Raymond James Financial (RJF) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.17), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, RJF sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Jul 1, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.54.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.17-0.14 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.17 | -0.14 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.27% | +0.31pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 60% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.06% | +1.32pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 17 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
| Dividend | $0.54 |
| Per-event yield | 0.37% |
| Annualized yield | 1.36% |
| Previously paid | Apr 1, 2026 ($0.54) |
| Last record date | Apr 1, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 15, 2026 |
RJF Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Raymond James Financial (RJF). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.54 | 0.40% | $144.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.12% | +2.69% | |
| Q1 | $0.54 | -0.22% | $160.59 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.59% | +4.77% | |
| Q4 | $0.50 | -1.70% | $172.60 | 17 | no | yes | -8.26% | -4.03% | |
| Q3 | $0.50 | -0.63% | $153.37 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.09% | +3.78% | |
| Q2 | $0.50 | -1.13% | $138.91 | 2 | yes | yes | -15.36% | -9.75% | |
| Q1 | $0.50 | 0.32% | $155.33 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.71% | -0.40% | |
| Q4 | $0.45 | -0.38% | $122.46 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.67% | +2.36% | |
| Q3 | $0.45 | -0.04% | $123.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.21% | -3.63% | |
| Q1 | $0.45 | -0.13% | $127.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.30% | +1.05% | |
| Q4 | $0.45 | -0.37% | $112.73 | 15 | no | yes | -3.38% | +0.16% | |
| Q3 | $0.42 | 0.36% | $100.84 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.61% | -1.14% | |
| Q2 | $0.42 | 0.54% | $103.66 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.39% | +0.72% | |
| Q1 | $0.42 | 0.26% | $92.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.94% | -0.55% | |
| Q4 | $0.42 | -1.01% | $107.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.21% | +2.87% | |
| Q3 | $0.34 | -0.44% | $98.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.50% | +9.34% | |
| Q2 | $0.34 | -1.97% | $90.23 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.73% | +0.88% | |
| Q2 | $0.34 | 0.43% | $109.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.60% | -0.86% | |
| Q1 | $0.34 | 0.43% | $100.40 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.00% | +7.60% | |
| Q3 | $0.26 | 0.61% | $93.58 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.77% | +2.71% | |
| Q2 | $0.39 | -0.63% | $86.88 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.90% | -1.91% |
- +2.69%
- +4.77%
- -4.03%
- +3.78%
- -9.75%
- -0.40%
- +2.36%
- -3.63%
- +1.05%
- +0.16%
- -1.14%
- +0.72%
- -0.55%
- +2.87%
- +9.34%
- +0.88%
- -0.86%
- +7.60%
- +2.71%
- -1.91%
RJF Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 15 | 75% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
RJF Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with RJF's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $108.00
- After-tax dividend
- $70.20
- Slippage round-trip
- -$28.96
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$41.24
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.14%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~7.2%
RJF Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical RJF ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · RJF (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.45% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.46% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.33% | |
| -4.03% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.37% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.