First Financial (THFF) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 93% of the last 14 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.51), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, THFF sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 93%-2pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 2d+1.0d vs sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.51+0.20 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 14 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 93% | -2pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 2d | +1.0d vs sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.51 | +0.20 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.98% | -0.41pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -5.68% | -1.30pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 29 | — |
Next ex-dividend
The company has not declared a dividend, and we don't have enough recent history to extrapolate a reliable estimate.
THFF Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for First Financial (THFF). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.56 | -0.44% | $63.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.42% | +7.67% | |
| Q1 | $0.56 | -0.71% | $60.42 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.32% | +3.01% | |
| Q4 | $0.51 | -1.06% | $56.44 | 29 | no | yes | -7.78% | -4.02% | |
| Q3 | $0.51 | -0.98% | $54.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.82% | +5.68% | |
| Q2 | $0.51 | -1.00% | $48.98 | 16 | no | yes | -14.15% | -10.35% | |
| Q1 | $0.51 | -0.46% | $45.83 | 2 | yes | yes | -6.94% | -2.68% | |
| Q4 | $0.45 | -1.62% | $43.85 | 11 | no | yes | -7.48% | -4.31% | |
| Q3 | $0.45 | -0.89% | $36.88 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.42% | +1.19% | |
| Q1 | $0.45 | -0.95% | $38.09 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.21% | -2.57% | |
| Q4 | $0.45 | -0.77% | $44.34 | >30 | no | no | -9.07% | -4.83% | |
| Q2 | $0.54 | -1.14% | $35.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.17% | -7.09% | |
| Q1 | $0.74 | -1.53% | $45.82 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.82% | +1.64% | |
| Q2 | $0.54 | -1.71% | $44.36 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.16% | +3.47% | |
| Q1 | $0.63 | -0.53% | $45.42 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.55% | +1.65% | |
| Q2 | $0.53 | -1.20% | $45.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.39% | -5.54% | |
| Q1 | $0.53 | -0.78% | $42.08 | 22 | no | yes | -5.66% | +0.55% | |
| Q2 | $0.52 | 3.53% | $34.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.16% | +1.98% | |
| Q1 | $0.52 | -1.28% | $45.45 | >30 | no | no | -5.70% | -1.83% | |
| Q2 | $0.52 | -0.99% | $39.28 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.11% | -0.13% | |
| Q1 | $0.51 | -0.74% | $43.01 | 21 | no | yes | -13.02% | -7.28% |
- +7.67%
- +3.01%
- -4.02%
- +5.68%
- -10.35%
- -2.68%
- -4.31%
- +1.19%
- -2.57%
- -4.83%
- -7.09%
- +1.64%
- +3.47%
- +1.65%
- -5.54%
- +0.55%
- +1.98%
- -1.83%
- -0.13%
- -7.28%
THFF Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 8 | 40% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 5 | 25% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
THFF Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with THFF's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $112.00
- After-tax dividend
- $72.80
- Slippage round-trip
- -$12.64
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$60.16
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.48%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~24.0%
THFF Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical THFF ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · THFF (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -7.28% | |
| +1.32% | |
| -1.83% | |
| +1.49% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +1.17% | |
| +1.39% | |
| +1.22% | |
| +1.62% | |
| +1.54% | |
| -4.83% | |
| +1.18% | |
| +1.22% | |
| -4.31% | |
| +1.11% | |
| -10.35% | |
| +0.94% | |
| -4.02% | |
| +0.93% | |
| +0.89% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.