Seagate Technology (STX) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.23), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, STX sits roughly in line with the Technology sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Jun 24, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.74.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.23+0.07 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.23 | +0.07 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.63% | -0.30pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.79% | -0.17pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 29 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
| Dividend | $0.74 |
| Per-event yield | 0.17% |
| Annualized yield | 0.27% |
| Previously paid | Mar 25, 2026 ($0.74) |
| Last record date | Mar 25, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 8, 2026 |
STX Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Seagate Technology (STX). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.74 | -3.48% | $424.96 | 6 | no | yes | -17.31% | -0.26% | |
| Q4 | $0.74 | -0.44% | $282.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.02% | +1.94% | |
| Q3 | $0.72 | -0.99% | $229.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.21% | -1.49% | |
| Q2 | $0.72 | 1.00% | $136.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.02% | +11.99% | |
| Q1 | $0.72 | -0.23% | $88.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.50% | -0.33% | |
| Q4 | $0.72 | -0.06% | $97.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.03% | -9.84% | |
| Q3 | $0.70 | 0.35% | $104.74 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.10% | +5.24% | |
| Q2 | $0.70 | -0.83% | $105.99 | 14 | no | yes | -4.70% | -1.12% | |
| Q1 | $0.70 | -0.52% | $86.57 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.29% | +10.06% | |
| Q4 | $0.70 | -1.11% | $83.90 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.87% | +4.28% | |
| Q3 | $0.70 | -1.37% | $65.90 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.91% | +1.50% | |
| Q2 | $0.70 | -2.29% | $64.30 | 29 | no | yes | -6.69% | -2.32% | |
| Q1 | $0.70 | 0.14% | $62.06 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.64% | -1.50% | |
| Q4 | $0.70 | -1.80% | $50.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.02% | +1.49% | |
| Q3 | $0.70 | -2.14% | $62.02 | >30 | no | no | -14.48% | -7.72% | |
| Q2 | $0.70 | -0.04% | $71.60 | 2 | yes | yes | -5.92% | +0.75% | |
| Q1 | $0.70 | -0.59% | $94.32 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.16% | -1.30% | |
| Q4 | $0.70 | 2.29% | $105.13 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.63% | +10.05% | |
| Q3 | $0.67 | 0.16% | $82.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.00% | +2.31% | |
| Q2 | $0.67 | -2.51% | $89.99 | 4 | yes | yes | -6.78% | +13.17% |
- -0.26%
- +1.94%
- -1.49%
- +11.99%
- -0.33%
- -9.84%
- +5.24%
- -1.12%
- +10.06%
- +4.28%
- +1.50%
- -2.32%
- -1.50%
- +1.49%
- -7.72%
- +0.75%
- -1.30%
- +10.05%
- +2.31%
- +13.17%
STX Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 12 | 60% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
STX Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with STX's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $148.00
- After-tax dividend
- $96.20
- Slippage round-trip
- -$84.99
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$11.21
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.01%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~0.7%
STX Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical STX ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · STX (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.74% | |
| +0.81% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.74% | |
| +0.98% | |
| -7.72% | |
| +1.37% | |
| +1.13% | |
| -2.32% | |
| +1.06% | |
| +0.83% | |
| +0.81% | |
| -1.12% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.74% | |
| +0.81% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.26% | |
| -0.26% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.