Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) Dividend Capture: 1.10% per event (4.3% annualized)
Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 85% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.31), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, SWK sits noticeably below the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Jun 8, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.83.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 85%-10pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.31+0.12 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 85%-10pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.31+0.12 vs sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -0.90%-0.55pp vs sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 40%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -6.55%-2.58pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 10
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
- Dividend
- $0.83
- Per-event yield
- 1.10%
- Annualized yield
- 4.29%
- Previously paid
- Mar 10, 2026 ($0.83)
- Last record date
- Mar 10, 2026
- Last payment date
- Mar 24, 2026
How SWK ranks in Industrials
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (87 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#84of 87
Beats ~3% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#1of 87
Beats ~99% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#16of 87
Beats ~82% of peers on this metric
SWK Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Stanley Black & Decker (SWK). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.83 | -1.55% | $75.62 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.01% | -4.97% | |
| Q4 | $0.83 | -2.49% | $71.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.15% | +2.34% | |
| Q3 | $0.83 | -2.97% | $74.29 | 3 | yes | yes | -4.05% | +4.42% | |
| Q2 | $0.82 | -1.31% | $63.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.44% | +9.44% | |
| Q1 | $0.82 | -2.58% | $84.08 | 2 | yes | yes | -5.64% | -0.48% | |
| Q4 | $0.82 | -0.02% | $89.77 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.95% | -5.00% | |
| Q3 | $0.82 | -1.26% | $102.36 | 10 | no | yes | -8.02% | -4.79% | |
| Q2 | $0.81 | -2.99% | $86.99 | 7 | no | yes | -7.32% | -2.86% | |
| Q1 | $0.81 | 0.06% | $90.09 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.32% | +0.34% | |
| Q4 | $0.81 | -0.40% | $91.46 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.29% | +2.73% | |
| Q3 | $0.81 | 0.14% | $94.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.46% | -2.78% | |
| Q2 | $0.80 | 0.63% | $76.14 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.54% | +12.16% | |
| Q1 | $0.80 | -0.70% | $87.26 | >30 | no | no | -10.99% | -7.09% | |
| Q4 | $0.80 | -0.66% | $80.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.88% | -3.06% | |
| Q3 | $0.80 | 0.57% | $87.68 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.32% | +5.55% | |
| Q2 | $0.79 | -0.28% | $114.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.57% | -6.92% | |
| Q1 | $0.79 | -0.30% | $161.66 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.41% | -9.82% | |
| Q4 | $0.79 | -1.46% | $184.15 | 5 | yes | yes | -7.11% | +1.46% | |
| Q3 | $0.79 | -0.28% | $193.09 | >30 | no | no | -5.99% | -3.02% | |
| Q2 | $0.70 | -0.20% | $212.85 | >30 | no | no | -9.79% | -4.33% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.83
- Gap %
- -1.55%
- Pre-ex close
- $75.62
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -12.01%
- P&L 5d %
- -4.97%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.83
- Gap %
- -2.49%
- Pre-ex close
- $71.52
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.15%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.34%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.83
- Gap %
- -2.97%
- Pre-ex close
- $74.29
- High touch (td)
- 3
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.05%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.42%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.82
- Gap %
- -1.31%
- Pre-ex close
- $63.95
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.44%
- P&L 5d %
- +9.44%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.82
- Gap %
- -2.58%
- Pre-ex close
- $84.08
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.64%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.48%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.82
- Gap %
- -0.02%
- Pre-ex close
- $89.77
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -7.95%
- P&L 5d %
- -5.00%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.82
- Gap %
- -1.26%
- Pre-ex close
- $102.36
- High touch (td)
- 10
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -8.02%
- P&L 5d %
- -4.79%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.81
- Gap %
- -2.99%
- Pre-ex close
- $86.99
- High touch (td)
- 7
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -7.32%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.86%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.81
- Gap %
- 0.06%
- Pre-ex close
- $90.09
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.32%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.34%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.81
- Gap %
- -0.40%
- Pre-ex close
- $91.46
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.29%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.73%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.81
- Gap %
- 0.14%
- Pre-ex close
- $94.38
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -8.46%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.78%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.80
- Gap %
- 0.63%
- Pre-ex close
- $76.14
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- 0.54%
- P&L 5d %
- +12.16%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.80
- Gap %
- -0.70%
- Pre-ex close
- $87.26
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -10.99%
- P&L 5d %
- -7.09%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.80
- Gap %
- -0.66%
- Pre-ex close
- $80.51
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.88%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.06%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.80
- Gap %
- 0.57%
- Pre-ex close
- $87.68
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.32%
- P&L 5d %
- +5.55%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.79
- Gap %
- -0.28%
- Pre-ex close
- $114.53
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -12.57%
- P&L 5d %
- -6.92%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.79
- Gap %
- -0.30%
- Pre-ex close
- $161.66
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -11.41%
- P&L 5d %
- -9.82%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.79
- Gap %
- -1.46%
- Pre-ex close
- $184.15
- High touch (td)
- 5
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -7.11%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.46%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.79
- Gap %
- -0.28%
- Pre-ex close
- $193.09
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -5.99%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.02%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.70
- Gap %
- -0.20%
- Pre-ex close
- $212.85
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -9.79%
- P&L 5d %
- -4.33%
SWK Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day1260%
- 2–3 days210%
- 4–5 days15%
- 6–10 days210%
- 11–30 days00%
- 30+315%
60% within 1d · 75% within 5d · 85% within 30d
SWK Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with SWK's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $166.00
- After-tax dividend
- $107.90
- Slippage round-trip
- -$15.12
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$92.78
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.61%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~30.9%
SWK Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical SWK ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · SWK (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -4.33% | |
| -3.02% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.91% | |
| +0.99% | |
| -7.09% | |
| +1.05% | |
| +0.86% | |
| +0.89% | |
| +0.90% | |
| -2.86% | |
| -4.79% | |
| +0.91% | |
| +0.98% | |
| +1.28% | |
| +1.12% | |
| +1.16% | |
| +1.10% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See SWK seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for SWK?
Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 85% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take SWK to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, SWK touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 10 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on SWK large enough to capture?
SWK has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.31 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for SWK?
The next ex-dividend date for Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) is Jun 8, 2026, confirmed (declared by the company).
How does SWK compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Industrials, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. SWK sits at 85% — at or below the sector benchmark.
Why does SWK dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.