TE Connectivity (TEL) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 89% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.20), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, TEL sits noticeably below the Technology sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Aug 21, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.78.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 89%-6pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.20in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 89% | -6pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.20 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.67% | -0.34pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.26% | +1.36pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 10 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
| Dividend | $0.78 |
| Per-event yield | 0.34% |
| Annualized yield | 1.37% |
| Previously paid | Feb 20, 2026 ($0.71) |
| Last record date | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 13, 2026 |
TEL Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for TE Connectivity (TEL). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.71 | -1.09% | $232.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -13.87% | -0.66% | |
| Q4 | $0.71 | -0.14% | $214.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.43% | +5.58% | |
| Q3 | $0.71 | 0.34% | $200.30 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.12% | +3.45% | |
| Q2 | $0.71 | -1.01% | $162.89 | 10 | no | yes | -4.62% | -0.39% | |
| Q1 | $0.65 | -0.21% | $155.78 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.50% | -0.71% | |
| Q4 | $0.65 | -1.06% | $150.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.06% | +2.96% | |
| Q3 | $0.65 | 0.51% | $150.69 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.15% | +2.36% | |
| Q2 | $0.65 | 0.44% | $151.66 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.35% | -0.86% | |
| Q1 | $0.59 | 0.00% | $142.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.41% | +0.63% | |
| Q4 | $0.59 | -0.31% | $131.77 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.55% | -0.09% | |
| Q3 | $0.59 | 0.27% | $129.45 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.02% | -1.00% | |
| Q2 | $0.59 | -0.52% | $122.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.20% | -1.79% | |
| Q1 | $0.56 | -2.15% | $133.08 | >30 | no | no | -6.47% | -5.30% | |
| Q4 | $0.56 | -2.58% | $125.76 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.31% | +2.22% | |
| Q3 | $0.56 | 0.12% | $135.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.63% | -2.21% | |
| Q2 | $0.56 | -1.33% | $122.32 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.24% | +2.52% | |
| Q1 | $0.50 | -1.76% | $149.74 | >30 | no | no | -10.42% | -3.03% | |
| Q4 | $0.50 | -0.38% | $166.05 | 3 | yes | yes | -8.05% | -5.75% | |
| Q3 | $0.50 | -1.87% | $149.34 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.06% | +1.35% | |
| Q2 | $0.50 | 0.81% | $132.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.55% | +2.35% |
- -0.66%
- +5.58%
- +3.45%
- -0.39%
- -0.71%
- +2.96%
- +2.36%
- -0.86%
- +0.63%
- -0.09%
- -1.00%
- -1.79%
- -5.30%
- +2.22%
- -2.21%
- +2.52%
- -3.03%
- -5.75%
- +1.35%
- +2.35%
TEL Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 14 | 70% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
TEL Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with TEL's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $156.00
- After-tax dividend
- $101.40
- Slippage round-trip
- -$46.48
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$54.92
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.12%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~6.0%
TEL Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical TEL ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · TEL (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.38% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.30% | |
| -3.03% | |
| +0.46% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.45% | |
| -5.30% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.46% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.42% | |
| -0.39% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.31% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.