AT&T (T) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 75% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 4 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.92), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, T sits noticeably below the Communication Services sector benchmark of 90%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Jul 11, 2026 (±2 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 75%-15pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 4d+3.0d vs sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.92+0.65 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 75% | -15pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 4d | +3.0d vs sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.92 | +0.65 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -1.48% | -0.99pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -5.85% | -1.10pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 15 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±2 days.
| Dividend | $0.28 |
| Per-event yield | 1.03% |
| Annualized yield | 4.20% |
| Previously paid | Apr 10, 2026 ($0.28) |
| Last record date | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Last payment date | May 1, 2026 |
T Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for AT&T (T). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.28 | -1.19% | $26.84 | >30 | no | no | -7.08% | -0.19% | |
| Q1 | $0.28 | -0.96% | $23.99 | 12 | no | yes | -3.33% | -1.09% | |
| Q4 | $0.28 | -1.00% | $26.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.82% | +1.98% | |
| Q3 | $0.28 | -1.21% | $28.10 | 11 | no | yes | -8.01% | -2.96% | |
| Q2 | $0.28 | -0.87% | $26.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.15% | +3.62% | |
| Q1 | $0.28 | -1.35% | $22.18 | 6 | no | yes | -3.61% | +1.75% | |
| Q4 | $0.28 | -1.50% | $21.93 | 7 | no | yes | -4.01% | +0.35% | |
| Q3 | $0.28 | -1.22% | $18.80 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.51% | +3.39% | |
| Q2 | $0.28 | -1.45% | $17.25 | 15 | no | yes | -7.59% | -5.12% | |
| Q1 | $0.28 | -2.02% | $17.32 | 13 | no | yes | -6.76% | -3.65% | |
| Q4 | $0.28 | -2.76% | $14.83 | 3 | yes | yes | -4.79% | -1.30% | |
| Q3 | $0.28 | -2.08% | $15.87 | >30 | no | no | -15.37% | -6.88% | |
| Q2 | $0.28 | -1.16% | $19.88 | 3 | yes | yes | -11.67% | +1.65% | |
| Q1 | $0.28 | -1.48% | $19.53 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.89% | +0.40% | |
| Q4 | $0.28 | -1.82% | $15.93 | 11 | no | yes | -9.23% | -3.34% | |
| Q3 | $0.28 | -1.04% | $21.15 | >30 | no | no | -13.76% | -1.43% | |
| Q2 | $0.28 | -2.25% | $19.56 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.91% | +4.74% | |
| Q1 | $0.52 | -0.76% | $19.71 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.32% | +6.70% | |
| Q4 | $0.52 | -1.12% | $20.61 | >30 | no | no | -8.39% | -3.64% | |
| Q3 | $0.52 | -2.29% | $21.84 | >30 | no | no | -4.95% | +0.64% |
- -0.19%
- -1.09%
- +1.98%
- -2.96%
- +3.62%
- +1.75%
- +0.35%
- +3.39%
- -5.12%
- -3.65%
- -1.30%
- -6.88%
- +1.65%
- +0.40%
- -3.34%
- -1.43%
- +4.74%
- +6.70%
- -3.64%
- +0.64%
T Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 3 | 15% | |
| 2–3 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 5 | 25% | |
| 30+ | 5 | 25% |
T Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with T's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $56.00
- After-tax dividend
- $36.40
- Slippage round-trip
- -$5.37
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$31.03
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.58%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~29.1%
T Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical T ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · T (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.64% | |
| -3.64% | |
| +2.64% | |
| +1.42% | |
| -1.43% | |
| -3.34% | |
| +1.42% | |
| +1.40% | |
| -6.88% | |
| +1.87% | |
| -3.65% | |
| -5.12% | |
| +1.48% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +1.75% | |
| +1.05% | |
| -2.96% | |
| +1.06% | |
| -1.09% | |
| -0.19% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.