1.36 | -1.22% | $220.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.23% | -6.05% | |
| Q2 | $1.04 | 0.30% | $212.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.16% | +3.34% | |
| Q2 | $1.13 | -1.46% | $161.34 | 21 | no | yes | -8.84% | -1.06% | |
| Q2 | $1.03 | -1.43% | $139.65 | 12 | no | yes | -7.30% | -1.85% | |
| Q2 | $0.71 | -0.99% | $122.68 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.28% | +0.58% | |
| Q2 | $0.64 | 2.92% | $70.82 | 1 | yes | yes | 2.22% | +7.80% | |
| Q2 | $0.46 | -1.34% | $41.03 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.39% | +4.53% |
Q2
- Dividend
- $4.25
- Gap %
- -1.44%
- Pre-ex close
- $372.84
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -9.61%
- P&L 5d %
- -6.94%
Q2
- Dividend
- $4.27
- Gap %
- -0.93%
- Pre-ex close
- $372.85
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -9.61%
- P&L 5d %
- -5.57%
Q2
- Dividend
- $3.39
- Gap %
- -0.43%
- Pre-ex close
- $447.16
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.66%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.03%
Q2
- Dividend
- $2.60
- Gap %
- -0.53%
- Pre-ex close
- $408.65
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.77%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.01%
Q2
- Dividend
- $2.00
- Gap %
- 0.29%
- Pre-ex close
- $278.03
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.67%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.12%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.36
- Gap %
- -1.22%
- Pre-ex close
- $220.50
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -7.23%
- P&L 5d %
- -6.05%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.04
- Gap %
- 0.30%
- Pre-ex close
- $212.00
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.16%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.34%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.13
- Gap %
- -1.46%
- Pre-ex close
- $161.34
- High touch (td)
- 21
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -8.84%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.06%
Q2
- Dividend
- $1.03
- Gap %
- -1.43%
- Pre-ex close
- $139.65
- High touch (td)
- 12
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -7.30%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.85%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.71
- Gap %
- -0.99%
- Pre-ex close
- $122.68
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.28%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.58%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.64
- Gap %
- 2.92%
- Pre-ex close
- $70.82
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- 2.22%
- P&L 5d %
- +7.80%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.46
- Gap %
- -1.34%
- Pre-ex close
- $41.03
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.39%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.53%
RACE Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day758%
- 2–3 days217%
- 4–5 days00%
- 6–10 days00%
- 11–30 days217%
- 30+18%
58% within 1d · 75% within 5d · 92% within 30d
RACE Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with RACE's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $850.00
- After-tax dividend
- $552.50
- Slippage round-trip
- -$74.57
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$477.93
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.64%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~32.3%
RACE Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical RACE ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
12 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · RACE (12)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +1.12% | |
| +0.90% | |
| +0.58% | |
| -1.85% | |
| -1.06% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.64% | |
| +0.76% | |
| +1.15% | |
| -6.94% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See RACE seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for RACE?
Across the last 6 ex-dividend events for Ferrari (RACE), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 83% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take RACE to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, RACE touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 1 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on RACE large enough to capture?
RACE has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.34 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
How does RACE compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Consumer Cyclical, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. RACE sits at 83% — at or below the sector benchmark.
Why does RACE dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.