What is the dividend capture success rate for SAP?

Across the last 6 ex-dividend events for SAP (SAP), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.

How long does it take SAP to recover its dividend gap?

Historically, SAP touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 3 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.

Is the dividend on SAP large enough to capture?

SAP has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.74 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.

How does SAP compare to its sector for dividend capture?

Within Technology, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. SAP sits at 100% — above the sector benchmark.

Why does SAP dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?

A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".

How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?

Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.

What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?

Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.

SAP (SAP) Dividend Capture: 1-Day Touch

Updated May 6, 20266 eventsmedium

SAP

SAP (SAP) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 6 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.74), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.

Versus its sector, SAP sits roughly in line with the Technology sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.

Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit.

Touch rate (30d): 100%+5pp vs sector
Median days-to-touch: 1din line with sector
Signal-to-noise: 0.74+0.58 vs sector

Recovery engine

TL;DR over the most recent 6 events.

30-day touch rate: 100%
+5pp vs sector
Median days-to-touch: 1d
in line with sector
Signal-to-noise (div / ATR): 0.74
+0.58 vs sector
Avg gap on ex-date: -0.51%
-0.18pp vs sector
Win rate at MOC exit: 79%
Median drawdown during hold: -3.70%
+0.99pp vs sector
Best / worst touch (days): 1 / 3

Next ex-dividend

The company has not declared a dividend, and we don't have enough recent history to extrapolate a reliable estimate.

How SAP ranks in Technology

Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (48 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.

Full sector ranking

30-day touch rate
#1of 48
Beats ~98% of peers on this metric
Median days to touch
#1of 48
Beats ~98% of peers on this metric
Signal-to-noise
#2of 48
Beats ~96% of peers on this metric

SAP Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events

Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for SAP (SAP). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.

						Recovered 5d	Recovered 30d
May 5, 2026	Q2	$2.13	-0.23%	$171.42	1	yes	yes	-1.47%	—
May 13, 2025	Q2	$2.63	-1.49%	$293.51	3	yes	yes	-2.04%	+2.86%
May 16, 2024	Q2	$2.39	0.06%	$192.44	1	yes	yes	-6.59%	+2.58%
May 12, 2023	Q2	$2.23	-1.42%	$133.69	2	yes	yes	-3.68%	+2.11%
May 19, 2022	Q2	$2.61	-0.04%	$93.24	1	yes	yes	-0.25%	+8.41%
May 13, 2021	Q2	$2.19	0.04%	$135.50	1	yes	yes	-0.69%	+5.06%
May 21, 2020	Q2	$1.71	-1.32%	$120.30	3	yes	yes	-4.26%	+7.91%
May 16, 2019	Q2	$1.70	1.23%	$126.17	1	yes	yes	-2.04%	+1.69%
May 18, 2018	Q2	$1.73	-1.80%	$114.55	11	no	yes	-4.22%	+1.05%
May 11, 2017	Q2	$1.33	-1.17%	$103.39	2	yes	yes	-1.68%	+1.81%
May 10, 2016	Q2	$1.31	-1.85%	$78.31	10	no	yes	-2.25%	-0.05%
May 18, 2015	Q2	$1.19	-1.42%	$76.83	>30	no	no	-4.95%	-2.79%
May 22, 2014	Q2	$1.37	-1.54%	$75.53	3	yes	yes	-1.87%	+3.09%
May 31, 2013	Q2	$1.11	-2.41%	$76.28	6	no	yes	-3.72%	+1.54%
May 21, 2012	Q2	$1.48	-0.32%	$58.53	1	yes	yes	-6.32%	+2.00%
May 23, 2011	Q2	$0.82	-4.00%	$61.72	6	no	yes	-4.41%	+2.07%
Jun 4, 2010	Q2	$0.68	-3.02%	$44.34	7	no	yes	-5.39%	+1.03%
May 15, 2009	Q2	$0.68	-3.33%	$40.55	2	yes	yes	-3.65%	+4.53%
May 30, 2008	Q2	$0.78	-1.21%	$55.20	>30	no	no	-4.98%	-1.58%
May 8, 2007	Q2	$0.61	-2.53%	$48.16	12	no	yes	-4.94%	-2.25%

Ex-date May 5, 2026Q2
Dividend
$2.13
Gap %
-0.23%
Pre-ex close
$171.42
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-1.47%
P&L 5d %
—
Ex-date May 13, 2025Q2
Dividend
$2.63
Gap %
-1.49%
Pre-ex close
$293.51
High touch (td)
3
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-2.04%
P&L 5d %
+2.86%
Ex-date May 16, 2024Q2
Dividend
$2.39
Gap %
0.06%
Pre-ex close
$192.44
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-6.59%
P&L 5d %
+2.58%
Ex-date May 12, 2023Q2
Dividend
$2.23
Gap %
-1.42%
Pre-ex close
$133.69
High touch (td)
2
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-3.68%
P&L 5d %
+2.11%
Ex-date May 19, 2022Q2
Dividend
$2.61
Gap %
-0.04%
Pre-ex close
$93.24
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-0.25%
P&L 5d %
+8.41%
Ex-date May 13, 2021Q2
Dividend
$2.19
Gap %
0.04%
Pre-ex close
$135.50
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-0.69%
P&L 5d %
+5.06%
Ex-date May 21, 2020Q2
Dividend
$1.71
Gap %
-1.32%
Pre-ex close
$120.30
High touch (td)
3
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-4.26%
P&L 5d %
+7.91%
Ex-date May 16, 2019Q2
Dividend
$1.70
Gap %
1.23%
Pre-ex close
$126.17
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-2.04%
P&L 5d %
+1.69%
Ex-date May 18, 2018Q2
Dividend
$1.73
Gap %
-1.80%
Pre-ex close
$114.55
High touch (td)
11
Recovered 5d
no
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-4.22%
P&L 5d %
+1.05%
Ex-date May 11, 2017Q2
Dividend
$1.33
Gap %
-1.17%
Pre-ex close
$103.39
High touch (td)
2
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-1.68%
P&L 5d %
+1.81%
Ex-date May 10, 2016Q2
Dividend
$1.31
Gap %
-1.85%
Pre-ex close
$78.31
High touch (td)
10
Recovered 5d
no
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-2.25%
P&L 5d %
-0.05%
Ex-date May 18, 2015Q2
Dividend
$1.19
Gap %
-1.42%
Pre-ex close
$76.83
High touch (td)
>30
Recovered 5d
no
Recovered 30d
no
Drawdown
-4.95%
P&L 5d %
-2.79%
Ex-date May 22, 2014Q2
Dividend
$1.37
Gap %
-1.54%
Pre-ex close
$75.53
High touch (td)
3
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-1.87%
P&L 5d %
+3.09%
Ex-date May 31, 2013Q2
Dividend
$1.11
Gap %
-2.41%
Pre-ex close
$76.28
High touch (td)
6
Recovered 5d
no
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-3.72%
P&L 5d %
+1.54%
Ex-date May 21, 2012Q2
Dividend
$1.48
Gap %
-0.32%
Pre-ex close
$58.53
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-6.32%
P&L 5d %
+2.00%
Ex-date May 23, 2011Q2
Dividend
$0.82
Gap %
-4.00%
Pre-ex close
$61.72
High touch (td)
6
Recovered 5d
no
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-4.41%
P&L 5d %
+2.07%
Ex-date Jun 4, 2010Q2
Dividend
$0.68
Gap %
-3.02%
Pre-ex close
$44.34
High touch (td)
7
Recovered 5d
no
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-5.39%
P&L 5d %
+1.03%
Ex-date May 15, 2009Q2
Dividend
$0.68
Gap %
-3.33%
Pre-ex close
$40.55
High touch (td)
2
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-3.65%
P&L 5d %
+4.53%
Ex-date May 30, 2008Q2
Dividend
$0.78
Gap %
-1.21%
Pre-ex close
$55.20
High touch (td)
>30
Recovered 5d
no
Recovered 30d
no
Drawdown
-4.98%
P&L 5d %
-1.58%
Ex-date May 8, 2007Q2
Dividend
$0.61
Gap %
-2.53%
Pre-ex close
$48.16
High touch (td)
12
Recovered 5d
no
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-4.94%
P&L 5d %
-2.25%

SAP Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution

20 events analyzedHigh touched pre-ex within 5 trading days: 60% (12 events)

≤ 1 day
630%
2–3 days
630%
4–5 days
00%
6–10 days
420%
11–30 days
210%
30+
210%

30% within 1d · 60% within 5d · 90% within 30d

SAP Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield

Pre-filled with SAP's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.

SAP dividend ($)SAP price ($)SharesHold (days)Tax %?Slippage % per leg

Slippage preset

Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.

Display

Gross dividend: $100.00
After-tax dividend: $65.00
Slippage round-trip: -$34.28
Net if price returns to pre-ex: +$30.72
Required recovery to break even: 0.00%
Per-event after-tax yield: +0.09%
Annual if all succeed: ~4.5%

Scenariosbase rate 100%

Best (limit fills)+$30.72

Average (base rate)+$30.72

Worst (no recovery)$69.28

Open in full calculator →

SAP Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator

Replay every historical SAP ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.

Limit window:Quarter:

Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).

Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).

Avg P&L per trade(20 events)+0.93%

Win rate (20 trades)

80%

Cumulative P&L

+18.53%Sum of per-event % (not compounded)

Buy & hold (same sample)

+321.63%Span: May 8, 2007 → May 5, 2026 · long-horizon total return vs repeating capture cycles

Best event

May 19, 2022+2.80%

Worst event

May 18, 2015-2.79%

Cumulative P&L (equity curve)

Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.

May 8, 2007May 5, 2026

Per-event P&L distribution

20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).

<-3%

-3..-1%

-1..0%

0..1%

1..3%

>3%

Scenario P&L by event · SAP (20)

Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.

Ex-date	P&L
May 8, 2007	-2.25%
May 30, 2008	-1.58%
May 15, 2009	+1.66%
Jun 4, 2010	+1.03%
May 23, 2011	+2.07%
May 21, 2012	+2.53%
May 31, 2013	+1.54%
May 22, 2014	+1.81%
May 18, 2015	-2.79%
May 10, 2016	-0.05%
May 11, 2017	+1.29%
May 18, 2018	+1.05%
May 16, 2019	+1.34%
May 21, 2020	+1.42%
May 13, 2021	+1.62%
May 19, 2022	+2.80%
May 12, 2023	+1.67%
May 16, 2024	+1.24%
May 13, 2025	+0.90%
May 5, 2026	+1.24%

Looking for full price seasonality? See SAP seasonality →

Frequently asked questions

What is the dividend capture success rate for SAP?: Across the last 6 ex-dividend events for SAP (SAP), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take SAP to recover its dividend gap?: Historically, SAP touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 3 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on SAP large enough to capture?: SAP has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.74 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
How does SAP compare to its sector for dividend capture?: Within Technology, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. SAP sits at 100% — above the sector benchmark.
Why does SAP dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?: A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?: Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?: Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.