AT&T (T) Dividend Capture: 1.04% per event (4.2% annualized)
T
AT&T (T) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 75% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 4 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.92), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, T sits noticeably below the Communication Services sector benchmark of 90%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Jul 11, 2026 (±2 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 75%-15pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 4d+3.0d vs sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.92+0.65 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 75%-15pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 4d+3.0d vs sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.92+0.65 vs sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -1.48%-1.00pp vs sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 50%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -5.85%-0.90pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 15
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±2 days.
- Dividend
- $0.28
- Per-event yield
- 1.04%
- Annualized yield
- 4.20%
- Previously paid
- Apr 10, 2026 ($0.28)
- Last record date
- Apr 10, 2026
- Last payment date
- May 1, 2026
The company has not yet declared this dividend. Date and amount may shift when the official declaration arrives.
How T ranks in Communication Services
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (15 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#14of 15
Beats ~7% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#14of 15
Beats ~7% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#2of 15
Beats ~87% of peers on this metric
T Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for AT&T (T). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.28 | -1.19% | $26.84 | >30 | no | no | -7.08% | -0.19% | |
| Q1 | $0.28 | -0.96% | $23.99 | 12 | no | yes | -3.33% | -1.09% | |
| Q4 | $0.28 | -1.00% | $26.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.82% | +1.98% | |
| Q3 | $0.28 | -1.21% | $28.10 | 11 | no | yes | -8.01% | -2.96% | |
| Q2 | $0.28 | -0.87% | $26.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.15% | +3.62% | |
| Q1 | $0.28 | -1.35% | $22.18 | 6 | no | yes | -3.61% | +1.75% | |
| Q4 | $0.28 | -1.50% | $21.93 | 7 | no | yes | -4.01% | +0.35% | |
| Q3 | $0.28 | -1.22% | $18.80 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.51% | +3.39% | |
| Q2 | $0.28 | -1.45% | $17.25 | 15 | no | yes | -7.59% | -5.12% | |
| Q1 | $0.28 | -2.02% | $17.32 | 13 | no | yes | -6.76% | -3.65% | |
| Q4 | $0.28 | -2.76% | $14.83 | 3 | yes | yes | -4.79% | -1.30% | |
| Q3 | $0.28 | -2.08% | $15.87 | >30 | no | no | -15.37% | -6.88% | |
| Q2 | $0.28 | -1.16% | $19.88 | 3 | yes | yes | -11.67% | +1.65% | |
| Q1 | $0.28 | -1.48% | $19.53 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.89% | +0.40% | |
| Q4 | $0.28 | -1.82% | $15.93 | 11 | no | yes | -9.23% | -3.34% | |
| Q3 | $0.28 | -1.04% | $21.15 | >30 | no | no | -13.76% | -1.43% | |
| Q2 | $0.28 | -2.25% | $19.56 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.91% | +4.74% | |
| Q1 | $0.52 | -0.76% | $19.71 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.32% | +6.70% | |
| Q4 | $0.52 | -1.12% | $20.61 | >30 | no | no | -8.39% | -3.64% | |
| Q3 | $0.52 | -2.29% | $21.84 | >30 | no | no | -4.95% | +0.64% |
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.28
- Gap %
- -1.19%
- Pre-ex close
- $26.84
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -7.08%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.19%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.28
- Gap %
- -0.96%
- Pre-ex close
- $23.99
- High touch (td)
- 12
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.33%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.09%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.28
- Gap %
- -1.00%
- Pre-ex close
- $26.10
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.82%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.98%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.28
- Gap %
- -1.21%
- Pre-ex close
- $28.10
- High touch (td)
- 11
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -8.01%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.96%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.28
- Gap %
- -0.87%
- Pre-ex close
- $26.47
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.15%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.62%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.28
- Gap %
- -1.35%
- Pre-ex close
- $22.18
- High touch (td)
- 6
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.61%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.75%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.28
- Gap %
- -1.50%
- Pre-ex close
- $21.93
- High touch (td)
- 7
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.01%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.35%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.28
- Gap %
- -1.22%
- Pre-ex close
- $18.80
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.51%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.39%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.28
- Gap %
- -1.45%
- Pre-ex close
- $17.25
- High touch (td)
- 15
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -7.59%
- P&L 5d %
- -5.12%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.28
- Gap %
- -2.02%
- Pre-ex close
- $17.32
- High touch (td)
- 13
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.76%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.65%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.28
- Gap %
- -2.76%
- Pre-ex close
- $14.83
- High touch (td)
- 3
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.79%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.30%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.28
- Gap %
- -2.08%
- Pre-ex close
- $15.87
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -15.37%
- P&L 5d %
- -6.88%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.28
- Gap %
- -1.16%
- Pre-ex close
- $19.88
- High touch (td)
- 3
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -11.67%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.65%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.28
- Gap %
- -1.48%
- Pre-ex close
- $19.53
- High touch (td)
- 4
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.89%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.40%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.28
- Gap %
- -1.82%
- Pre-ex close
- $15.93
- High touch (td)
- 11
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -9.23%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.34%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.28
- Gap %
- -1.04%
- Pre-ex close
- $21.15
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -13.76%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.43%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.28
- Gap %
- -2.25%
- Pre-ex close
- $19.56
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.91%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.74%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.52
- Gap %
- -0.76%
- Pre-ex close
- $19.71
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.32%
- P&L 5d %
- +6.70%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.52
- Gap %
- -1.12%
- Pre-ex close
- $20.61
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -8.39%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.64%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.52
- Gap %
- -2.29%
- Pre-ex close
- $21.84
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -4.95%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.64%
T Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day315%
- 2–3 days420%
- 4–5 days15%
- 6–10 days210%
- 11–30 days525%
- 30+525%
15% within 1d · 40% within 5d · 75% within 30d
T Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with T's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $56.00
- After-tax dividend
- $36.40
- Slippage round-trip
- -$5.37
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$31.03
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.58%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~29.1%
T Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical T ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · T (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.64% | |
| -3.64% | |
| +2.64% | |
| +1.42% | |
| -1.43% | |
| -3.34% | |
| +1.42% | |
| +1.40% | |
| -6.88% | |
| +1.87% | |
| -3.65% | |
| -5.12% | |
| +1.48% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +1.75% | |
| +1.05% | |
| -2.96% | |
| +1.06% | |
| -1.09% | |
| -0.19% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See T seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for T?
Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for AT&T (T), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 75% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 4 trading days. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take T to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, T touches its pre-ex close in a median of 4 trading days, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 15 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on T large enough to capture?
T has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.92 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for T?
The next ex-dividend date for AT&T (T) is Jul 11, 2026, estimated based on the historical pattern (±2 days).
How does T compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Communication Services, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 90%. T sits at 75% — at or below the sector benchmark.
Why does T dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.