Seagate Technology (STX) Dividend Capture: 0.17% per event (0.4% annualized)
Seagate Technology (STX) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.23), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, STX sits roughly in line with the Technology sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Jun 24, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.74.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.23+0.07 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.23+0.07 vs sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -0.72%-0.39pp vs sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 55%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -4.79%in line with sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 29
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
- Dividend
- $0.74
- Per-event yield
- 0.17%
- Annualized yield
- 0.38%
- Previously paid
- Mar 25, 2026 ($0.74)
- Last record date
- Mar 25, 2026
- Last payment date
- Apr 8, 2026
How STX ranks in Technology
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (48 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#22of 48
Beats ~54% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#1of 48
Beats ~98% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#13of 48
Beats ~73% of peers on this metric
STX Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Seagate Technology (STX). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.74 | -3.48% | $424.96 | 6 | no | yes | -17.31% | -0.26% | |
| Q4 | $0.74 | -0.44% | $282.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.02% | +1.94% | |
| Q3 | $0.72 | -0.99% | $229.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.21% | -1.49% | |
| Q2 | $0.72 | 1.00% | $136.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.02% | +11.99% | |
| Q1 | $0.72 | -0.23% | $88.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.50% | -0.33% | |
| Q4 | $0.72 | -0.06% | $97.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.03% | -9.84% | |
| Q3 | $0.70 | 0.35% | $104.74 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.10% | +5.24% | |
| Q2 | $0.70 | -0.83% | $105.99 | 14 | no | yes | -4.70% | -1.12% | |
| Q1 | $0.70 | -0.52% | $86.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.29% | +10.06% | |
| Q4 | $0.70 | -1.11% | $83.90 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.87% | +4.28% | |
| Q3 | $0.70 | -1.37% | $65.90 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.91% | +1.50% | |
| Q2 | $0.70 | -2.29% | $64.30 | 29 | no | yes | -6.69% | -2.32% | |
| Q1 | $0.70 | 0.14% | $62.06 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.64% | -1.50% | |
| Q4 | $0.70 | -1.80% | $50.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.02% | +1.49% | |
| Q3 | $0.70 | -2.14% | $62.02 | >30 | no | no | -14.48% | -7.72% | |
| Q2 | $0.70 | -0.04% | $71.60 | 2 | yes | yes | -5.92% | +0.75% | |
| Q1 | $0.70 | -0.59% | $94.32 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.16% | -1.30% | |
| Q4 | $0.70 | 2.29% | $105.13 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.63% | +10.05% | |
| Q3 | $0.67 | 0.16% | $82.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.00% | +2.31% | |
| Q2 | $0.67 | -2.51% | $89.99 | 4 | yes | yes | -6.78% | +13.17% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.74
- Gap %
- -3.48%
- Pre-ex close
- $424.96
- High touch (td)
- 6
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -17.31%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.26%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.74
- Gap %
- -0.44%
- Pre-ex close
- $282.80
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.02%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.94%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.72
- Gap %
- -0.99%
- Pre-ex close
- $229.14
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -7.21%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.49%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.72
- Gap %
- 1.00%
- Pre-ex close
- $136.31
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.02%
- P&L 5d %
- +11.99%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.72
- Gap %
- -0.23%
- Pre-ex close
- $88.64
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.50%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.33%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.72
- Gap %
- -0.06%
- Pre-ex close
- $97.64
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -11.03%
- P&L 5d %
- -9.84%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.70
- Gap %
- 0.35%
- Pre-ex close
- $104.74
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- 0.10%
- P&L 5d %
- +5.24%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.70
- Gap %
- -0.83%
- Pre-ex close
- $105.99
- High touch (td)
- 14
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.70%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.12%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.70
- Gap %
- -0.52%
- Pre-ex close
- $86.57
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.29%
- P&L 5d %
- +10.06%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.70
- Gap %
- -1.11%
- Pre-ex close
- $83.90
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.87%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.28%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.70
- Gap %
- -1.37%
- Pre-ex close
- $65.90
- High touch (td)
- 4
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.91%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.50%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.70
- Gap %
- -2.29%
- Pre-ex close
- $64.30
- High touch (td)
- 29
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.69%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.32%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.70
- Gap %
- 0.14%
- Pre-ex close
- $62.06
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.64%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.50%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.70
- Gap %
- -1.80%
- Pre-ex close
- $50.99
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.02%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.49%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.70
- Gap %
- -2.14%
- Pre-ex close
- $62.02
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -14.48%
- P&L 5d %
- -7.72%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.70
- Gap %
- -0.04%
- Pre-ex close
- $71.60
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.92%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.75%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.70
- Gap %
- -0.59%
- Pre-ex close
- $94.32
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -7.16%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.30%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.70
- Gap %
- 2.29%
- Pre-ex close
- $105.13
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- 0.63%
- P&L 5d %
- +10.05%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.67
- Gap %
- 0.16%
- Pre-ex close
- $82.95
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.00%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.31%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.67
- Gap %
- -2.51%
- Pre-ex close
- $89.99
- High touch (td)
- 4
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.78%
- P&L 5d %
- +13.17%
STX Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day1260%
- 2–3 days210%
- 4–5 days210%
- 6–10 days15%
- 11–30 days210%
- 30+15%
60% within 1d · 80% within 5d · 95% within 30d
STX Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with STX's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $148.00
- After-tax dividend
- $96.20
- Slippage round-trip
- -$84.99
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$11.21
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.01%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~0.7%
STX Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical STX ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · STX (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.74% | |
| +0.81% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.74% | |
| +0.98% | |
| -7.72% | |
| +1.37% | |
| +1.13% | |
| -2.32% | |
| +1.06% | |
| +0.83% | |
| +0.81% | |
| -1.12% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.74% | |
| +0.81% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.26% | |
| -0.26% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See STX seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for STX?
Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for Seagate Technology (STX), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take STX to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, STX touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 29 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on STX large enough to capture?
STX has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.23 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for STX?
The next ex-dividend date for Seagate Technology (STX) is Jun 24, 2026, confirmed (declared by the company).
How does STX compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Technology, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. STX sits at 95% — at or below the sector benchmark.
Why does STX dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.