TE Connectivity (TEL) Dividend Capture: 0.34% per event (1.4% annualized)
TE Connectivity (TEL) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.20), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, TEL sits roughly in line with the Technology sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is May 22, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.78.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 90%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.20in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 90%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.20in line with sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -0.60%-0.26pp vs sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 45%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -3.26%+1.44pp vs sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 10
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
- Dividend
- $0.78
- Per-event yield
- 0.34%
- Annualized yield
- 1.41%
- Previously paid
- Feb 20, 2026 ($0.71)
- Last record date
- Feb 20, 2026
- Last payment date
- Mar 13, 2026
How TEL ranks in Technology
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (48 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#40of 48
Beats ~17% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#1of 48
Beats ~98% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#16of 48
Beats ~67% of peers on this metric
TEL Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for TE Connectivity (TEL). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.71 | -1.09% | $232.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -13.87% | -0.66% | |
| Q4 | $0.71 | -0.14% | $214.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.43% | +5.58% | |
| Q3 | $0.71 | 0.34% | $200.30 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.12% | +3.45% | |
| Q2 | $0.71 | -1.01% | $162.89 | 10 | no | yes | -4.62% | -0.39% | |
| Q1 | $0.65 | -0.21% | $155.78 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.50% | -0.71% | |
| Q4 | $0.65 | -1.06% | $150.52 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.06% | +2.96% | |
| Q3 | $0.65 | 0.51% | $150.69 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.15% | +2.36% | |
| Q2 | $0.65 | 0.44% | $151.66 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.35% | -0.86% | |
| Q1 | $0.59 | 0.00% | $142.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.41% | +0.63% | |
| Q4 | $0.59 | -0.31% | $131.77 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.55% | -0.09% | |
| Q3 | $0.59 | 0.27% | $129.45 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.02% | -1.00% | |
| Q2 | $0.59 | -0.52% | $122.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.20% | -1.79% | |
| Q1 | $0.56 | -2.15% | $133.08 | >30 | no | no | -6.47% | -5.30% | |
| Q4 | $0.56 | -2.58% | $125.76 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.31% | +2.22% | |
| Q3 | $0.56 | 0.12% | $135.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.63% | -2.21% | |
| Q2 | $0.56 | -1.33% | $122.32 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.24% | +2.52% | |
| Q1 | $0.50 | -1.76% | $149.74 | >30 | no | no | -10.42% | -3.03% | |
| Q4 | $0.50 | -0.38% | $166.05 | 3 | yes | yes | -8.05% | -5.75% | |
| Q3 | $0.50 | -1.87% | $149.34 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.06% | +1.35% | |
| Q2 | $0.50 | 0.81% | $132.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.55% | +2.35% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.71
- Gap %
- -1.09%
- Pre-ex close
- $232.40
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -13.87%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.66%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.71
- Gap %
- -0.14%
- Pre-ex close
- $214.49
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.43%
- P&L 5d %
- +5.58%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.71
- Gap %
- 0.34%
- Pre-ex close
- $200.30
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- 0.12%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.45%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.71
- Gap %
- -1.01%
- Pre-ex close
- $162.89
- High touch (td)
- 10
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.62%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.39%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.65
- Gap %
- -0.21%
- Pre-ex close
- $155.78
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.50%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.71%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.65
- Gap %
- -1.06%
- Pre-ex close
- $150.52
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.06%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.96%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.65
- Gap %
- 0.51%
- Pre-ex close
- $150.69
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.15%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.36%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.65
- Gap %
- 0.44%
- Pre-ex close
- $151.66
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.35%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.86%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.59
- Gap %
- 0.00%
- Pre-ex close
- $142.80
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.41%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.63%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.59
- Gap %
- -0.31%
- Pre-ex close
- $131.77
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.55%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.09%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.59
- Gap %
- 0.27%
- Pre-ex close
- $129.45
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.02%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.00%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.59
- Gap %
- -0.52%
- Pre-ex close
- $122.03
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.20%
- P&L 5d %
- -1.79%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.56
- Gap %
- -2.15%
- Pre-ex close
- $133.08
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -6.47%
- P&L 5d %
- -5.30%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.56
- Gap %
- -2.58%
- Pre-ex close
- $125.76
- High touch (td)
- 2
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.31%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.22%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.56
- Gap %
- 0.12%
- Pre-ex close
- $135.97
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -8.63%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.21%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.56
- Gap %
- -1.33%
- Pre-ex close
- $122.32
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.24%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.52%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.50
- Gap %
- -1.76%
- Pre-ex close
- $149.74
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -10.42%
- P&L 5d %
- -3.03%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.50
- Gap %
- -0.38%
- Pre-ex close
- $166.05
- High touch (td)
- 3
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -8.05%
- P&L 5d %
- -5.75%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.50
- Gap %
- -1.87%
- Pre-ex close
- $149.34
- High touch (td)
- 3
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -2.06%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.35%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.50
- Gap %
- 0.81%
- Pre-ex close
- $132.70
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.55%
- P&L 5d %
- +2.35%
TEL Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day1470%
- 2–3 days315%
- 4–5 days00%
- 6–10 days15%
- 11–30 days00%
- 30+210%
70% within 1d · 85% within 5d · 90% within 30d
TEL Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with TEL's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $156.00
- After-tax dividend
- $101.40
- Slippage round-trip
- -$46.48
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$54.92
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.12%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~6.0%
TEL Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical TEL ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · TEL (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.38% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.30% | |
| -3.03% | |
| +0.46% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.45% | |
| -5.30% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.46% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.42% | |
| -0.39% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.31% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See TEL seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for TEL?
Across the last 20 ex-dividend events for TE Connectivity (TEL), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take TEL to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, TEL touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 10 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on TEL large enough to capture?
TEL has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.20 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for TEL?
The next ex-dividend date for TE Connectivity (TEL) is May 22, 2026, confirmed (declared by the company).
How does TEL compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Technology, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. TEL sits at 90% — at or below the sector benchmark.
Why does TEL dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.