What is the dividend capture success rate for RJF?

Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for Raymond James Financial (RJF), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.

How long does it take RJF to recover its dividend gap?

Historically, RJF touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 17 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.

Is the dividend on RJF large enough to capture?

RJF has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.17 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.

How does RJF compare to its sector for dividend capture?

Within Financial Services, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. RJF sits at 100% — above the sector benchmark.

Why does RJF dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?

A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".

How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?

Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.

What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?

Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.

Raymond James Financial (RJF) Dividend Capture: 0.37% per event (1.5% annualized)

Updated May 6, 202620 eventshigh

Raymond James Financial

RJF

Raymond James Financial (RJF) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.17), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.

Versus its sector, RJF sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.

Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit.

Touch rate (30d): 100%+5pp vs sector
Median days-to-touch: 1din line with sector
Signal-to-noise: 0.17-0.14 vs sector

Recovery engine

TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.

30-day touch rate: 100%
+5pp vs sector
Median days-to-touch: 1d
in line with sector
Signal-to-noise (div / ATR): 0.17
-0.14 vs sector
Avg gap on ex-date: -0.27%
+0.31pp vs sector
Win rate at MOC exit: 60%
Median drawdown during hold: -3.06%
+1.33pp vs sector
Best / worst touch (days): 1 / 17

Next ex-dividend

The company has not declared a dividend, and we don't have enough recent history to extrapolate a reliable estimate.

How RJF ranks in Financial Services

Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (101 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.

Full sector ranking

30-day touch rate
#1of 101
Beats ~99% of peers on this metric
Median days to touch
#1of 101
Beats ~99% of peers on this metric
Signal-to-noise
#80of 101
Beats ~21% of peers on this metric

RJF Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events

Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Raymond James Financial (RJF). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.

						Recovered 5d	Recovered 30d
Apr 1, 2026	Q2	$0.54	0.40%	$144.79	1	yes	yes	-4.12%	+2.69%
Jan 2, 2026	Q1	$0.54	-0.22%	$160.59	1	yes	yes	-0.59%	+4.77%
Oct 1, 2025	Q4	$0.50	-1.70%	$172.60	17	no	yes	-8.26%	-4.03%
Jul 1, 2025	Q3	$0.50	-0.63%	$153.37	1	yes	yes	-1.09%	+3.78%
Apr 1, 2025	Q2	$0.50	-1.13%	$138.91	2	yes	yes	-15.36%	-9.75%
Jan 2, 2025	Q1	$0.50	0.32%	$155.33	1	yes	yes	-1.71%	-0.40%
Oct 1, 2024	Q4	$0.45	-0.38%	$122.46	1	yes	yes	-1.67%	+2.36%
Jul 1, 2024	Q3	$0.45	-0.04%	$123.61	1	yes	yes	-5.21%	-3.63%
Mar 28, 2024	Q1	$0.45	-0.13%	$127.40	1	yes	yes	-2.30%	+1.05%
Dec 29, 2023	Q4	$0.45	-0.37%	$112.73	15	no	yes	-3.38%	+0.16%
Sep 29, 2023	Q3	$0.42	0.36%	$100.84	1	yes	yes	-5.61%	-1.14%
Jun 30, 2023	Q2	$0.42	0.54%	$103.66	1	yes	yes	-2.39%	+0.72%
Mar 31, 2023	Q1	$0.42	0.26%	$92.19	1	yes	yes	-3.94%	-0.55%
Dec 30, 2022	Q4	$0.42	-1.01%	$107.99	1	yes	yes	-3.21%	+2.87%
Sep 30, 2022	Q3	$0.34	-0.44%	$98.28	1	yes	yes	-0.50%	+9.34%
Jun 30, 2022	Q2	$0.34	-1.97%	$90.23	2	yes	yes	-4.73%	+0.88%
Apr 1, 2022	Q2	$0.34	0.43%	$109.91	1	yes	yes	-4.60%	-0.86%
Jan 3, 2022	Q1	$0.34	0.43%	$100.40	1	yes	yes	0.00%	+7.60%
Sep 30, 2021	Q3	$0.26	0.61%	$93.58	1	yes	yes	-1.77%	+2.71%
Jun 30, 2021	Q2	$0.39	-0.63%	$86.88	2	yes	yes	-2.90%	-1.91%

Ex-date Apr 1, 2026Q2
Dividend
$0.54
Gap %
0.40%
Pre-ex close
$144.79
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-4.12%
P&L 5d %
+2.69%
Ex-date Jan 2, 2026Q1
Dividend
$0.54
Gap %
-0.22%
Pre-ex close
$160.59
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-0.59%
P&L 5d %
+4.77%
Ex-date Oct 1, 2025Q4
Dividend
$0.50
Gap %
-1.70%
Pre-ex close
$172.60
High touch (td)
17
Recovered 5d
no
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-8.26%
P&L 5d %
-4.03%
Ex-date Jul 1, 2025Q3
Dividend
$0.50
Gap %
-0.63%
Pre-ex close
$153.37
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-1.09%
P&L 5d %
+3.78%
Ex-date Apr 1, 2025Q2
Dividend
$0.50
Gap %
-1.13%
Pre-ex close
$138.91
High touch (td)
2
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-15.36%
P&L 5d %
-9.75%
Ex-date Jan 2, 2025Q1
Dividend
$0.50
Gap %
0.32%
Pre-ex close
$155.33
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-1.71%
P&L 5d %
-0.40%
Ex-date Oct 1, 2024Q4
Dividend
$0.45
Gap %
-0.38%
Pre-ex close
$122.46
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-1.67%
P&L 5d %
+2.36%
Ex-date Jul 1, 2024Q3
Dividend
$0.45
Gap %
-0.04%
Pre-ex close
$123.61
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-5.21%
P&L 5d %
-3.63%
Ex-date Mar 28, 2024Q1
Dividend
$0.45
Gap %
-0.13%
Pre-ex close
$127.40
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-2.30%
P&L 5d %
+1.05%
Ex-date Dec 29, 2023Q4
Dividend
$0.45
Gap %
-0.37%
Pre-ex close
$112.73
High touch (td)
15
Recovered 5d
no
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-3.38%
P&L 5d %
+0.16%
Ex-date Sep 29, 2023Q3
Dividend
$0.42
Gap %
0.36%
Pre-ex close
$100.84
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-5.61%
P&L 5d %
-1.14%
Ex-date Jun 30, 2023Q2
Dividend
$0.42
Gap %
0.54%
Pre-ex close
$103.66
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-2.39%
P&L 5d %
+0.72%
Ex-date Mar 31, 2023Q1
Dividend
$0.42
Gap %
0.26%
Pre-ex close
$92.19
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-3.94%
P&L 5d %
-0.55%
Ex-date Dec 30, 2022Q4
Dividend
$0.42
Gap %
-1.01%
Pre-ex close
$107.99
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-3.21%
P&L 5d %
+2.87%
Ex-date Sep 30, 2022Q3
Dividend
$0.34
Gap %
-0.44%
Pre-ex close
$98.28
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-0.50%
P&L 5d %
+9.34%
Ex-date Jun 30, 2022Q2
Dividend
$0.34
Gap %
-1.97%
Pre-ex close
$90.23
High touch (td)
2
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-4.73%
P&L 5d %
+0.88%
Ex-date Apr 1, 2022Q2
Dividend
$0.34
Gap %
0.43%
Pre-ex close
$109.91
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-4.60%
P&L 5d %
-0.86%
Ex-date Jan 3, 2022Q1
Dividend
$0.34
Gap %
0.43%
Pre-ex close
$100.40
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
0.00%
P&L 5d %
+7.60%
Ex-date Sep 30, 2021Q3
Dividend
$0.26
Gap %
0.61%
Pre-ex close
$93.58
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-1.77%
P&L 5d %
+2.71%
Ex-date Jun 30, 2021Q2
Dividend
$0.39
Gap %
-0.63%
Pre-ex close
$86.88
High touch (td)
2
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-2.90%
P&L 5d %
-1.91%

RJF Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution

20 events analyzedHigh touched pre-ex within 5 trading days: 90% (18 events)

≤ 1 day
1575%
2–3 days
315%
4–5 days
00%
6–10 days
00%
11–30 days
210%
30+
00%

75% within 1d · 90% within 5d · 100% within 30d

RJF Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield

Pre-filled with RJF's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.

RJF dividend ($)RJF price ($)SharesHold (days)Tax %?Slippage % per leg

Slippage preset

Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.

Display

Gross dividend: $108.00
After-tax dividend: $70.20
Slippage round-trip: -$28.96
Net if price returns to pre-ex: +$41.24
Required recovery to break even: 0.00%
Per-event after-tax yield: +0.14%
Annual if all succeed: ~7.2%

Scenariosbase rate 100%

Best (limit fills)+$41.24

Average (base rate)+$41.24

Worst (no recovery)$66.76

Open in full calculator →

RJF Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator

Replay every historical RJF ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.

Limit window:Quarter:

Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).

Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).

Avg P&L per trade(20 events)+0.13%

Win rate (20 trades)

95%

Cumulative P&L

+2.70%Sum of per-event % (not compounded)

Buy & hold (same sample)

+74.92%Span: Jun 30, 2021 → Apr 1, 2026 · long-horizon total return vs repeating capture cycles

Best event

Mar 31, 2023+0.46%

Worst event

Oct 1, 2025-4.03%

Cumulative P&L (equity curve)

Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.

Jun 30, 2021Apr 1, 2026

Per-event P&L distribution

20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).

<-3%

-3..-1%

-1..0%

0..1%

1..3%

>3%

Scenario P&L by event · RJF (20)

Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.

Ex-date	P&L
Jun 30, 2021	+0.45%
Sep 30, 2021	+0.28%
Jan 3, 2022	+0.34%
Apr 1, 2022	+0.31%
Jun 30, 2022	+0.38%
Sep 30, 2022	+0.35%
Dec 30, 2022	+0.39%
Mar 31, 2023	+0.46%
Jun 30, 2023	+0.41%
Sep 29, 2023	+0.42%
Dec 29, 2023	+0.16%
Mar 28, 2024	+0.35%
Jul 1, 2024	+0.36%
Oct 1, 2024	+0.37%
Jan 2, 2025	+0.32%
Apr 1, 2025	+0.36%
Jul 1, 2025	+0.33%
Oct 1, 2025	-4.03%
Jan 2, 2026	+0.34%
Apr 1, 2026	+0.37%

Looking for full price seasonality? See RJF seasonality →

Frequently asked questions

What is the dividend capture success rate for RJF?: Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for Raymond James Financial (RJF), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take RJF to recover its dividend gap?: Historically, RJF touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 17 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on RJF large enough to capture?: RJF has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.17 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
How does RJF compare to its sector for dividend capture?: Within Financial Services, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. RJF sits at 100% — above the sector benchmark.
Why does RJF dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?: A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?: Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?: Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.