What is the dividend capture success rate for THFF?

Across the last 15 ex-dividend events for First Financial (THFF), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 93% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.

How long does it take THFF to recover its dividend gap?

Historically, THFF touches its pre-ex close in a median of 2 trading days, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 29 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.

Is the dividend on THFF large enough to capture?

THFF has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.53 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.

How does THFF compare to its sector for dividend capture?

Within Financial Services, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. THFF sits at 93% — at or below the sector benchmark.

Why does THFF dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?

A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".

How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?

Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.

What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?

Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.

First Financial (THFF) Dividend Capture: 0.89% per event (3.4% annualized)

Updated May 6, 202615 eventshigh

First Financial

THFF

First Financial (THFF) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 93% of the last 15 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.53), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.

Versus its sector, THFF sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.

Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit.

Touch rate (30d): 93%-2pp vs sector
Median days-to-touch: 2din line with sector
Signal-to-noise: 0.53+0.22 vs sector

Recovery engine

TL;DR over the most recent 15 events.

30-day touch rate: 93%
-2pp vs sector
Median days-to-touch: 2d
in line with sector
Signal-to-noise (div / ATR): 0.53
+0.22 vs sector
Avg gap on ex-date: -1.00%
-0.43pp vs sector
Win rate at MOC exit: 45%
Median drawdown during hold: -5.68%
-1.29pp vs sector
Best / worst touch (days): 1 / 29

Next ex-dividend

The company has not declared a dividend, and we don't have enough recent history to extrapolate a reliable estimate.

How THFF ranks in Financial Services

Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (101 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.

Full sector ranking

30-day touch rate
#68of 101
Beats ~33% of peers on this metric
Median days to touch
#92of 101
Beats ~9% of peers on this metric
Signal-to-noise
#11of 101
Beats ~89% of peers on this metric

THFF Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events

Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for First Financial (THFF). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.

						Recovered 5d	Recovered 30d
Apr 1, 2026	Q2	$0.56	-0.44%	$63.20	1	yes	yes	-1.42%	+7.67%
Jan 2, 2026	Q1	$0.56	-0.71%	$60.42	2	yes	yes	-2.32%	+3.01%
Oct 1, 2025	Q4	$0.51	-1.06%	$56.44	29	no	yes	-7.78%	-4.02%
Jul 1, 2025	Q3	$0.51	-0.98%	$54.19	1	yes	yes	-2.82%	+5.68%
Apr 1, 2025	Q2	$0.51	-1.00%	$48.98	16	no	yes	-14.15%	-10.35%
Jan 3, 2025	Q1	$0.51	-0.46%	$45.83	2	yes	yes	-6.94%	-2.68%
Oct 1, 2024	Q4	$0.45	-1.62%	$43.85	11	no	yes	-7.48%	-4.31%
Jul 1, 2024	Q3	$0.45	-0.89%	$36.88	2	yes	yes	-3.42%	+1.19%
Mar 28, 2024	Q1	$0.45	-0.95%	$38.09	1	yes	yes	-9.21%	-2.57%
Dec 29, 2023	Q4	$0.45	-0.77%	$44.34	>30	no	no	-9.07%	-4.83%
Jun 15, 2023	Q2	$0.54	-1.14%	$35.12	1	yes	yes	-10.17%	-7.09%
Jan 5, 2023	Q1	$0.74	-1.53%	$45.82	4	yes	yes	-3.82%	+1.64%
Jun 16, 2022	Q2	$0.54	-1.71%	$44.36	1	yes	yes	-2.16%	+3.47%
Jan 6, 2022	Q1	$0.63	-0.53%	$45.42	1	yes	yes	-2.55%	+1.65%
Jun 16, 2021	Q2	$0.53	-1.20%	$45.14	1	yes	yes	-9.39%	-5.54%
Jan 7, 2021	Q1	$0.53	-0.78%	$42.08	22	no	yes	-5.66%	+0.55%
Jun 12, 2020	Q2	$0.52	3.53%	$34.82	1	yes	yes	-3.16%	+1.98%
Jan 7, 2020	Q1	$0.52	-1.28%	$45.45	>30	no	no	-5.70%	-1.83%
Jun 14, 2019	Q2	$0.52	-0.99%	$39.28	4	yes	yes	-3.11%	-0.13%
Jan 7, 2019	Q1	$0.51	-0.74%	$43.01	21	no	yes	-13.02%	-7.28%

Ex-date Apr 1, 2026Q2
Dividend
$0.56
Gap %
-0.44%
Pre-ex close
$63.20
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-1.42%
P&L 5d %
+7.67%
Ex-date Jan 2, 2026Q1
Dividend
$0.56
Gap %
-0.71%
Pre-ex close
$60.42
High touch (td)
2
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-2.32%
P&L 5d %
+3.01%
Ex-date Oct 1, 2025Q4
Dividend
$0.51
Gap %
-1.06%
Pre-ex close
$56.44
High touch (td)
29
Recovered 5d
no
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-7.78%
P&L 5d %
-4.02%
Ex-date Jul 1, 2025Q3
Dividend
$0.51
Gap %
-0.98%
Pre-ex close
$54.19
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-2.82%
P&L 5d %
+5.68%
Ex-date Apr 1, 2025Q2
Dividend
$0.51
Gap %
-1.00%
Pre-ex close
$48.98
High touch (td)
16
Recovered 5d
no
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-14.15%
P&L 5d %
-10.35%
Ex-date Jan 3, 2025Q1
Dividend
$0.51
Gap %
-0.46%
Pre-ex close
$45.83
High touch (td)
2
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-6.94%
P&L 5d %
-2.68%
Ex-date Oct 1, 2024Q4
Dividend
$0.45
Gap %
-1.62%
Pre-ex close
$43.85
High touch (td)
11
Recovered 5d
no
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-7.48%
P&L 5d %
-4.31%
Ex-date Jul 1, 2024Q3
Dividend
$0.45
Gap %
-0.89%
Pre-ex close
$36.88
High touch (td)
2
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-3.42%
P&L 5d %
+1.19%
Ex-date Mar 28, 2024Q1
Dividend
$0.45
Gap %
-0.95%
Pre-ex close
$38.09
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-9.21%
P&L 5d %
-2.57%
Ex-date Dec 29, 2023Q4
Dividend
$0.45
Gap %
-0.77%
Pre-ex close
$44.34
High touch (td)
>30
Recovered 5d
no
Recovered 30d
no
Drawdown
-9.07%
P&L 5d %
-4.83%
Ex-date Jun 15, 2023Q2
Dividend
$0.54
Gap %
-1.14%
Pre-ex close
$35.12
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-10.17%
P&L 5d %
-7.09%
Ex-date Jan 5, 2023Q1
Dividend
$0.74
Gap %
-1.53%
Pre-ex close
$45.82
High touch (td)
4
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-3.82%
P&L 5d %
+1.64%
Ex-date Jun 16, 2022Q2
Dividend
$0.54
Gap %
-1.71%
Pre-ex close
$44.36
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-2.16%
P&L 5d %
+3.47%
Ex-date Jan 6, 2022Q1
Dividend
$0.63
Gap %
-0.53%
Pre-ex close
$45.42
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-2.55%
P&L 5d %
+1.65%
Ex-date Jun 16, 2021Q2
Dividend
$0.53
Gap %
-1.20%
Pre-ex close
$45.14
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-9.39%
P&L 5d %
-5.54%
Ex-date Jan 7, 2021Q1
Dividend
$0.53
Gap %
-0.78%
Pre-ex close
$42.08
High touch (td)
22
Recovered 5d
no
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-5.66%
P&L 5d %
+0.55%
Ex-date Jun 12, 2020Q2
Dividend
$0.52
Gap %
3.53%
Pre-ex close
$34.82
High touch (td)
1
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-3.16%
P&L 5d %
+1.98%
Ex-date Jan 7, 2020Q1
Dividend
$0.52
Gap %
-1.28%
Pre-ex close
$45.45
High touch (td)
>30
Recovered 5d
no
Recovered 30d
no
Drawdown
-5.70%
P&L 5d %
-1.83%
Ex-date Jun 14, 2019Q2
Dividend
$0.52
Gap %
-0.99%
Pre-ex close
$39.28
High touch (td)
4
Recovered 5d
yes
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-3.11%
P&L 5d %
-0.13%
Ex-date Jan 7, 2019Q1
Dividend
$0.51
Gap %
-0.74%
Pre-ex close
$43.01
High touch (td)
21
Recovered 5d
no
Recovered 30d
yes
Drawdown
-13.02%
P&L 5d %
-7.28%

THFF Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution

20 events analyzedHigh touched pre-ex within 5 trading days: 65% (13 events)

≤ 1 day
840%
2–3 days
315%
4–5 days
210%
6–10 days
00%
11–30 days
525%
30+
210%

40% within 1d · 65% within 5d · 90% within 30d

THFF Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield

Pre-filled with THFF's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.

THFF dividend ($)THFF price ($)SharesHold (days)Tax %?Slippage % per leg

Slippage preset

Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.

Display

Gross dividend: $112.00
After-tax dividend: $72.80
Slippage round-trip: -$12.64
Net if price returns to pre-ex: +$60.16
Required recovery to break even: 0.00%
Per-event after-tax yield: +0.48%
Annual if all succeed: ~24.0%

Scenariosbase rate 93%

Best (limit fills)+$60.16

Average (base rate)+$52.69

Worst (no recovery)$51.84

Open in full calculator →

THFF Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator

Replay every historical THFF ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.

Limit window:Quarter:

Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).

Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).

Avg P&L per trade(20 events)-0.80%

Win rate (20 trades)

70%

Cumulative P&L

-16.05%Sum of per-event % (not compounded)

Buy & hold (same sample)

+72.03%Span: Jan 7, 2019 → Apr 1, 2026 · long-horizon total return vs repeating capture cycles

Best event

Jan 5, 2023+1.62%

Worst event

Apr 1, 2025-10.35%

Cumulative P&L (equity curve)

Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.

Jan 7, 2019Apr 1, 2026

Per-event P&L distribution

20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).

<-3%

-3..-1%

-1..0%

0..1%

1..3%

>3%

Scenario P&L by event · THFF (20)

Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.

Ex-date	P&L
Jan 7, 2019	-7.28%
Jun 14, 2019	+1.32%
Jan 7, 2020	-1.83%
Jun 12, 2020	+1.49%
Jan 7, 2021	+0.55%
Jun 16, 2021	+1.17%
Jan 6, 2022	+1.39%
Jun 16, 2022	+1.22%
Jan 5, 2023	+1.62%
Jun 15, 2023	+1.54%
Dec 29, 2023	-4.83%
Mar 28, 2024	+1.18%
Jul 1, 2024	+1.22%
Oct 1, 2024	-4.31%
Jan 3, 2025	+1.11%
Apr 1, 2025	-10.35%
Jul 1, 2025	+0.94%
Oct 1, 2025	-4.02%
Jan 2, 2026	+0.93%
Apr 1, 2026	+0.89%

Looking for full price seasonality? See THFF seasonality →

Frequently asked questions

What is the dividend capture success rate for THFF?: Across the last 15 ex-dividend events for First Financial (THFF), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 93% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take THFF to recover its dividend gap?: Historically, THFF touches its pre-ex close in a median of 2 trading days, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 29 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on THFF large enough to capture?: THFF has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.53 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
How does THFF compare to its sector for dividend capture?: Within Financial Services, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 95%. THFF sits at 93% — at or below the sector benchmark.
Why does THFF dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?: A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?: Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?: Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.