T-Mobile US (TMUS) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 10 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.25), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, TMUS sits materially above the Communication Services sector benchmark of 90%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 28, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+10pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.25in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 10 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +10pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.25 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.09% | +0.40pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 64% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.92% | -0.17pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 1 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
| Dividend | $1.02 |
| Per-event yield | 0.48% |
| Annualized yield | 2.10% |
| Previously paid | Feb 27, 2026 ($1.02) |
| Last record date | Feb 27, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 12, 2026 |
TMUS Dividend Capture History — Last 11 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for T-Mobile US (TMUS). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.02 | 0.13% | $213.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.94% | +4.43% | |
| Q4 | $1.02 | -0.55% | $206.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.80% | +1.03% | |
| Q3 | $0.88 | -0.61% | $250.56 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.25% | -2.71% | |
| Q2 | $0.88 | 0.12% | $239.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.92% | +3.11% | |
| Q1 | $0.88 | 0.79% | $264.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.02% | +0.74% | |
| Q4 | $0.88 | 0.09% | $244.92 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.87% | -0.04% | |
| Q3 | $0.65 | -0.06% | $200.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.73% | -2.06% | |
| Q2 | $0.65 | -0.36% | $170.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.55% | +5.72% | |
| Q1 | $0.65 | 0.38% | $163.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.09% | +0.76% | |
| Q4 | $0.65 | -0.83% | $149.55 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.91% | +4.99% | |
| Q2 | $4.06 | -31.38% | $23.68 | >30 | no | no | -32.39% | -7.81% |
- +4.43%
- +1.03%
- -2.71%
- +3.11%
- +0.74%
- -0.04%
- -2.06%
- +5.72%
- +0.76%
- +4.99%
- -7.81%
TMUS Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 10 | 91% | |
| 2–3 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 9% |
TMUS Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with TMUS's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $204.00
- After-tax dividend
- $132.60
- Slippage round-trip
- -$42.63
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$89.97
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.21%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~10.6%
TMUS Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical TMUS ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
11 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · TMUS (11)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -7.81% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.48% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.