Stepan (SCL) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 89% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.18), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, SCL sits noticeably below the Basic Materials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 31, 2026 (±2 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 89%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.18in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 89% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.18 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.24% | +0.17pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 40% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.54% | +0.16pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 13 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±2 days.
| Dividend | $0.40 |
| Per-event yield | 0.78% |
| Annualized yield | 2.98% |
| Previously paid | Mar 2, 2026 ($0.40) |
| Last record date | Mar 2, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 13, 2026 |
SCL Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Stepan (SCL). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.40 | -2.53% | $50.89 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.67% | -4.94% | |
| Q4 | $0.40 | -0.22% | $45.41 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.18% | +0.32% | |
| Q3 | $0.39 | -0.10% | $50.25 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.94% | +0.33% | |
| Q2 | $0.39 | -0.97% | $55.51 | 7 | no | yes | -4.76% | -0.68% | |
| Q1 | $0.39 | -0.06% | $61.76 | >30 | no | no | -8.52% | -5.58% | |
| Q4 | $0.39 | -0.22% | $76.09 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.13% | -1.04% | |
| Q3 | $0.38 | -0.71% | $78.49 | 13 | no | yes | -11.10% | -8.31% | |
| Q2 | $0.38 | 0.06% | $84.66 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.76% | -0.15% | |
| Q1 | $0.38 | 0.62% | $88.75 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.03% | -0.52% | |
| Q4 | $0.38 | 0.35% | $82.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.27% | +4.64% | |
| Q3 | $0.36 | -0.72% | $87.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.02% | -9.17% | |
| Q2 | $0.36 | -0.25% | $93.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.65% | +4.68% | |
| Q1 | $0.36 | -1.04% | $103.89 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.85% | -4.74% | |
| Q4 | $0.36 | -0.33% | $108.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.78% | +2.36% | |
| Q3 | $0.34 | -0.76% | $107.07 | >30 | no | no | -8.43% | -4.50% | |
| Q2 | $0.34 | 0.91% | $109.84 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.33% | +2.51% | |
| Q1 | $0.34 | 0.61% | $104.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.01% | -5.57% | |
| Q4 | $0.34 | 0.74% | $118.29 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.21% | +3.39% | |
| Q3 | $0.30 | 0.05% | $117.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.77% | -0.73% | |
| Q2 | $0.30 | 0.82% | $134.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.74% | +0.04% |
- -4.94%
- +0.32%
- +0.33%
- -0.68%
- -5.58%
- -1.04%
- -8.31%
- -0.15%
- -0.52%
- +4.64%
- -9.17%
- +4.68%
- -4.74%
- +2.36%
- -4.50%
- +2.51%
- -5.57%
- +3.39%
- -0.73%
- +0.04%
SCL Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 16 | 80% | |
| 2–3 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
SCL Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with SCL's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $80.00
- After-tax dividend
- $52.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$10.18
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$41.82
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.41%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~20.7%
SCL Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical SCL ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · SCL (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.23% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.30% | |
| -4.50% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +0.46% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +0.44% | |
| -8.31% | |
| +0.51% | |
| -5.58% | |
| -0.68% | |
| +0.77% | |
| +0.87% | |
| +0.78% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.