T-Mobile US (TMUS) Dividend Capture: 0.48% per event (2.0% annualized)
TMUS
T-Mobile US (TMUS) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 10 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.25), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, TMUS sits materially above the Communication Services sector benchmark of 90%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is May 29, 2026, with an expected dividend of $1.02.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+10pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.25in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 10 events.
- 30-day touch rate
- 100%+10pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise (div / ATR)
- 0.25in line with sector
- Avg gap on ex-date
- -0.09%+0.39pp vs sector
- Win rate at MOC exit
- 64%
- Median drawdown during hold
- -4.92%in line with sector
- Best / worst touch (days)
- 1 / 1
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
- Dividend
- $1.02
- Per-event yield
- 0.48%
- Annualized yield
- 2.03%
- Previously paid
- Feb 27, 2026 ($1.02)
- Last record date
- Feb 27, 2026
- Last payment date
- Mar 12, 2026
How TMUS ranks in Communication Services
Compared with other stocks in this sector that pass our capture-quality filter (15 tickers). Lower rank number is better on every metric below.
- 30-day touch rate#1of 15
Beats ~93% of peers on this metric
- Median days to touch#1of 15
Beats ~93% of peers on this metric
- Signal-to-noise#8of 15
Beats ~47% of peers on this metric
TMUS Dividend Capture History — Last 11 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for T-Mobile US (TMUS). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.02 | 0.13% | $213.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.94% | +4.43% | |
| Q4 | $1.02 | -0.55% | $206.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.80% | +1.03% | |
| Q3 | $0.88 | -0.61% | $250.56 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.25% | -2.71% | |
| Q2 | $0.88 | 0.12% | $239.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.92% | +3.11% | |
| Q1 | $0.88 | 0.79% | $264.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.02% | +0.74% | |
| Q4 | $0.88 | 0.09% | $244.92 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.87% | -0.04% | |
| Q3 | $0.65 | -0.06% | $200.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.73% | -2.06% | |
| Q2 | $0.65 | -0.36% | $170.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.55% | +5.72% | |
| Q1 | $0.65 | 0.38% | $163.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.09% | +0.76% | |
| Q4 | $0.65 | -0.83% | $149.55 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.91% | +4.99% | |
| Q2 | $4.06 | -31.38% | $23.68 | >30 | no | no | -32.39% | -7.81% |
Q1
- Dividend
- $1.02
- Gap %
- 0.13%
- Pre-ex close
- $213.15
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.94%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.43%
Q4
- Dividend
- $1.02
- Gap %
- -0.55%
- Pre-ex close
- $206.90
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.80%
- P&L 5d %
- +1.03%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.88
- Gap %
- -0.61%
- Pre-ex close
- $250.56
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -5.25%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.71%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.88
- Gap %
- 0.12%
- Pre-ex close
- $239.30
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -4.92%
- P&L 5d %
- +3.11%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.88
- Gap %
- 0.79%
- Pre-ex close
- $264.17
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.02%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.74%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.88
- Gap %
- 0.09%
- Pre-ex close
- $244.92
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -6.87%
- P&L 5d %
- -0.04%
Q3
- Dividend
- $0.65
- Gap %
- -0.06%
- Pre-ex close
- $200.08
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -3.73%
- P&L 5d %
- -2.06%
Q2
- Dividend
- $0.65
- Gap %
- -0.36%
- Pre-ex close
- $170.70
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.55%
- P&L 5d %
- +5.72%
Q1
- Dividend
- $0.65
- Gap %
- 0.38%
- Pre-ex close
- $163.80
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -1.09%
- P&L 5d %
- +0.76%
Q4
- Dividend
- $0.65
- Gap %
- -0.83%
- Pre-ex close
- $149.55
- High touch (td)
- 1
- Recovered 5d
- yes
- Recovered 30d
- yes
- Drawdown
- -0.91%
- P&L 5d %
- +4.99%
Q2
- Dividend
- $4.06
- Gap %
- -31.38%
- Pre-ex close
- $23.68
- High touch (td)
- >30
- Recovered 5d
- no
- Recovered 30d
- no
- Drawdown
- -32.39%
- P&L 5d %
- -7.81%
TMUS Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
- ≤ 1 day1091%
- 2–3 days00%
- 4–5 days00%
- 6–10 days00%
- 11–30 days00%
- 30+19%
91% within 1d · 91% within 5d · 91% within 30d
TMUS Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with TMUS's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
Holding shorter than the IRS 61-day rule disqualifies the dividend from “qualified” status — it is taxed as ordinary income at your marginal rate. Adjust Tax % accordingly.
- Gross dividend
- $204.00
- After-tax dividend
- $132.60
- Slippage round-trip
- -$42.63
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$89.97
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.21%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~10.6%
TMUS Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical TMUS ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close (limit-order P&L on first intraday touch), or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan and see realized P&L per event.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
11 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · TMUS (11)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -7.81% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.48% |
Looking for full price seasonality? See TMUS seasonality →
Frequently asked questions
What is the dividend capture success rate for TMUS?
Across the last 10 ex-dividend events for T-Mobile US (TMUS), the post-ex intraday high reached the pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of cases, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day. We measure recovery via intraday high because that is when a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close would actually fill, ending the trade at break-even with the dividend pocketed.
How long does it take TMUS to recover its dividend gap?
Historically, TMUS touches its pre-ex close in a median of 1 trading day, with the best case at 1 and the worst case at 1 trading days within our 30-day measurement window. A stricter close-based recovery (mark-to-MOC) is also computed in the database; explore it with the per-ticker simulator’s “Hold N days, exit MOC” mode rather than in the event table.
Is the dividend on TMUS large enough to capture?
TMUS has a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.25 (dividend / 14-day ATR). Values above 1.0 indicate the dividend is larger than the typical daily price swing, making capture trades more viable; below 0.5 means typical daily noise can easily wipe out the gain.
When is the next ex-dividend date for TMUS?
The next ex-dividend date for T-Mobile US (TMUS) is May 29, 2026, confirmed (declared by the company).
How does TMUS compare to its sector for dividend capture?
Within Communication Services, the median 30-day pre-ex touch rate is 90%. TMUS sits at 100% — above the sector benchmark.
Why does TMUS dividend capture measure recovery via intraday high, not close?
A realistic capture trade exits via a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close: the moment the post-ex intraday high touches that level, the order fills and the trader pockets the dividend at break-even. Measuring recovery via close is stricter (mark-to-MOC); we expose that path in the per-ticker simulator as the "Hold N days, exit MOC" mode. The high-based primary metric directly answers the trader-facing question "would my limit have filled?" — close-based answers "would I have been flat at the bell?".
How are dividend capture trades taxed in the US?
Holding period matters. Dividends are "qualified" (taxed at the long-term capital gains rate, 0/15/20%) only when the underlying shares are held for more than 60 days during the 121-day window centered on the ex-dividend date. Dividend capture trades typically hold less than 61 days, so the dividend is taxed at your ordinary income bracket. Always consult a qualified tax advisor.
What are the main risks of a dividend capture strategy?
Three structural risks: (1) the share price may not recover the gap within your holding window; (2) ordinary-income tax can consume the after-tax yield; (3) transaction costs and bid/ask slippage can wipe out small dividends. Historical statistics measure base rates; they do not guarantee any single trade will work.