Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 89% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.31), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, SWK sits noticeably below the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 7, 2026 (±3 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 89%-6pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.31+0.13 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 89% | -6pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.31 | +0.13 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.94% | -0.58pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 40% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -6.55% | -2.52pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 10 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±3 days.
| Dividend | $0.83 |
| Per-event yield | 1.10% |
| Annualized yield | 4.23% |
| Previously paid | Mar 10, 2026 ($0.83) |
| Last record date | Mar 10, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 24, 2026 |
SWK Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Stanley Black & Decker (SWK). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.83 | -1.55% | $75.62 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.01% | -4.97% | |
| Q4 | $0.83 | -2.49% | $71.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.15% | +2.34% | |
| Q3 | $0.83 | -2.97% | $74.29 | 3 | yes | yes | -4.05% | +4.42% | |
| Q2 | $0.82 | -1.31% | $63.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.44% | +9.44% | |
| Q1 | $0.82 | -2.58% | $84.08 | 2 | yes | yes | -5.64% | -0.48% | |
| Q4 | $0.82 | -0.02% | $89.77 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.95% | -5.00% | |
| Q3 | $0.82 | -1.26% | $102.36 | 10 | no | yes | -8.02% | -4.79% | |
| Q2 | $0.81 | -2.99% | $86.99 | 7 | no | yes | -7.32% | -2.86% | |
| Q1 | $0.81 | 0.06% | $90.09 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.32% | +0.34% | |
| Q4 | $0.81 | -0.40% | $91.46 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.29% | +2.73% | |
| Q3 | $0.81 | 0.14% | $94.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.46% | -2.78% | |
| Q2 | $0.80 | 0.63% | $76.14 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.54% | +12.16% | |
| Q1 | $0.80 | -0.70% | $87.26 | >30 | no | no | -10.99% | -7.09% | |
| Q4 | $0.80 | -0.66% | $80.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.88% | -3.06% | |
| Q3 | $0.80 | 0.57% | $87.68 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.32% | +5.55% | |
| Q2 | $0.79 | -0.28% | $114.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.57% | -6.92% | |
| Q1 | $0.79 | -0.30% | $161.66 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.41% | -9.82% | |
| Q4 | $0.79 | -1.46% | $184.15 | 5 | yes | yes | -7.11% | +1.46% | |
| Q3 | $0.79 | -0.28% | $193.09 | >30 | no | no | -5.99% | -3.02% | |
| Q2 | $0.70 | -0.20% | $212.85 | >30 | no | no | -9.79% | -4.33% |
- -4.97%
- +2.34%
- +4.42%
- +9.44%
- -0.48%
- -5.00%
- -4.79%
- -2.86%
- +0.34%
- +2.73%
- -2.78%
- +12.16%
- -7.09%
- -3.06%
- +5.55%
- -6.92%
- -9.82%
- +1.46%
- -3.02%
- -4.33%
SWK Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 12 | 60% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 3 | 15% |
SWK Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with SWK's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $166.00
- After-tax dividend
- $107.90
- Slippage round-trip
- -$15.12
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$92.78
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.61%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~30.9%
SWK Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical SWK ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · SWK (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -4.33% | |
| -3.02% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.91% | |
| +0.99% | |
| -7.09% | |
| +1.05% | |
| +0.86% | |
| +0.89% | |
| +0.90% | |
| -2.86% | |
| -4.79% | |
| +0.91% | |
| +0.98% | |
| +1.28% | |
| +1.12% | |
| +1.16% | |
| +1.10% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.